Títulos Públicos

[Marcos_44]

dolar mep con ay24 una dif. de $2.5 con el precio que vende el usd el broker, hay arbitraje o se me escapa algo?

[ljscodex]

linda cola de compra para el a2e2 siendo que practicamente venia desierto o con montos minoristas horribles.

[copero]

Fijate el detalle del programa monetario, pagan todas las letes de aqui a fin de mandato a personas fisicas y el 15 de reprogramacion. El tesoro tiene 6.500 millones de uss...2.000 para pagar letes, 2.000 para intereses y 2.500 para gastos corrientes. Por eso no licitaron mas los 60 millones diarios. Si no viene la plarra del fondo, tienen hasta novienbre cubierto, si viene lo del fondo, le sobraran 4.200 millones . Esta el analisis en los medios, guardaron los uss, para pagar letes , el 100 a particulares y el 15 de reperfilamiento a institucionales.

Todo muy lindo y organizado hasta Noviembre.
Lástima que a partir de Diciembre el país no cierra. Sigue y con toda la deuda que patearon a febrero, más la que ya tenían, más las Leliqs. Sin un dolar real de reservas y sin crédito, y con un gobierno que va a querer y tener que expandir base monetaria.
Aprovechen los momentos de "tregua" ficticia que da el mercado, y anticipense a las próximas "puertas 12"...

[facuramo]

Siendo las 11 am el chanta aún debe el 85% restante de letes vencidas el viernes pasado a personas físicas, a alguien ya le acreditó??

[Goldfinger]

Goldman Sachs says Argentina faces a 'longer and deeper recession' after a month from hell. Here's why things could get as bad as 2001's crisis.

• Amid political uncertainty, Argentina is in the midst of economic crisis after S&P indicated that the country was in selective default. Goldman Sachs warned that its outlook for the country was turning more bearish.
• Goldman expects Argentina's gross domestic product to contract by 3.2% this year and by another 1.6% in 2020, "totaling three consecutive years of recession."
• The bank also sees inflation declining at a slower pace.
• Argentine bond yields have spiked, and the country's currency is plummeting.
• "Things in Argentina are likely will get worse," Pantheon Macroeconomics predicted.

In just a few weeks, Argentina has gone from a plucky country on the long road to economic recovery to a pariah in global markets. The country had been steadily attempting to improve its difficult economic situation under President Mauricio Macri over the past few years, but shock election results on August 11 saw a rise in support for the opposition challenger Alberto Fernández and his running mate, former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

The August vote result spooked investors — the peso plunged 36% against the dollar, the Argentine stock market has halved in value, and investors have fled government bonds, sending yields spiking. This week, the country imposed currency controls, deepening concerns about Argentina's economy amid a terrible month. That brought back painful memories of 2001, when Argentina defaulted on $93 billion worth of sovereign debt, the largest on record.

But even before the capital controls, Goldman Sachs warned that its outlook for the country was turning more bearish. In a note dated August 30, analysts led by Tiago Severo said they expected "a longer and deeper recession amidst higher inflation" — saying Argentina's economic slump was likely to be the longest since the country's disastrous default in 2001.

Goldman expects Argentina's gross domestic product to contract by 3.2% this year and by another 1.6% in 2020, "totaling three consecutive years of recession." The bank also sees inflation declining at a slower pace, "reaching 50% by end-2019 and tracking above 40% during the first half of 2020, with risks skewed to the upside." Investors are worried. The cost of insuring bond debt against default in Argentina has boomed to 3,600 basis points — 360% — on a five-year credit default swap, an insurance product designed to protect bond holders, an increase of 93%. The implied probability of default is now 92%, which could have a major impact on global investors.

S&P also indicated that the country was now in selective default despite Argentina's $57 billion loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund, which was the fund's largest outlay to date when agreed a year ago.

"Things in Argentina are likely will get worse, even with IMF support, and the country will struggle to access to international markets," said Andres Abadia, a senior international economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. 'They are not measures for a normal country' Further deterioration would be likely to cause any remaining investors to flee as Argentina desperately tries to restore order. The IMF announced it would provide an additional $5.4 billion to the country. Inflation is flashing red at 22% for the first half of the year. The central bank has spent nearly $1 billion in reserves since Wednesday, according to Reuters.

