TXAR Ternium Argentina (ex ERAR)
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juanpablomj
- Mensajes: 1234
- Registrado: Mié Ago 13, 2014 1:35 pm
Re: ERAR Siderar
Me imagino que debe haber nervios por aca, pero tranquilos muchachos, no creo q afecte sustancialmente los resultados de la empresa que de hecho anda muy bien. Tiene poca exposición directa a USA y Ternium Mexico lo mas importante es el mercado interno de Mexico. Fue realmente castigada, y las empresas que andan bien y poseen una valuación baja como es este caso, tarde o temprano se acomoda su cotización. Veanlo como oportunidad y no como una desgracia
Re: ERAR Siderar
Sin desperdicio, recién salido del horno, artículo de una de las más importantes organizaciones en las cuales reside el Poder Mundial, usina de cerebros y coatora en bambalinas de las decisiones de Estrategia norteamericana....
Un párrafo lo condensa todo:
"It was once said that Britain lost its empire in a fit of absent-mindedness; the United States, it now appears, could lose its own in a fit of Donald Trump’s impulsiveness."
https://www.cfr.org/blog/donald-trump-s ... pbC5jb20S1
"Donald Trump, Steel Tariffs, and the Costs of Chaos" Blog Post by Edward Alden
"When President Nixon announced on August 15, 1971 that the United States would impose a 10 percent across-the-board tariff on imports—the most significant import restrictions since the 1930s—it followed an intense weekend of deliberations among his top officials at Camp David. Nixon’s economic brain trust spent three days carefully hammering out the details of the import restraints, and then signaled to the world that the president was prepared to lift them as soon as U.S. trading partners allowed their currencies to rise. The tariffs were removed four months later after a negotiated agreement.
When President Trump announced March 1, 2018 that the United States would impose 25 percent tariffs on imported steel and 10 percent tariffs on aluminum—the most significant import restrictions since 1971—it followed a morning of sheer chaos in the White House. The administration had announced the night before that leading steel and aluminum makers were invited to the White House, leading to speculation that new tariffs would be announced. But in the morning White House officials backed off, with the press office saying instead that it would only be a “listening session.” And then, with the cameras rolling and his own staff apparently unprepared, President Trump announced that the tariffs would be unveiled next week and would be kept in place “for a long period of time.”
It was once said that Britain lost its empire in a fit of absent-mindedness; the United States, it now appears, could lose its own in a fit of Donald Trump’s impulsiveness.
The precise contours of the new measures are still unknown. The administration may exempt still large suppliers like Canada and Brazil, and may exclude some products, though Trump told industry officials he does not want exemptions. There will be frenetic lobbying between now and the final announcement. And the negative market reaction—the Dow Jones fell about 600 points after the announcement—could stay the president’s hand.
But the issue is not simply the economic consequences. The president’s announcement yesterday was the clearest and most disturbing sign yet that he is quite prepared to take ill-considered actions that will chip away at the foundations of the global trading system.
The problems in the steel and aluminum industries are real—global overcapacity caused primarily by Chinese state subsidies to their producers. But the proposed measures are wildly indiscriminate, and will hit many countries, among them the closest U.S. allies and others that have played by the rules of the trading system.
The new tariffs rely on a provision of law—Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 which allows imports to be blocked on national security grounds—that has not been used successfully in decades. Previous administrations had interpreted the provision narrowly, requiring evidence that the military needs of the Pentagon could not be supplied by U.S. production or by close allies like Canada. Trump’s Commerce Department threw away a half century of precedent in finding that steel imports, including from the most-trusted U.S. allies, had caused “a weakening of our internal economy [that] may impair national security.”
Under current global trade rules, the United States will get away with it. Article XXI of the World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements states that countries are free to take actions they deem essential to their security interests. But WTO members have been cautious not to abuse that provision, recognizing the obvious danger. Now the United States—a country that has long championed the WTO system—will blow a giant loophole in the rules that other countries will eagerly walk through. China, India, Brazil and others are more than capable of inventing similar national security rationales for restricting imports.
The most encouraging thing that can be said is that, as the great Yogi Berra once put it, “it ain’t over till it’s over.” The president’s impromptu announcement will generate a huge pushback. The potential losses for the big steel-using manufacturers—including the Big Three auto companies, construction equipment firms like Caterpillar and John Deere and the construction sector more broadly—will have them all beating a path to the White House and Congress.
Trump’s more conventionally-minded aides, like National Economic Advisor Gary Cohn, may succeed in watering down the measures. The Pentagon has also warned about the “negative impact on our key allies.” Foreign governments, including the European Union and China, have said they will retaliate and target U.S. exporters. EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker called the measure “blatant intervention to protect U.S. domestic industry and not based on any national security justification.” Important Trump allies in Congress are in revolt—Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-UT) called the tariffs “a tax hike the American people don’t need and can’t afford.”
