APBR (ord) APBRA (pref) Petrobras Brasil

[Gaston89]

(DBG) Deutsche Bank : Petrobras : Weaker Reai creates policy ris ks - downgrade to Hold: Weaker Reai creates policy risks - downg rade

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Deutsche Bank : Petrobras : Weaker Reai creates policy risks - downgrade to Hold: Weaker Reai creates policy risks - downgrade
2015-03-05 12:21:57.538 GMT

Synopsis:
*Weak Reai and regulated domestic prices is a dangerous mix

A rapid devaluation of Reai (down 12.1% ytd) on the back of challenging economic conditions and an emerging political crisis in Brazil, combined with a relatively stronger international crude prices (up 9.1% ytd) has resulted in a more rapid than expected convergence of domestic gasoline and diesel prices in Brazil with the import parity. A risk that Petrobras will resume subsidizing the Brazilian economy is increasing, which simultaneously reduces the visibility of the longer-term cash flow outlook for the stock. In light of this policy threat, we downgrade Petrobras to Hold (from Buy).

*Premium pricing no more

We estimate that at today’s prices, domestic wholesale gasoline price in Brazil already represents a 5% discount to import parity, while the wholesale diesel price is still at a premium of 8%. We have estimated previously that higher domestic product prices in Brazil would have contributed an extra c.
$1bn of operating profits for Petrobras in 1Q15. The potential reversal of the pricing relationship (weaker Reai amid continuing price controls) may result in a significant change to our profit outlook for the stock, and represents a new risk to the investment thesis.

*Changes to forecasts and valuation

Our Reai-based EBITDA estimates 2015E and 2016E EBITDA have increased 13% and 24% to reflect weaker Reai (BRL/$ rate is now assumed at 3.0 for 2015 vs
2.63 previously). Our positive operational outlook for Petrobras is contrasted with greater policy risk amid seeming political stalemate and a weakening economic outlook. In light of this policy threat, we believe it is prudent to change our target price methodology focusing on near-term EV/EBITDA multiples as opposed to a DCF valuation. Our new target prices for ordinary and preferred shares at BRL 9.7 and 9.8 are based on a sector average 2015E EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.6 and represent 6% premium to the current share price but a 23% and 25% reduction to our previous price targets.

*To raise or not to raise?

There continues to be a debate on the likelihood of an equity offering by Petrobras. On our revised estimates, we continue to estimate no external funding is required for 2015. The outlook for 2016 is more uncertain: we calculate a funding gap of $16bn, but believe an equity raise can still be avoided.

*Key risks

(1) As an oil and gas producer, Petrobras is susceptible to general commodity price risks; (2) The company is exposed to risks of the on-going Lava Jato corruption probe. Our current forecasts do not include any possible financial effects of this investigation; (3) Petrobras is heavily regulated by the Brazilian government, and there is a risk that future policy decisions will be more negative than we forecast; (4) upside risks include higher than expected production growth and a more benign local pricing environment in Brazil.

[JC07]

muy cortito para hoy : SI BAJA DE LOS SEIS, OLVÍDENSE POR BASTANTE TIEMPO, PUES EN USA POR DEBAJO DE ESE VALOR COMIENZAN A SALIR TODOS LOS GRANDES INVERSORES.
Yo hoy si veo que amaga para abajo no espero mas vendo y se termino esta larga espera sin sentido porque vamos a ver una PBR en precios muchisimo mas abajo,ojala no se de pero todo indica que en brasil comienza una etapa muy caliente y a nosotros seguro nos arrastra
5-3-15 al las 09.23 hs

[Gaston89]

(BN) *SANTANDER COMMENTS ON PETROBRAS IN RESEARCH REPORT

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BN 03/05 12:13 *PETROBRAS NOT EXPECTED TO RAISE DIESEL PRICES SOON: SANTANDER
BN 03/05 12:13 *PETROBRAS DOMESTIC GASOLINE PREMIUM IS DOWN TO 6%: SANTANDER
BN 03/05 12:13 *PETROBRAS CASH FLOW PRESSURED BY WEAKER REAL: SANTANDER

[mediamovil]

PBR EOD Un poco feo ¿no? Muy dificil esto.

[Gaston89]

(BN) *PETROBRAS SAYS BOARD AUTHORIZED $19.1B FINANCING LIMIT 201
5

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BN 03/05 12:02 *PETROBRAS SAYS APPROVAL DOESN'T REQUIRE CO. TO RAISE THE AMOUNT
BN 03/05 12:02 *PETROBRAS COMMENTS ON O ESTADO REPORT IN REGULATORY FILING
BN 03/05 12:01 *PETROBRAS SAYS BOARD AUTHORIZED $19.1B FINANCING LIMIT 2015


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Petrobras Says Board Authorized $19.1b Financing Limit For 2015
2015-03-05 12:05:48.72 GMT


By Katerina Petroff
(Bloomberg) -- Approval decided in board meeting on Feb.
27, Petrobras says in regulatory filing in response to O Estado de S. Paulo report.
* Co. not required to raise such amount
* NOTE: Brazil Treasury May Guarantee Potential Petrobras
Loans: Estado Link
* NOTE: Petrobras Said to Be Authorized to Raise $19b This Yr:
Estado Link

[bolistins]

buen día,
Estaba escuchando un par de analistas, sobre el oil,
En el año 2000, el piso de consolidación fué de 4 meses.
En el año 2009, el piso de consolidación fué de 3 meses.
En el 2015, ya lleva 2 meses....
Hay que ver el escenario con un precio del oil mas arriba!!

[Kubrick]

Conselho da Petrobras autoriza captação de até US$ 19,1 bilhões
De terror

[mediamovil]

BOVESPA EOD la línea blanca es un límite importante. Veremos hoy qué pasa.

Lo único que nos puede salvar es que el mercado vea que la SELIC va a seguir subiendo y empiecen a hacer operaciones de carry trade. Con las tasas que hay un 13% anual en un país investment grade no está mal. Nadie puede dudar que Brasil tiene capacidad de pago mas allá que le quieran bajar la calificación.

[quienduda]

Tanque mirá ese triángulo en citi el año pasado. Por si alguno tiene las tarlipes al piso fíjense todo lo que puede seguir jodiendo por esta zona

[gustavo33]

Pero tengo un papel con esta figura ...
y no se que hacer

[Tanque]

Porque pareciera que cada vez que llega al techo se tiran de cabeza no ?

[Tanque]

Sos malo Quienduda
Y así ?
Qué opinás, mantengo o vendo y espero que quiebre con volumen ?
Y si están distribuyendo en máximos ?

[quienduda]

Pero tengo un papel con esta figura ...
y no se que hacer

Me imagino lo que estaríamos proponiendo...

[valiant]

Pero tengo un papel con esta figura ...
y no se que hacer

jajaja,muy bueno !

[Kubrick]

Y pele debutó con un pibe.

Y PBR me rompio el invicto.

Es el ETF inverso de PBR.. se tradea en el merval? compro cantidad.

Jajajajajaja