Mensajepor Phantom » Mié May 11, 2011 11:01 pm
Leé este articulo de BofA y quizas puedas vislumbrar algunas de las posibles razones.....
Avoid ARS-denominated debt in coming months
We forecast rising risks of faster peso depreciation in the coming months, and therefore expect investors to reduce exposure to ARS-denominated assets.
BCRA becomes lender of last resort to the government
The central bank (BCRA) has lent/transferred more than 3% of GDP per year to the government since 2010. The BCRA has been aiding the government via 1) transfers of the profits generated in the previous year, 2) loans and 3) the direct use of international reserves for debt payments. The BCRA used nearly US$6.6bn of "free disposal" reserves (those in excess of the monetary base) last year, and will devote US$9.7bn in 2011.
A rapidly deteriorating BCRA balance sheet
Lending to the government was US$19bn by the end of 2009, and is up to US$36.4bn now. Therefore, net international reserves have dropped to 54% of total assets, from 67% in 2009. BCRA's liquid liabilities have soared in the meantime to US$65bn, up US$18bn from last year.
Harder to increase reserves in 2011
Reserves fell this year in spite of strong BCRA spot purchases. In the year to April 29, the BCRA bought US$4.1bn in the spot market, and yet reserves fell by US$134mn. The use of reserves for debt payments explains part of the drain.
Few reserves left for debt payments in 2012
Gross international reserves will likely total roughly US$49bn by the end of 2011, from US$52bn now. Most of the drop in international reserves will likely take place in 2H 2011. The government will use reserves for the US$2.2bn 2012 Boden payment in August, and the estimated US$2.4bn GDP warrant payment in December. So, we estimate there will be few "freely disposable" reserves left for debt payments in 2012. The monetary base is likely to grow 3035% this year to the equivalent of US$47.9bn, nearly matching the level of international reserves.
A government in search of financing alternatives
The government will need to seek financing alternatives to the use of international reserves next year. Options may include a fiscal adjustment, a higher inflation tax, a weaker ARS or debt issuance. We believe that faster ARS depreciation will most likely be part of the menu.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
