APBR (ord) APBRA (pref) Petrobras Brasil

[Harry Forever]

Interesante articulo


Saudi Arabia Declares Cease-Fire in Oil War
June 23, 2016 8:16 AM EDT
By Leonid Bershidsky

The new Saudi oil minister, Khalid Al-Falih, says the oil glut is over. That means the kingdom's war against U.S. shale producers is coming to an end, too. Who won it is a tough question to answer; on balance, it's probably the Saudis, but they have paid a huge price, and the surviving U.S. frackers have also benefited.

In September 2014, Saudi Aramco, the kingdom's state oil company, simultaneously increased output and discounts to Asian customers, making it difficult for producers with higher costs to compete. The U.S. shale industry responded with desperate bravado, cutting costs, perfecting technologies and pumping like crazy to avoid defaulting on its debts. Yet, according to Haynes and Boone's Oil Patch Bankruptcy Monitor, 81 North American oil and gas companies have filed for bankruptcy since the beginning of 2015. In Texas alone, there have been 41 bankruptcies, representing $24.3 billion in debt.

As a result, U.S. oil production has declined to late 2014 levels, while Saudi Arabia has defended and indeed increased its market share. Last year. it maintained its export volume to the U.S., while sales to China grew by 4.5 percent and to India by 18 percent.

The North American shale industry knows now that it's at the mercy of Saudi Arabia. The kingdom has more than two million barrels a day -- perhaps even three million if necessary -- of spare production capacity that it can use to flood the market again, drive down prices and render any ambitious American plans useless.
Saudi Arabia and Russia increased their crude oil output (in thousands of barrels a day) while the U.S. retreated

Al-Falih takes a long-term view and expects the oil market to grow, not decline, in absolute terms in the next two decades, despite adverse changes in the energy mix. "Even if the share of oil goes down from, say, 30 to 25 percent, 25 percent of a much bigger global demand means a much higher absolute number of barrels that will be in demand by 2030 or 2040," he told The Houston Chronicle. So it makes more sense to fight for long-term market share rather than a momentarily high price. In that regard, the Saudis have won the oil war.

The repercussions and costs of this victory, however, are harsh. The monetary loss is the most obvious one: At its current output level of 10.2 million barrels a day, Saudi Aramco is making $600 million a day less than if the oil price had stayed above $100 a barrel. The U.S. shale business is missing out on about as much revenue, considering it has lost 1 million barrels a day of production compared with its peak, but the U.S. economy has, on balance, benefited from lower oil prices, while the Saudi one has suffered because it's almost entirely oil-dependent. This is prompting the big policy rethink in Riyad. As Al-Falih, an ally of reform architect Prince Mohammed bin Salman, said in the Houston Chronicle interview, "nobody has the intention of turning off the oil economy in Saudi Arabia. We're trying to build it up. But what we hope while we're doing this is the non-oil economy will grow even faster."

The Saudi victory is also hollower than it might be because some of the kingdom's competitors did not retreat -- on the contrary, they, too, boosted production. While private U.S. companies responded as expected to overwhelming market pressure -- they consolidated, worked on costs, cut investments or went belly up -- the Saudis' major competitor, Russia, redoubled efforts to pump as much oil as it could, because most of the production is concentrated in government hands and the government needed the revenue. Also, Iran, Saudi Arabia's perennial rival, got a free ride after international sanctions against it were lifted. With production costs not much higher than those for the Saudis, it ratcheted up production quickly, filling in for output drops elsewhere caused by the Saudi policy.

Saudi Arabia can live with these results of its war. The current price level of about $50 a barrel is acceptable, and Al-Falih admits that attempts to target specific price levels by regulating output have failed in the past. Russia and the surviving U.S. shale producers are not at death's door at this price point, either: The former's economic decline will probably end this year, and the latter can start making cautious plans for the future rather than fighting for survival.

The equilibrium is fragile: the market's rebalancing has been accelerated by unexpected disruptions that won't be permanent. So Al-Falih is signaling that his country won't tip the scale by increasing production. According to him, Saudi Arabia would like to "maintain that balance while also giving heed to moderate prices for producers and consumers."

