Otra vez un yanqui de la Cámpora se las ingenió para colar " el relato" en este pasquín , The Guardian , otro medio K .
Por Mark Weisbrot
Argentina and the magic soybean: the commodity export boom that wasn't
Argentina's record levels of employment and massive reductions in poverty have little to do with exports
One of the
great myths about the Argentine economy that is repeated nearly every day is that the rapid growth of the Argentine economy during the past decade has been a "commodity export boom". For example, the New York Times reported last week:
"Riding an export boom for commodities like soybeans, Argentina's economy grew at an average rate of 7.7% from 2004 to 2010, almost
twice the average annual growth of 4.3% in Chile, a country often cited as a model for economic policies, over the same period."
...It turns out that only 12% of Argentina's real GDP growth during this period was due to any kind of exports at all.
And just a fraction of this 12% was due to commodity exports, including soybeans. So Argentina's economic growth from 2002-2010 was not an export-led growth experience, by any stretch of the imagination, still less, a "commodities boom".
The other possibility is based on prices: the price of soybeans and other commodity exports also rose during part of this period. This can boost the economy in various ways, even if the physical amount of exports does not increase as rapidly as the economy. If this were driving Argentina's growth, we would expect the dollar value of these exports to have grown faster than the rest of the economy. But this did not happen either. The value of agricultural exports, including of course soybeans, as a percent of Argentina's GDP didn't rise during the expansion. It was about 5% of GDP when the economy started growing in 2002, and 3.7% of GDP in 2010.
In other words, there is no plausible story that anyone can tell from the data to support the idea that Argentina's growth over the past nine years was driven by a "commodities boom." Why does this matter? Well, as economist Paul Krugman noted yesterday, "articles about Argentina are almost always very negative in tone ―
they are irresponsible, they are renationalizing some industries, they talk populist, so they must be going very badly." Which, he points out, "doesn't speak well for the state of economics reporting." It sure doesn't.
The myth of the "commodities export boom" is one way that Argentina's detractors dismiss Argentina's economic growth as just dumb luck.
But the reality is that the economic expansion has been < a href="
http://www.cepr.net/index.php/publicati ... ns">[u]led by domestic consumption and investment. And it happened because the Argentine government changed its most important macroeconomic choices: on fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies. That is what took Argentina out of its 1998-2002 depression and turned it into the fastest-growing economy in the Americas.[/u]
Now for the world-wide significance of how Argentina's recovery actually happened: as I and many other economists have written, the policies currently being imposed on the eurozone economies – especially the weaker ones – are similar to what Argentina went through during the depression that led to its default and devaluation. These policies were pro-cyclical, meaning that they amplified the impact of the downturn. Together with a fixed, overvalued exchange rate, they made the economy worse. By defaulting on its debt and devaluing its currency, Argentina was freed to change its most important macroeconomic policies.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... NTCMP=SRCH