But even if the measures finally unveiled are more limited, great damage is being done. The United States built the architecture of the global economy in its image. The WTO was largely a U.S. creation. Now Donald Trump, in a fit of impulsiveness, may tear it all down."
Un párrafo lo condensa todo:
"It was once said that Britain lost its empire in a fit of absent-mindedness; the United States, it now appears, could lose its own in a fit of Donald Trump’s impulsiveness."
https://www.cfr.org/blog/donald-trump-s ... pbC5jb20S1
"Donald Trump, Steel Tariffs, and the Costs of Chaos" Blog Post by Edward Alden
"When President Nixon announced on August 15, 1971 that the United States would impose a 10 percent across-the-board tariff on imports—the most significant import restrictions since the 1930s—it followed an intense weekend of deliberations among his top officials at Camp David. Nixon’s economic brain trust spent three days carefully hammering out the details of the import restraints, and then signaled to the world that the president was prepared to lift them as soon as U.S. trading partners allowed their currencies to rise. The tariffs were removed four months later after a negotiated agreement.
When President Trump announced March 1, 2018 that the United States would impose 25 percent tariffs on imported steel and 10 percent tariffs on aluminum—the most significant import restrictions since 1971—it followed a morning of sheer chaos in the White House. The administration had announced the night before that leading steel and aluminum makers were invited to the White House, leading to speculation that new tariffs would be announced. But in the morning White House officials backed off, with the press office saying instead that it would only be a “listening session.” And then, with the cameras rolling and his own staff apparently unprepared, President Trump announced that the tariffs would be unveiled next week and would be kept in place “for a long period of time.”
It was once said that Britain lost its empire in a fit of absent-mindedness; the United States, it now appears, could lose its own in a fit of Donald Trump’s impulsiveness.
The precise contours of the new measures are still unknown. The administration may exempt still large suppliers like Canada and Brazil, and may exclude some products, though Trump told industry officials he does not want exemptions. There will be frenetic lobbying between now and the final announcement. And the negative market reaction—the Dow Jones fell about 600 points after the announcement—could stay the president’s hand.
But the issue is not simply the economic consequences. The president’s announcement yesterday was the clearest and most disturbing sign yet that he is quite prepared to take ill-considered actions that will chip away at the foundations of the global trading system.
The problems in the steel and aluminum industries are real—global overcapacity caused primarily by Chinese state subsidies to their producers. But the proposed measures are wildly indiscriminate, and will hit many countries, among them the closest U.S. allies and others that have played by the rules of the trading system.
The new tariffs rely on a provision of law—Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 which allows imports to be blocked on national security grounds—that has not been used successfully in decades. Previous administrations had interpreted the provision narrowly, requiring evidence that the military needs of the Pentagon could not be supplied by U.S. production or by close allies like Canada. Trump’s Commerce Department threw away a half century of precedent in finding that steel imports, including from the most-trusted U.S. allies, had caused “a weakening of our internal economy [that] may impair national security.”
Under current global trade rules, the United States will get away with it. Article XXI of the World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements states that countries are free to take actions they deem essential to their security interests. But WTO members have been cautious not to abuse that provision, recognizing the obvious danger. Now the United States—a country that has long championed the WTO system—will blow a giant loophole in the rules that other countries will eagerly walk through. China, India, Brazil and others are more than capable of inventing similar national security rationales for restricting imports.
The most encouraging thing that can be said is that, as the great Yogi Berra once put it, “it ain’t over till it’s over.” The president’s impromptu announcement will generate a huge pushback. The potential losses for the big steel-using manufacturers—including the Big Three auto companies, construction equipment firms like Caterpillar and John Deere and the construction sector more broadly—will have them all beating a path to the White House and Congress.
Trump’s more conventionally-minded aides, like National Economic Advisor Gary Cohn, may succeed in watering down the measures. The Pentagon has also warned about the “negative impact on our key allies.” Foreign governments, including the European Union and China, have said they will retaliate and target U.S. exporters. EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker called the measure “blatant intervention to protect U.S. domestic industry and not based on any national security justification.” Important Trump allies in Congress are in revolt—Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-UT) called the tariffs “a tax hike the American people don’t need and can’t afford.”
But even if the measures finally unveiled are more limited, great damage is being done. The United States built the architecture of the global economy in its image. The WTO was largely a U.S. creation. Now Donald Trump, in a fit of impulsiveness, may tear it all down."