Any number of accidents could disrupt this attempt to stabilize the oil price at the current level. Yet Saudi Arabia's willingness to accept $50 as the new normal should reduce volatility, making the market more boring for speculators but friendlier to oil producers and consumers.

[El Brujo]

....y un día volvió "San CCL"
Bienvenido....como te extrañamos todo este tiempo!!!

[oconner]

Demasiada baja las VIs de los calls. Iba a dar algo de aire, pero al ver las cotizaciones mamita...

[Nadie]

Lee a los grandes, estudia, razona, no te dejes influenciar, solo guiar a tener mas amplitud mental...
Saludos

Yo siempre leo a Hub, eso cuenta? el tema es que ahora esta desaparecido desde el ejercicio de la semana pasada

[hipotecado]

Se vuela infielesss paguennnn peaje topus

[cabeza70]

miren el hch en 15 min que esta ejecutando... seria un lindo intradiario si lo ejecuta...

[Jon_Bir]

Con un ccl de $15 = $ 60
Que sí...que nó....por ahora llevé 124 lotardos de la 54.4 y no sé si cargar más o cubrirme??? difícil por este Brexit molesto pero pinta lindo. qué se yooo

En este momento estamos en veredas opuestas Kechi, me jode el ccl pero mirá la vela que está dejando el dolar index, si no se pone positivo hoy tiene muchas chances de que mañana se pegue una linda levantadita.

[kechi]

Ya la ves en u$ 8,00?

Con un ccl de $15 = $ 60
Que sí...que nó....por ahora llevé 124 lotardos de la 54.4 y no sé si cargar más o cubrirme??? difícil por este Brexit molesto pero pinta lindo. qué se yooo

[fabio]

Ya la ves en u$ 8,00?

La semana pasada la veía abajo de 6,00, es inimputable

[Jon_Bir]

Hasta que no pase los 7,20 ... la local up x la suba del bille

Por eso, le está costando los 7,20 y el bajista number one la ve en 8, me sorprendió.

[oconner]

Ya la ves en u$ 8,00?

Hasta que no pase los 7,20 ... la local up x la suba del bille

[Jon_Bir]

MURALLON DE TITANIO CEMENTICIO EN u$ 8,00 ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ( y maximo anual tambien )

Ya la ves en u$ 8,00?

[Stiffmeister]

[quote="PAPU07"]Bueno, en parte tenes razon, Recordas el cuento ( o chiste) del CAZADOR Y EL GORILA ? ?


MURALLON DE TITANIO CEMENTICIO EN u$ 8,00 ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ( y maximo anual tambien )

JAJAJAJAJJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJ

[PAPU07]

JUAAAAAAAAAAAAA....otro que se llevò a la Cueva la Pebeta y dunga, dunga....juaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

Bueno, en parte tenes razon, Recordas el cuento ( o chiste) del CAZADOR Y EL GORILA ? ?


MURALLON DE TITANIO CEMENTICIO EN u$ 8,00 ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ( y maximo anual tambien )

[Mongo Aurelius]

puede ser, este papel esta maldito, tipico de brasileros que se la pasan haciendo macumbas y todas esas porquerias. Una vez estaba en Natal en la playa de Pipa, iba caminando de noche y habia unos pañuelos atados entre si con unos palos, la cuestion que pase y lo patie. al otro dia me meti al mar y me quebre el dedo chico del pie con una piedra, me jodio las vacaciones, y al otro dia en una excursion en jeep por las dunas el muy tarado casi vuelca, parecia el viaje del terror, le decia mas despacio y despues me decia que entendia mas rapido la basura que manejaba, no me tiro por poco

Yo vi algo parecido y me intoxiqué con camarones.

Igual resero no se pierde de nada, se lo firmo acá mismo, este papel no supera los $65 de acá a 150 dias. Para abajo tiene todos los precios posibles. Si tiene algo, cuando valga $65 venda el 100% y olvídese que existe Petrobras, al menos hasta que asuma un gobierno democrático.