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Argentina: Why is today's GDP release so important?
The deceleration of economic activity in Argentina in the past few months has caused some market participants to worry about the possibility that the administration could alter its pro-growth reporting policy to avoid a 2013 GDP warrant payment. The payment could total close to $3.8bn in 2013, most of it hard-currency-denominated.
We think that if the administration were planning to de-emphasize growth, Q4 2011 numbers would show a significant deceleration, or a tweak to the series, to avoid leaving a high growth carry-over for 2012. That would likely involve front-loading the 2011 GDP series toward the first half - leaving a lower tail, lowering the 2012 growth carry-over, but at the same time posting growth consistent with monthly GDP statistics that showed 8.8% growth in 2011. Figure 1 provides an example of how this would work.
In fact, monthly GDP series (we have data up to December) actually point to a low carry-over for 2012 (Figure 2). Thus, if the administration posts a Q4 2011 number that leaves a strong growth carry-over for 2012, we would consider it an indication that, contrary to investor concerns, the pro-growth INDEC reporting policy continues in March 2012. Thus, as a consequence of an unchanged INDEC reporting policy, we would expect monthly GDP series for January, February, and March to come in on the strong side relative to private estimates. This would provide support to GDP warrants, even if actual privately estimated data are rather weak.
An inspection of the data shows that most of the time, the March release of Q4 GDP leaves a lower carry-over than would be inferred from an examination of the December release of the monthly GDP series. And according to the data, it would be rather easy to push growth carry-over lower this time around, because the monthly GDP series leaves a carry-over that is the second lowest in GDP warrant history. Thus, it will be informative see if there is an effort to boost carry-over in today's release - which would point to a continuation of pro-growth reporting - or not.
In terms of our expectations, we are not of the view that the administration will attempt to push growth lower in 2012 in order to avoid paying the warrants in 2013. A Q4 2011 GDP release of above 7% y/y should be evidence that pro-growth reporting will continue in 2012. Concurrently with Q4 2011 GDP, January monthly official GDP (EMAE) will be reported and we are expecting a 5.3% y/y increase, while private indicators are pointing to around 3% growth in January. For 2012, we are expecting growth at 4.7%, and growth in Q1 2012 at 5% y/y.
Lo subrayado es lo mas relevante.
NO esperan que el gobierno comience a subestimar el crecimiento para evitar el pago del 2013.
Esperan crecimiento de 4.7 % en el 2012, y 5 % en el primer trimestre.
Esperan un EMAE de 5.3 %
