http://www.forbes.com/sites/samdiedrich ... markets/2/
Moreover, market sentiment seems to be very negative for the time being on emerging market assets. This week the South African Rand has fallen 1.75% against the dollar. Outflows from emerging markets have continued into 2014 with 11 straight weeks of emerging market equity redemptions totaling $1.3 bn (tied with August/October 2011 as the longest outflow streak in 11 years).
However, contrarian investors are starting to look for value. The sell-off has had the effect of improving some forward looking measures of value across EM risk assets. EMBI+ and CEMBI index yields are now near or above 6%, versus hovering around 4.5% at the beginning of last year. P/E ratios in equity markets have dropped and according to a recent Barclays research report, the EM discount over DM is now at 1.4x versus 1.2x a year ago. FX carry signals are also showing more yield than they have in recent years.
However, although commodity prices may remain weak, the dollar strong, and investor flows anemic for some time to come, many long term investors are beginning to look for value.
Investors need to be cautious about where they chose to invest as many areas that are ‘cheap’ are likely to get even cheaper. Emerging market credit is cheaper than it was in recent years, but still faces unattractive asymmetry in light of the hawkish shift of the Fed. Equities appear attractive in places, but it’s critical for investors to proceed cautiously, as the dynamics can vary broadly from country to country and region to region. Look for increased dispersion in EM prospects this year and a few likely spectacular failures. Overall however, it may be a reasonably attractive entry point for long term investors to begin to dip their toes.