DIA Dow Jones 30 (ETF)

[elcata]

Me lo mandaron de afuera , un banco , parece que le quieren dar mas para arriba que opinan

More Evidence of an Intermediate-term Rally – Part II

SUMMARY

Our broader market view remains unchanged – intermediate-term indicators, measuring multi-month shifts, continue to bottom and turn up from oversold levels for stock markets globally, and bond yields and industrial commodities are pointing to further upside in the coming weeks and potentially months.
The technical backdrop for a pending 4-year cycle reset is potentially developing as equity markets hold and rally from key long-term trend line support at 15-month mva’s.
Sector leadership is shifting from defense back toward Cyclicals with new relative highs expanding for pro-economy sectors, such as Materials, Industrials, Energy and Technology, followed more recently by Consumer Discretionary and Financials.


OUTLOOK

Last week: Holding and rallying from important support. Last week’s trading defined another important technical marker supporting the case for an intermediate-term recovery developing, as outlined in our July 8th and 12th notes. In mid July, most equity markets had stalled under key resistance near 50-dma’s, coinciding with 3-month downtrends. However, early last week, the S&P held and rallied from important trading support at its 15-dma’s to close the week marginally above the mid July highs.

S&P 1115-1120 next important resistance band. The technical data continue to point to an unfolding intermediate-term (multi-month) recovery underway. Further upside through the next key resistance band between 1115-1120, near the 75-dma (1118) and 200-dma (1113) would confirm an intermediate-term reversal, with potential to challenge the April highs or higher in the coming months.

Starting the bottoming process for a 4-year cycle low near the 15-month mva. If we are correct that an intermediate-term low is developing, it could also lead to the initial stages of a more important 4-year cycle ‘low’ developing. In other words, while equity markets are by no means ‘out of the woods’ and the risk window concerning a cycle peak has yet to close, we would expect the unfolding intermediate-term recovery to quickly reverse the pessimistic consensus sentiment, and the consensus technical view fixated on a cycle peak to that of cycle pause or cycle reset. Equity markets are effectively beginning to bounce from near their 15-month mva’s, which has historically served as an important longer-term inflection point.

Supporting Technical Points

U.S. equity indexes along with European, Asian and Emerging markets, China’s Shanghai
Index and Shanghai Property Index remain key indexes bottoming intermediate-term. In addition, internal indicators (Percentage of Stocks Above Their 50- and 200-dma’s) are bottoming.

Industrial commodities notably Copper is bottoming intermediate-term.
10-year bond yields led by Europe (Germany), but with U.S. 10-year bond yields (2.99%) poised to turn up on a move above 3.022%. Also technically noteworthy is the spread between 10’s and 2’s showing evidence of bottoming intermediate-term.

Long Ideas: Focus on stocks leading the intermediate-term rally making new relative highs on our heat maps. Industrials, Materials, Technology and Consumer Discretionary stand out as emerging themes. Financials: AXP, CNA, AFL, GNW. Consumer: VMED, AN, TRW, F, FOSL, LTD, GES, ARO. Technology: ANSS, RHT, CTXS, APH, BMC, ATML, NCR, CREE, TDC. Industrials: CAT, ETN, UTX, JOYG, CHRW, CNW, CR, ALEX, CPA, PCP, GE, CBI, TK, OC. Materials: PPG, ALB, BLL, SEE, GEF, X, FCX, CLF, ATI, IP. Energy: CXO, OIS.



Robert Sluymer, CFA
Managing Director - U.S. Technical Research

RBC Capital Markets

[mendezfederico]

Che cerato, mira el bolonki que armaste

[nitramus]

Amigo Phantom, Ud acierta por leguas lo que puedo aportar. Ni loco me atreveria a decir si tuve razon o no, el unico que SIEMPRE tiene razón es el MERCADO, jaja!!

Un abrazo!

P.D por ahora la pelea del intra está en 10.500 primera resistencia luego de quebrar los 10.360.

[El rosarino]

Con el SPX tocando 1112,80 puntos quienes esperaban el pullback a la SMA200 después del Death Cross....están hechos.

Y ahora? Cerró ya?

Quiero mas!!! El Indu rompio la SMA de 200....

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU& ... 8339462831

[Kicker]

Adentro en FAZ a 13.75
SMA200 + Death Cross + el mufa de mi amigo no pueden fallarme...

voy a intentar recomprar en 13.45 si veo un poco de lateralizacion en el intradiario, sino hasta 12.60 no hay nada...
no le creo ni medio a esta suba pero tampoco como vidrio ...

[elcata]

FAZ puede subir pero estan todo jugando a una baja que nunca viene , yo estoy liquido como un loco , sali con lindas ganacias de DRYS , de CENX y BAC hoy , iba a meter mas guita en otras , lo veo para arriba al mrk , pero espero que confirme pasando minimo 10600 , ahi meto guita de vuelta , pero FAZ de corto , en el intra ni idea


Abrazo y suerte a todos