GGAL Grupo Financiero Galicia

[jps]

...miren...ya empezamos a ver notas como esta
ya vemos como todo se acomoda....hace una semana era todo hermoso

Emerging Markets Is First Sector to Drop, Sending Warnings of Bear Market
By Toby Connor Feb 24, 2011 9:30 am
Hit hard by food inflation, emerging markets are starting to diverge from the rest of the global stock markets. Transports, also sensitive to inflation, are sending warnings as well.
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Editor's Note: Toby Connor is the author of Gold Scents, a financial blog with a special emphasis on the gold secular bull market.

Bear markets begin when something fundamental breaks. Usually the sector initially affected will roll over before the general market and tends to be a warning sign of what lies ahead.

The last bear market was triggered when the credit bubble created by Alan Greenspan's foolish monetary policy burst. It was exacerbated by Ben Bernanke's foolish attempt to debase the currency and reflate the bubble. All he succeeded in doing was to inflate oil to $147, which put the finishing touches on an already crumbling economy.

The market gave us a warning when the financials began to diverge from the rest of the market. Considering that the banks were one of the leading sectors during the '02-'07 bull the fact that they couldn't follow the rest of the market to new highs after the February '07 correction was a big red flag that the bull was on its last legs.

Bank Chart

I've been saying for more than a year now that the unintended consequences of quantitative easing would be to spike inflation, which in turn would poison the global economy. I knew all along that Bernanke was never going to create any jobs by printing money and of course he hasn't.

So if inflation is going to sink the economy and kill the stock market we should see warning signs from the sectors most affected by rising inflationary pressures, just like the banks warned us in '07 that the fundamentals were broken.

Sure enough I think we are starting to see those warning signs.

Emerging markets have been hit hard by food inflation. We are now seeing food riots in many third-world countries. Emerging markets, just like financials during the last bull, were one of the leading sectors. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM) is now starting to diverge from the rest of the global stock markets. It's now on the verge of breaking back below the November cycle low.

Emerging Market Chart

The other sector that is extremely sensitive to inflation is the transports. When energy costs spike, shipping companies' profit margins are squeezed. The last two days have seen the Dow Transports fold under the pressure of surging oil prices. Keep in mind oil is only on the 17th day of its intermediate cycle. That cycle lasts on average 50 to 70 days. I think we are going to see $5 gasoline by the time the dollar collapses into its three-year cycle low later this spring.

Oil Chart

If the market can recover from the recent correction and make new highs I don't expect the transports will be able to follow. That will set up a Dow Theory non-confirmation and most bear markets begin with a Dow Theory non-confirmation.

China is already in a bear market. I think most emerging markets have probably topped and I doubt the rest of the global markets have more than two or three months left before the next leg down in the secular bear market begins.

I think the brief party created by Bernanke's printing press is about to come to an end.

[turkini]

pd: se me ocurre que hoy va a haber mucha volatilidad diaria en el norte

Sin duda

[jps]

pd: se me ocurre que hoy va a haber mucha volatilidad diaria en el norte

[adrik]

Esta recuperando afuera con volumen...y los tvPx estan quietos....veremos...

[jps]

no lo medi mas..en ts tambien esta cebado
pero hoy no tengo ganas de hacer nada. solo dejar correr
aca estoy lanzado en 6,50 y tengo puts de 6
en ts solo puts de la 90 y en pamp ayer por cautela recompre en la 2,64 y estaba con ganancia y solo tengo unos puts 2,64

estaba pensando que hacer cuando corra algo de la ganancia del puts en ggal, por la poca liquidez de lotes que hay y para tomar algo de ganancia pero no renunciar a la continuidad de la suba, en una de esas lanzar junio tomando una parte importante de lo ganado y quedar calendar, pero si corrio gran parte de ganancia se puede lanzar mucho menos de lo comprado en la 6 abr, por ej. la mitad.....bahh lo voy a ir pensando
otra posibilidad es vender la mitad de los puts pero habria que ver cual es mejor y en funcion de posibles escenarios

[nitramus]

Viste el dolar CCL?? jaja

la verdad que dan ganas de dar a 20 manos pero no hay que cebarse tampoco
dejemos correr...que el adr esta medio neutro (suba ni a palos)

[nitramus]

Parece que no es joda.......salieron a pagar todo a ciegas.......sobre todo en TVPP y GGAL.........operativo ANTILAVADO, jajaja!!

aaahhh bueno...jajaj
estaria bueno confirmarlo

[jps]

la verdad que dan ganas de dar a 20 manos pero no hay que cebarse tampoco
dejemos correr...que el adr esta medio neutro (suba ni a palos)

[chicago]

Si algo le faltaba al mercado a parte de las decepcionantes politicas antimercado de capitales del gobierno y la inseguridad juridica reinante...era la revuelta de libia........

[jps]

aaahhh bueno...jajaj
estaria bueno confirmarlo

[nitramus]

FGS saliendo a poner el colchon a sus tenencias??

Ya el primer genio compró dólar a 4,28, primera operacion del dia
u$s1,401 a $6

[turkini]

Bueno por fin un foro en el que se pueda decir que el TVPP tiene una congestión que cada vez le cuesta mas...
Yo al igual que Mur estoy vendido en la 15MA. como lo dijimos ambos hace varias semanas, pero a diferencia de el yo lleve algo de 15 AB es decir hice un calendar. Pero no me sorprendería para nada que vay a ese soporte por lo menos.

No es dato menor la enorme salida que hubo en bonos, sobre todo en los que se hace contado con liqui. Muchas veces los bonos son los primeros en avisar la tendencia de corto...

[jps]

Ya el primer genio compró dólar a 4,28, primera operacion del dia
u$s1,401 a $6

[murddock]

http://www.ariva.de/US040114GM64

Me parece que hoy rompe los 62 (Tpy)