Kostolany escribió:Me pareció muy interesante y sencillo de leer este artículo reciente de Cavallo y Salvaneschi. "Devaluación y dinámica de la inflación en Argentina", en inglés. Cortito y conciso con varios gráficos con datos interesantes (balance de pagos, balance fiscal, inflación, devaluación, etc) de los períodos 1970-2011 y 1991-2011.
Por si algún otro lo encuentra de interés, lo comparto.
http://www.cavallo.com.ar/wp-content/up ... ation-.pdf
Saludos
Transcribo algo de las conclusiones
The fiscal situation prior the large devaluations was much weaker during the 70’s and 80’s that has been
during the last two decades.
The “Rodrigazo” occurred at the time of a sharp decline in Foreign Terms of Trade following a period of
very favorable external conditions. The other devaluation episodes occurred when Terms of Trade were
significantly less favorable that those that prevail today.
This does not mean that a new “Rodrigazo” is completely out of the scene: if the black market margin
continues to increase and the demand for money starts to go down, the explosive monetary mechanism
of the early seventies may be activated as soon as the foreign terms of trade suffer a sudden
deterioration.
Even if there was an inflationary explosion like that of 1975, the probability of such an episode to turn
into Hyperinflation 1989-1990 style is much lower than in the 80’s because the fiscal situation if far from
being as bad as it was during the 70’s and 80’s.