SURVEY: Argentina's economy likely expanded 3% in April
--April growth slows sharply as construction and manufacturing slide
--Economy cooling after two years of rapid growth
--Private forecasts point to an even sharper downturn
Monthly Gross Domestic Product (Year-On-Year):
Apr Mar Feb Jan Apr11 FY/2011
Forecast: +3.0% +4.1% +4.5% +5.8% +7.4% -
Actual: - +4.0% +5.2% +5.5% +7.1% +8.9%
By Shane Romig
BUENOS AIRES -- Argentina's economy likely slowed further in April amid a downturn in manufacturing and construction activity.
The national statistics agency, Indec, is expected to report that its monthly economic activity indicator rose 3.0% on the year in April, according to the median estimate of more than 50 banks, economic research firms and universities surveyed by the Central Bank of Argentina .
Recent government and private-sector reports point to weak growth in April.
Construction activity fell 3.8% on the year that month, while industrial production was 0.5% lower from April 2011 , according to Indec.
Indec is scheduled to publish the activity indicator, known by its Spanish acronym as Emae, at 3 p.m. EDT Friday . Emae encompasses most of the components used to calculate quarterly gross domestic product.
Indec is thought to overstate economic growth due to the widespread belief among economists that it underreports inflation by a significant margin. Most economists think annual inflation is between 20% and 25%, while Indec's latest estimate was 9.9%.
According to research firm Orlando J Ferreres & Asociados' own activity index, the economy grew just 0.6% on the year in April, and 1.9% during the January- April period.
OJF, as the firm is known, said services are supporting the economy amid a fall in agriculture and industrial production, and a slowdown in construction.
"It's becoming more and more clear that economic activity is showing strong signs of deterioration," OJF said.
After two years of blistering growth, the economy has stalled due to capital controls, import restrictions, inflation and sluggish trade with Brazil .
The central bank's latest GDP forecast puts growth at about 6% in 2012. But many private-sector economists have trimmed their outlook and now expect little if any growth. That marks a notable change of fortunes for an economy that grew 8.9% last year and 9.2% in 2010, thanks in large part to lax fiscal and monetary policy that has fueled a consumer-spending spree.
-Write to Shane Romig at
shane.romig@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
06-14-12 1616ET
Copyright (c) 2012 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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