DOLAR BLUE 7.70
Ultima actualización: 14:21hs
Actualidad y política
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hernan1974
- Mensajes: 14653
- Registrado: Mar Mar 03, 2009 2:48 pm
Re: Actualidad y política
Seba escribió:El blue
uhhh!
menos mal que tengo oficiales que estan subiendo!
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Shakespeare
- Mensajes: 11751
- Registrado: Mar Oct 07, 2008 9:27 pm
Re: Actualidad y política
Seba escribió:El blue
es porque llueven petrodólares luego del acuerdo del Ayatolah Timberland. Hay demasiada liquidez y te los tiran x la cabeza, pagate un put xque vuelve a 5,30
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Shakespeare
- Mensajes: 11751
- Registrado: Mar Oct 07, 2008 9:27 pm
Re: Actualidad y política
El jeque Filmus y el Ayatolah Twitterman están peregrinando a La Meca. Isaac Delira golpeando su zapan en el muro de los lamentos y la Iddishe Mamme del Pañuelo Blanco con el Talmud en la Gran Sinagoga de Jerusalén.
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Alfredo 2011
- Mensajes: 26637
- Registrado: Jue Jul 14, 2011 10:59 am
Re: Actualidad y política
Un buen clima de negocios.......Y futuras inversiones, claro.-
El lado "B" de los plazos fijos y el porqué crecen si pagan en un año lo que trepó el dólar blue en sólo un mes
http://www.iprofesional.com/notas/15430 ... slo-un-mes
El lado "B" de los plazos fijos y el porqué crecen si pagan en un año lo que trepó el dólar blue en sólo un mes
http://www.iprofesional.com/notas/15430 ... slo-un-mes
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Alfredo 2011
- Mensajes: 26637
- Registrado: Jue Jul 14, 2011 10:59 am
Re: Actualidad y política
APUESTA MILLONARIA
En 90 días, Soros ganó US$ 1.000 millones contra el yen
El multimillonario y filántropo estadounidense George Soros, dueño del fondo de cobertura Soros Fund Management, ha ganado US$ 1.000 millones desde noviembre en apuestas contra el yen, informó ‘The Wall Street Journal’.
http://www.urgente24.com/210721-en-90-d ... tra-el-yen
En 90 días, Soros ganó US$ 1.000 millones contra el yen
El multimillonario y filántropo estadounidense George Soros, dueño del fondo de cobertura Soros Fund Management, ha ganado US$ 1.000 millones desde noviembre en apuestas contra el yen, informó ‘The Wall Street Journal’.
http://www.urgente24.com/210721-en-90-d ... tra-el-yen
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Alfredo 2011
- Mensajes: 26637
- Registrado: Jue Jul 14, 2011 10:59 am
Re: Actualidad y política
Sureño escribió:Qué será de la vida de Chavez? hay alguna novedad?
Una versión más.......
14/02/2013| 11:24
VERSIÓN
¿Hugo Chávez con muerte cerebral?
Según Berenice Gómez Velázquez, periodista de radio Caracas, Hugo Chávez sufrió muerte cerebral el pasado 30 de diciembre y aseguró que diferentes cuadros militares y políticos de Venezuela ya lo saben. Entretanto, el canciller Nicolás Maduro asegura que el mandatario está en un tratamiento "duro y complejo".
Sigue
http://www.urgente24.com/210711-%C2%BFh ... e-cerebral
Re: Actualidad y política
Peru - 6.3%
crisis? what crisis?
crisis? what crisis?
Re: Actualidad y política
Informe del Citi:
Argentina – Ready to Devalue?
