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Credit Suisse
FIXED INCOME RESEARCH & ANALYTICS
Research Notification
EM: More upside
The Fed’s signal last week that it will keep rates at the zero bound at least until late 2014, or perhaps even longer, has strengthened the argument for being long EM assets. Even more importantly, the compression of credit spreads in Italy and Spain, as well as the reduction of stress in the European banking sector following the injection of liquidity by the ECB, removed in the mind of investors the risk of an imminent collapse in Europe. Simultaneously, global growth data have strengthened, reducing the risk of a collapse of demand for EM exports.
Emerging market spreads, currencies, and interest rates have promptly advanced since the beginning of January. We argue, however, that there is still value in each of these asset classes, but with important caveats. The case for being long rates is undermined by the rally that has already occurred and by the very aggressive pricing of US and G3 bonds. In our view, investors should stay close to the benchmark or even underweight duration in their local market portfolios, while emphasizing currency carry. We still see value in EM FX given very loose core monetary policy and falling market volatility – a combination that invites a search for yield. However, EM currencies have recovered quicker and fuller than less liquid investments, and we see lesser upside potential precisely in the countries with stronger fundamentals, such as Latam exporters. Finally, we think that EM sovereign hard currency bonds have ample room to catch up to developed corporates: Their underperformance in the January rally has been notable.
Servicio de traducción express:
Summary: El Credit Suisse ve potencial de crecimiento en los mercados emergentes.
Detailed: (va con cargo - paso el CBU a demanda..
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MINIMO lo que uno va a cobrar en el 2013.
