Tweed escribió:Con las ODDS en 97%?
With the rate rise pretty much a done deal, the focus is likely to be on the Fed’s rate hike trajectory. Currently, Fed Funds futures aren’t buying into the Fed’s forecasts which looks for a total of three hikes per annum in 2017, 2018 and 2019. The December 2017 contract implying a rate of 1.25% (suggesting just two hikes in 2017); 1.51% at the end of 2018 (suggesting just two hikes between now and the end of 2018); and 1.695% by the end of 2019 (suggesting three hikes between now and then).
Given that the rate hike is so heavily discounted, the market reaction isn’t likely to take its cues from the rate hike; instead it will look to the FOMC’s projections of the rate path, and perhaps its balance sheet reduction pace. Consequently, if the central bank refrained from lifting rates, an aggressive, dovish market reaction may be likely.
