andysch04 escribió:GDP Warrants Overvalued to RBS on Slowdown: Argentina Credit
2011-12-16 13:34:03.982 GMT
By Drew Benson
Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Speculation that Argentina’s economy
will slow more than analysts forecast next year is prompting RBS
Securities Inc. and Standard Chartered Bank to say warrants tied
to growth may be overvalued.
The securities, which pay investors every December based on
the previous year’s economic performance, dropped 4.53 cents to
11.47 cents this week after the government made a $2.5 billion
payment. Siobhan Morden, the head of Latin America strategy at
RBS, said capital flight and higher interest rates may curb
growth next year below the threshold needed to justify a payout
in 2013.
“We’re not recommending warrants,” Morden said. “If
you’re going to buy at this level you have to assume higher
growth for next year than has already been discounted.”
Warrant prices more than doubled the past two years to 15.9
cents before this week’s payment. Argentine dollar bonds
returned 0.3 percent in the period, while Brazilian dollar debt
tumbled 23 percent, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. data.
Argentine bonds yield 11.59 percent, the highest among 17
developing nations after Venezuela tracked by JPMorgan’s EMBI+
index.
Argentina issued GDP warrants as an incentive to get
investors to take part in debt restructurings in 2005 and 2010.
If growth next year exceeds the 3.26 percent threshold needed to
trigger a payment in 2013, a fair value for the warrants would
be 12.4 cents to 12.8 cents, according to Morden. Without a 2013
payment, they’re worth 7.43 cents, she said. RBS expects
Argentina’s economy to expand 3.6 percent next year after an
estimated 7.9 percent growth in 2011.
Morden es un pesimo analista, no por nada trabaja en RBS. En un pasaje de la nota dice que el crecimiento 2012 no va a superar la barrera de pago, y al final terminan dando una estimacion de 3.6... una contradiccion a solo unas lineas de distancia.
Por suerte Credit Suisse tiene otra mirada:
Credit Suisse Group AG expects growth will slow to 5
percent next year, enough to justify a warrant payment in 2013,
from an estimated 8.7 percent this year.
“We are recommending our clients take a position in the
warrants because there will again be a payment in 2012 and
possibly in 2013,” said Carola Sandy, an economist with Credit
Suisse in New York.
