la nota completa de jpm es la que sigue:
Argentina: Nosedive in April data warrants revising down official 2012 real GDP forecast by 0.5%-pts to 4% (genuine: 2%)
* Forecast for 2012 real GDP revised down 0.5%-pts to 4% (INDEC) and 2% (genuine)
* Partial April activity data suggest a weak start to 2Q after a better than expected 1Q
Late Friday the last bit of early month indicators for April were released. Partial data suggests that the 2Q started on a very weak note. April real activity-linked tax revenue (-3.3%oya), auto output (-24.4%oya) and cement sales (-16.7%oya) for that month were all soft.
While both domestic and external demand are adjusting, April's auto report suggests that the external sector's drag (particularly Brazil) may be imposing a larger share of the recent burden on the Argentine economy than domestic demand factors. Indeed, in April auto exports were -27.9%oya, almost 4 times more severe than domestic sales which, while weak, posted a -7.1%oya performance. This is consistent with retail business confidence that rebounded visibly in April.
Forecast for 2012 real GDP revised down 0.5%-pts to 4% (INDEC) and 2% (genuine)
Base on this partial data JPMorgan's economic activity model for Argentina suggests that the economy slipped to a genuine 0.0%oya performance in April (or 0.4%oya if adjusted for import restrictions), following a genuine 3.2%oya performance in 1Q (or 3.5%oya if adjusted for import restrictions).
Making reasonable assumptions for INDEC's over-reporting of real GDP, we nudge up our estimate for INDEC's official 1Q12 real GDP to 5.3%oya and 2Q12 real GDP to 2.4%oya (from a prior 3.1%oya). Those adjustments (together with an estimate for INDEC's official real GDP for 3Q12 of 3.4%oya and for 4Q12 of 4.6%oya) translates into a 0.5%-pt reduction in the estimate for INDEC's 2012 real GDP to 4.0% (and for JMorgan's genuine real GDP forecast 2.0%).
Partial April activity data suggest a weak start to 2Q after a better than expected 1Q
Not that INDEC has only reported official economic activity through February (5.1%oya) while JPMorgan's activity model offers a comprehensive assessment of March and a partial assessment of April trends. While the disappointment in terms of the April data is narrowly confined to the available indicators mentioned above, the JPMorgan activity model has been a reliable tool for anticipating trends and provides a solid basis for updating the quarterly forecast.
Most likely, April's weakness will prove exaggerated. Among other things because:
(a) import restrictions were at their tightest at the beginning of 2Q but they are likely to be relaxed in the months ahead as trading partners protest;
(b) the harvest season was poor earlier in the year but should gain momentum as 2Q progresses, thus spurring activity in other sectors;
(c) real estate transactions which have been depressed by regulations limiting USD availability could begin to normalize in the months ahead as mechanisms for settlement are negotiated; and
(d) the month of April this year had two less business days than the same month last year.
But it seems prudent to fine-tune the 2012 forecast assuming a weaker 2Q because of the sharp move down in the partial data for April. The distortions due to import and FX regulations is disrupting activity and it would be reasonable for the government to look for ways to facilitate economic transactions. However, uncertainty over timing of policy adjustments favors downgrading the forecast today and eventually adjusting it if an when the government responds - rather than attempting to forecast the reversal of impediments to activity.
abrazo
salva +4
(mientras tanto pueden retirarse (vender) sin hacer ruido)