The rapid depreciation of the parallel FX in Argentina since the start of the
year has generated speculation of devaluation of the official rate. Particularly
after domestic prices have been frozen for 60 days (begging the question of what
will happen on Day 61) and Venezuela devalued the USDVEB from 4.3 to 6.3 on
Friday of last week. To shed light on this issue, we present three alternative
scenarios of what a devaluation would look like if it happens, as we think it will with
40% probability, within the next three months. The current situation is one in which
there are three FX rates for the USDARS: the official one (5.0); the blue-chip one,
which is implicit in the price of securities that trade in dollars abroad and in pesos
at home; and the blue FX, which trades illegally in the parallel market. As we write,
the gap between the blue and blue-chip rates is negligible, but that between any of
these two and the official rate is 35%. In other words, the free market rates are
trading around ARS7.7 per USD.
The only reason we see for not devaluing over the next three months is to
avoid “making waves” in 2013 ahead of the October midterm election, which
is crucial to decide whether the incumbents will stay in power or not beyond
2015. In this sense, it is important to note that, though the president cannot be
constitutionally reelected for a third term, if she runs a good election, she may try to
reform the Constitution. And, even if she fails to reform the Constitution, she may
still want to increase the chances of success in the next presidential election of a
successor from her own party that she trust he or she can carry the torch.
Going now to the alternative scenarios, let us start with the two that are less
likely but still merit consideration given that there has been some
speculation about them. The first scenario is the introduction of an official dual
exchange regime. This essentially consists of the blue and the blue-chip markets
being replaced by an official floating rate that coexists with the one that exists
today. If so, there would be a commercial rate of 5.0 that increases at the crawl
rate set by the central bank (which we estimate will be 20% for the whole year) and
a financial rate, which will be flexible, albeit with some central bank intervention. A
regime like this would allow the government of Argentina, if it so wants, to eliminate
all the quantitative controls on imports and capital outflows that exist today, but it
would not rid the economy of a positive gap between the two exchange rates.
Which, given the persistence of the fiscal deficit financed with monetary expansion,
would imply that the now official gap would become a barometer of country risk. All
said, we give this scenario a 10% probability of occurrence.
The second scenario is one in which the government devalues the current
official rate from 5.0 to 7.5-8.0, hence unifying the market, and fixes the
nominal exchange at this new level for an indefinite period of time, as it did in
1985 during what it was called the “Austral Plan.” At that time, after an initial
inflationary shock, inflationary expectations suddenly dropped and the economy
recovered helping the government of then President Alfonsín to win a midterm
election. While this plan is politically attractive, the devil is in the implementation.
To limit the initial inflationary impact, the government would have to raise taxes on
traditional exports and subsidize consumption of foodstuffs, energy, and other
basic goods. There would be a one-off authorized adjustment in prices, including
utility tariffs, and then prices would be frozen indefinitely. Ideally for the
government, the freezing of the nominal exchange rate and prices would keep
inflation and interest rates low until at least the election. But, as before, lack of
fiscal and monetary discipline would render the plan unsustainable in the long run,
as was the case of the Austral Plan, which lasted exactly nine months. We think
that this scenario also has 10% probability of occurrence.
The last scenario, which carries the remaining 20% probability, is for the
government to create a second official rate, higher than the existing one, but
also pegged through a sliding parity to the USD. The two rates could then be
adjusted over time at different speeds. The higher rate, which could be
something like 6.5ARS/USD, intermediate between the current official and parallel
rates, would apply to nontraditional exports and authorized non-essential imports,
and tourism, allowing the government to loosen (but not to eliminate) exchange
controls until the October election. The blue or blue-chip markets, however, will not
disappear and people will likely bet on further devaluations of the official rates
down the road to regain competitiveness. Yet, considering the more gradual nature
of the approach, it would be easier for the government to implement.
Argentina – Ready to Devalue?
The rapid depreciation of the parallel FX in Argentina since the start of the
year has generated speculation of devaluation of the official rate. Particularly
after domestic prices have been frozen for 60 days (begging the question of what
will happen on Day 61) and Venezuela devalued the USDVEB from 4.3 to 6.3 on
Friday of last week. To shed light on this issue, we present three alternative
scenarios of what a devaluation would look like if it happens, as we think it will with
40% probability, within the next three months. The current situation is one in which
there are three FX rates for the USDARS: the official one (5.0); the blue-chip one,
which is implicit in the price of securities that trade in dollars abroad and in pesos
at home; and the blue FX, which trades illegally in the parallel market. As we write,
the gap between the blue and blue-chip rates is negligible, but that between any of
these two and the official rate is 35%. In other words, the free market rates are
trading around ARS7.7 per USD.