"Increased political and policy uncertainty and the large dislocation of broad financial conditions will likely weigh on the economic outlook, almost certainly reversing the tentative stabilization of activity and the somewhat more palpable decline in inflation observed in recent months," Goldman Sachs analysts said.

The Argentine government has hiked short-term interest rates to almost 80% and has moved to unilaterally reclassify the maturities of its short-term debts, a move that is likely to cause concerns among investors. The country's economic minister, Hernan Lacunza, called the measures "uncomfortable" but indicated that without them there would be serious consequences. "They are not measures for a normal country," he said, according to Reuters, citing a radio interview Sunday night.

Even with continued international support, the Argentine economy is walking a tightrope. The country's sovereign default in 2001 still lingers in the minds of investors with the stark possibility of a new populist government coming to power in October, only amplifying concerns.

[DiegoYSalir]

que tranquilo estan los futuros y el mayorista hace unos dias que ni se mueve, arranca taaaaaarde, medio dormilon como el toga se esta poniendo... lo hicimos venir hoy lunes bien temprano dijo (era martes las 12 de medio dia mas o menos

[d34a]

Mucha atencion que el riesgo pais SIGUE ESTANDO ELEVADISIMO


Bonos, solo rebotines por ahora

Cualquier papel que vuele "mal" y BAJAN 10 % O MAS EN UNA JORNADA

Solo digo MUY ATENTOS

Así como las calificadoras Fitch y Standard and Poor's nos pusieron en default y por eso los grandes fondos se desprendieron de bonos bajando lo suficiente para elevar el riesgo país a 2550, ahora nos sacaron de default, con lo que el riesgo país debe volver a la situación anterior de calificación CCC ultra bananera, que estaría cerca de 2000, con lo que sube el valor de los bonos.

[carlob]

vos siempre fuiste medio fana de los bonos en pesos te agarraron en esta vuelta???

Solo en uno, que vencio el viernes y lo reprogramaron. En letes, todas compradas antes del 31 de julio, no tenia ni bonos, ni acciones en cartera hace tiempo. Solo letes y lecap. Saludos.

[gstnbrtl]

YPF ni bien se resuelva el conflicto en chubut va a pegar un salto grande, hace tres días pegó un pico de 9%, después bajó un 16 y ayer tuvo un leve repunte. Yo no creo que vuelva a bajar mucho y en algún momento tendría que dar un salto grande.

Yo no sé si va a dar un salto grande, pero la veo como que ya se hizo percha y está en el subsuelo...

[serpdf]

Puede caer aún más YPF?? Estoy a punto de entrarle fuerte.

yo ya le entre leve en 501/502 el martes creo.

[PAPU07]

Mucha atencion que el riesgo pais SIGUE ESTANDO ELEVADISIMO


Bonos, solo rebotines por ahora

Cualquier papel que vuele "mal" y BAJAN 10 % O MAS EN UNA JORNADA

Solo digo MUY ATENTOS

[enfuca]

Puede caer aún más YPF?? Estoy a punto de entrarle fuerte.

YPF ni bien se resuelva el conflicto en chubut va a pegar un salto grande, hace tres días pegó un pico de 9%, después bajó un 16 y ayer tuvo un leve repunte. Yo no creo que vuelva a bajar mucho y en algún momento tendría que dar un salto grande.

[gstnbrtl]

Puede caer aún más YPF?? Estoy a punto de entrarle fuerte.

[DiegoYSalir]

Sigue el rebote en los bonos. ..riesgo.pais 3.4 por ciento abajo.Veremos luego.

vos siempre fuiste medio fana de los bonos en pesos te agarraron en esta vuelta???

[DiegoYSalir]

Sigue el rebote en los bonos. ..riesgo.pais 3.4 por ciento abajo.Veremos luego.

tenes cuenta afuera? pega alguna captura de los bonetes please carloncho!!!