alejandro escribió:DE CUANDO ES ESA NOTICIA SANTIVALEN?
Saco informe Ayer RJ, segun me comentaron estarian esperando balance para entrarle con todo
pego 2da parte
In our view, COME combines the following investment
positives and negatives:
Positive #1 – Advantageous pricing at E&P company; Compañia General de Combustibles
(CGC): Through its 30% stake, COME has exposure to CGC’s gassy profile and its advantageous
pricing scheme (on incentive plans). CGC offers an above-average presence in the gas
operations in Argentina (65% of total output vs. ~50% at YPF and PZE). We believe that the
economics for gas will remain strong in Argentina, as the country is still importing close to onethird
of the gas consumed in the country; thus, highlighting the need to stimulate local output
through price incentives. After the acquisition of PZE’s assets in the Austral basin (in March
2015), the company’s output jumped from ~9Kboe/ to ~22Kboe/d.
Positive #2 – Growth of Metrotel’s Internet business: Metrotel, a company fully owned by
COME, is one of the fastest growing internet providers in the sector. Metrotel has close to 10k
clients and its customer base has jumped close to 45% since 2011. We expect its client base to
grow by no less than 3-4% y/y benefiting from its active commercial strategy, the low churn in
the corporate business and Metrotel's goal to expand its network presence into the residential
segment.
Positive #3 – Exposure to Construction / Basic Materials through Pranay: Panay (55% owned
since October 2015) is one of the country's largest basic materials groups, with operations in
bricks, cement, glass, tiles and ceramics. The construction sector is one of the most reactive
sectors under positive economic conditions, multiplying by 2-3x GDP growth rates.
Investment Negatives: 1) Non-controlling stake in the main value driver asset, CGC; 2) The
opportunistic nature of Comercial del Plata’s strategy; and 3) Low levels of cash to finance
future acquisitions.
Estimates: We believe that results during 2016 will mainly be driven by the expansion we
foresee in the Metrotel, plus cost efficiencies. Thus, we believe that EBITDA should rise to
US$22 million (vs. US$15 million in 2015E at the official FX). On the bottom line, we expect net
income to reach US$9 million, declining y/y mainly due to the 1x positive results in LT
investments during 2015. Lastly, we are working with an FX of AR$16/US$1 for 2016YE. It is
worth remembering that our estimates do not including results from Pranay, which should
start to be consolidated from 4Q15, as there is no public information about the companies yet.
Valuation: Shares in COME are trading at a 10% discount to our NAV of AR$3.70/share, which is
based on sum-of-the-parts valuation, using different valuation techniques, and applying a
conglomerate discount of a 15%. On a 2016E EV/EBITDA basis, COME shares are selling at 7.3x.
