valiant escribió: hay tanta guita esperando la oportunidad de una baja , que seguramente se resumirá a una correccion transitoria.
en los graficos semanales se veía una correccion muy similar a la de mayo -agosto de 2010 y por ahora cumple.
acá no habrá apocalipsis,porque sencillamente no hay adonde ir y no hay inversiones rentables.
y liquidez,eso si que sobra.
murddock escribió: FALSO
Mutual Fund Cash Levels
1) Major rallies occurred in 1974, 1982, and 1990 when the cash levels were greater than 11%.
2) The market sold off in 1973, 1976, 2000 and 2007 when cash levels were below 4.5%.
3) A low of 3.9% in occurred 05/1972. The market top was 12/1972 followed by a 46% decline.
4) The next historical low was 4.0% on March 2000 as the S&P reached its peak. Prices held up to make a lower high in September 2000 and then sold off for a year to a 43% decline.
5) The next historic low of 3.5% was set in June and July 2007. The price top occurred several months later in October 2007 and prices sold off for 1.4 years to a 56% decline.
6) The May 2011 level was 3.5% compared to 3.4% in April and 3.5% in May 2010. Cash levels have been in a range of 3.4% - 3.8% for a year and a half as stock prices have continued to rise. This is quite different from prior history and is evidence of the Fed propping up the market. This cannot continue indefinitely. When Fed support ends the market is facing a long decline similar to 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 (40-60%).
http://home.comcast.net/~RoyAshworth/Mu ... Levels.htm
Si la FED no interviene esto se sigue derritiendo. Previo rebote por supuesto ahora si con el volumen mañana deberia dar op. de entrar para algun rebote cho**. But, bear market underway.