Re: ERAR Siderar
El mayor riesgo para Siderar puede venir quizás por el tema de Brasil. Ellos le venden mucho acero a USA (son el 2ª país detrás de Canada). Hay que ver como juega las posiciones arancelarias en ese sentido con Brasil (Mercosur), si es que ese país empieza a vender el acero que no puede vender a USA a otros paises
Re: ERAR Siderar
Gana 2 mangos por accion y vale menos de $14, este año capaz anda cerca de los 3 u 4 por accion. Por ahora la medida de TRUMP lo unico que logro fue que subiera el precio del acero, en una de esas nos vuelve competitivos en el mercado de USA.
Re: ERAR Siderar
El mercado recuperando y está es de las que más baja... Es basura no hay con qué darle...
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Bochaterow
- Mensajes: 12165
- Registrado: Mié Nov 04, 2015 7:52 pm
Re: ERAR Siderar
El Conde escribió:uppps, esa anduvo cerca del stop, vengo zafando
yo las tengo lanzadas en 4,80 y 5,10 y 5,40 un papel 1,9 lanzadas igual debo estar perdiendo pero muy poquito
Re: ERAR Siderar
El Conde escribió:Baje el stop a 13,50, error, pero bueno, ahí prometo salir.
Como me van quedando pocas hormonas me juego mas al semanal que al diario
. Veremos como queda y mañana en frio ajustamos los 13 o 15 con el grafico en verdes. No se porque pero cuando me hago el trader, en verdes me va mejor, lo respeta mas que en pesos. Cosa de loco.Re: ERAR Siderar
easydoro escribió:En 13.50 le están poniendo el pecho Conde.
Es valor de entrada no de salida. Depende de tu horizonte. No soy quien para aconsejar a nadie.
Hoy creo que hasta WB podría equivocarse...
Para mi que opero normalmente opciones, no me molesta ni que se vaya a 11, pero debo tener un plan y tratar de ejecutarlo, en eso estamos.
Re: ERAR Siderar
Bochaterow escribió:come se aleja de 4
uppps, esa anduvo cerca del stop, vengo zafando
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loco de la bolsa
- Mensajes: 784
- Registrado: Vie Mar 04, 2005 1:01 am
Re: ERAR Siderar
El Conde escribió:Erar abajo de 13,70 Come de 4 y Celu en 13,90 toda mi posición, al borde de saltar mis stops o de hacer un gran trade, me voy a prender una vela.
Lo acompaño con las dos primeras
Y con ningun stop
!!!Re: ERAR Siderar
davinci escribió:hasta que esto no se defina.. como comprar? puede ser barato o muy caro aun.. veremos donde para la sangria.. ojala no sea lo largo que se parece que puede ser..
Sí yo tendría liquidez iría comprando escalonadamente, así lo hice en otras oportunidades como en el Brexit por ejemplo, y salió muy bien..ahora me agarro comprado, en fin...lo que si estoy seguro de no vender a este precio ni mamado, en fin, veremos.
Re: ERAR Siderar
El Conde escribió:Baje el stop a 13,50
En 13.50 le están poniendo el pecho Conde.
Es valor de entrada no de salida. Depende de tu horizonte. No soy quien para aconsejar a nadie.
Hoy creo que hasta WB podría equivocarse...
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Bochaterow
- Mensajes: 12165
- Registrado: Mié Nov 04, 2015 7:52 pm
Re: ERAR Siderar
El Conde escribió:Baje el stop a 13,50
come se aleja de 4
Re: ERAR Siderar
Mike22 escribió:A este precio no recompras los lotes lanzados a 15?
Por otro lado, si claramente tenías un sesgo bajista muy marcado, cómo se te ocurrió comprar lotes de frente iliquidos del panel general?
Yo pasé casi todo a tasa, duration hiper corta en pesos y dólares hace unos meses, pero en renta variable deje sólo las de buenos fundamentos... Cómo dije, al final no sirvieron de nada, más de 25% de pérdida de capital desde máximos.
Vamos a decir la verdad, lo del sesgo bajista muy marcado es una forma de decir, en realidad no tenía ni la más pálida idea de que hacer, me la jugué bear hace un mes aprox., lo de metrogas fue una compra de impulso porque note que se disparó ese día el papel, venía de una baja grande, y esos lotes no se habían movido ni un centavo (ah! y ya estaba medio aburrido de no operar
), de hecho puse la orden un toque mas baja y aun asi me empapelaron...Re: ERAR Siderar
hasta que esto no se defina.. como comprar? puede ser barato o muy caro aun.. veremos donde para la sangria.. ojala no sea lo largo que se parece que puede ser.. 
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