The only reason we see for not devaluing over the next three months is to
avoid “making waves” in 2013 ahead of the October midterm election, which
is crucial to decide whether the incumbents will stay in power or not beyond
2015. In this sense, it is important to note that, though the president cannot be
constitutionally reelected for a third term, if she runs a good election, she may try to
reform the Constitution. And, even if she fails to reform the Constitution, she may
still want to increase the chances of success in the next presidential election of a
successor from her own party that she trust he or she can carry the torch.
Going now to the alternative scenarios, let us start with the two that are less
likely but still merit consideration given that there has been some
speculation about them. The first scenario is the introduction of an official dual
exchange regime. This essentially consists of the blue and the blue-chip markets
being replaced by an official floating rate that coexists with the one that exists
today. If so, there would be a commercial rate of 5.0 that increases at the crawl
rate set by the central bank (which we estimate will be 20% for the whole year) and
a financial rate, which will be flexible, albeit with some central bank intervention. A
regime like this would allow the government of Argentina, if it so wants, to eliminate
all the quantitative controls on imports and capital outflows that exist today, but it
would not rid the economy of a positive gap between the two exchange rates.
Which, given the persistence of the fiscal deficit financed with monetary expansion,
would imply that the now official gap would become a barometer of country risk. All
said, we give this scenario a 10% probability of occurrence.
The second scenario is one in which the government devalues the current
official rate from 5.0 to 7.5-8.0, hence unifying the market, and fixes the
nominal exchange at this new level for an indefinite period of time, as it did in
1985 during what it was called the “Austral Plan.” At that time, after an initial
inflationary shock, inflationary expectations suddenly dropped and the economy
recovered helping the government of then President Alfonsín to win a midterm
election. While this plan is politically attractive, the devil is in the implementation.
To limit the initial inflationary impact, the government would have to raise taxes on
traditional exports and subsidize consumption of foodstuffs, energy, and other
basic goods. There would be a one-off authorized adjustment in prices, including
utility tariffs, and then prices would be frozen indefinitely. Ideally for the
government, the freezing of the nominal exchange rate and prices would keep
inflation and interest rates low until at least the election. But, as before, lack of
fiscal and monetary discipline would render the plan unsustainable in the long run,
as was the case of the Austral Plan, which lasted exactly nine months. We think
that this scenario also has 10% probability of occurrence.
The last scenario, which carries the remaining 20% probability, is for the
government to create a second official rate, higher than the existing one, but
also pegged through a sliding parity to the USD. The two rates could then be
adjusted over time at different speeds. The higher rate, which could be
something like 6.5ARS/USD, intermediate between the current official and parallel
rates, would apply to nontraditional exports and authorized non-essential imports,
and tourism, allowing the government to loosen (but not to eliminate) exchange
controls until the October election. The blue or blue-chip markets, however, will not
disappear and people will likely bet on further devaluations of the official rates
down the road to regain competitiveness. Yet, considering the more gradual nature
of the approach, it would be easier for the government to implement.
Re: Actualidad y política
Ayer Ella festejaba que la produccion de oil&gas paro de bajar.
Alguna alegria no viene mal.
Alguna alegria no viene mal.
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TonyMontana
- Mensajes: 7401
- Registrado: Mié Ene 07, 2009 2:09 pm
Re: Actualidad y política
como andan mis tortolitos mesiánicos? lo mandamos a Iran a Caló?
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Shakespeare
- Mensajes: 11751
- Registrado: Mar Oct 07, 2008 9:27 pm
Re: Actualidad y política
Como andan nuestros mujaidines circuncidados?
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