Mensajepor pablo9494 » Vie Feb 24, 2012 10:53 am
Pego este post, que puso Osvaldo en otro lugar foristico...
Wire: BLOOMBERG News (BN) Date: Feb 21 2012 22:00:00
Slowing Loan Growth Shows End of Consumer Boom: Argentina Credit
By Camila Russo and Christine Jenkins
Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Argentine banks are boosting lending at the slowest pace in 20 months as growth in South America’s
second-biggest economy shows signs of weakening following a nine-year expansion.
Total loans outstanding rose 0.6 percent to 273 billion pesos ($63 billion) in January from a month ago, the smallest
increase since May 2010, according to central bank data. Average interest rates for loans surged to 40 percent in December, the
highest since May 2009, the data show. Lending in Brazil rose 2.3 percent to 2 trillion reais ($1.2 trillion) in December from
a month ago as the average rate on personal and business loans fell to 37.1 percent, according to Banco Central do Brasil.
President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner is extending subsidized loans to companies and restricting imports to aid local producers as a drought shrinks the corn crop and economists forecast 2012 growth of 2.8 percent, the least since 2009. Banks are boosting liquidity after deposit growth lagged credit last year and savers withdrew money to buy dollars.
“There’s no doubt growth will slow and, as a result, banks are being more cautious about who they lend to,” said Miguel Kiguel, a former deputy Economy Minister who now runs research company Econviews. “When there is lower growth, the quality of banks’ portfolios declines so they’re more cautious.”
A drought and reduced demand for Argentina’s agriculture products, which account for about half the nation’s export revenue, as well as lower sales of industrial goods to Brazil, will contribute to slower growth, Michael Henderson, an emerging-markets economist at Capital Economics Ltd., wrote in a Feb. 17 report. Henderson forecasts the economy will expand 2.5 percent this year.
Slowing Expansion
Argentina’s economy expanded 5.5 percent in December from a year earlier, the slowest pace since January 2010, the national
statistics institute reported Feb. 17. The economy contracted 0.2 percent from a month earlier, the agency said.
The amount of payments rejected because of bounced checks rose 42 percent to 532 million pesos in November from a year earlier, according to the latest central bank data.
“Given lower growth expectations this year, credit quality deteriorates so banks are more wary,” said Juan Pablo Fuentes,
a Latin America economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania, in a telephone interview. “There’s been less
willingness of banks to lend.” Officials at the Argentine Banking Association declined to comment.
The extra yield investors seek to hold Argentine dollar bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries fell eight basis points to 800 yesterday, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Default Swaps
Warrants linked to economic growth rose 0.05 cent to 14.67 cents, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The peso was
little changed on Feb. 17 at 4.3540 per U.S. dollar. Argentine markets were closed Feb. 20-21 for a national holiday. The cost of protecting Argentine bonds against non-payment for five years with credit-default swaps rose three basis points to 772 yesterday, according to data compiled by CMA. Credit- default swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a government or company fail to adhere to its debt agreements.
Credit growth may pick up as interest rates for loans fall in line with the benchmark deposit rate, said Leonardo Bazzi, the head of research at brokerage Puente Hermanos Sociedad de Bolsa SA in Buenos Aires.
The rate banks pay for 30-day deposits of more than 1 million pesos, known as badlar, plunged 901 basis points to 13.9 percent on Feb. 15 from a three-year high of 22.88 percent in November.
Seasonal Effects
“The fact that deposit rates fell makes it likely that credit rates will fall again and that demand for credit resumes,” Bazzi said in a telephone interview. “Slower credit growth in January could also be due to a seasonal effect.”
Last year total loans surged 35 percent from a year earlier, while deposits increased 18 percent in the same period, according to the central bank. Credit growth that outpaced savings made banks’ liquidity fall to 59.4 percent of total deposits in 2011, the lowest since 2008, according to the central bank.
Deposits lagged behind lending as Argentines withdrew pesos to buy dollars on concern inflation that economists estimate at
23 percent would erode savings. Argentines took $21.5 billion out of the country in 2011, up from $11.4 billion in 2010, the
central bank reported last week. Capital flight slowed to $3.3 billion in the fourth quarter from $8.4 billion in the previous
three months after Fernandez tightened restrictions over the foreign exchange market and ordered energy and mining companies
to repatriate export revenue.
“The capital flight we saw late last year had an impact on banks’ liquidity,” Fuentes said. “Capital flight has waned a bit but it’s still a factor. You’ll keep seeing loan growth decelerate due to lower expectations for growth in the economy.”
No se my friend... este año...o cerramos en 13 magnos o en 19-20...no hay termino medio, hablo para DIC.... y en caso de que sea la 2da opcion creo que MAYO-OCT sera clave...
