C Citigroup Inc.

[Darth Trader]

No funciono el link les copio la nota

Citigroup Stock Proving Irresistible to Hedge Funds (Update2)
February 17, 2010, 04:57 PM EST More From Businessweek

By Nikolaj Gammeltoft and Whitney Kisling

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Firms run by John Paulson, Eric Mindich and George Soros purchased almost half a billion shares in Citigroup Inc. last quarter as more than 120 hedge funds said they bought stock in the bank.

Paulson & Co. reported a stake equal to 506.7 million shares in New York-based Citigroup, up from about 300 million at the end of the third quarter, according to a government filing yesterday. Mindich’s Eton Park Capital Management LP acquired 138 million shares, making the company its largest holding. Soros Fund Management LLC reported 94.7 million shares worth $313.4 million, a filing showed.

Investors may be betting on a rebound in Citigroup after it lost as much as 94 percent of its value during the credit crisis. The purchases came in the same quarter that the third- largest U.S. financial company sold more than 5 billion new shares to help repay government bailouts.

“It clearly doesn’t take a lot to get a decent amount of shares in Citi,” said Christian Thwaites, president and chief executive officer of Sentinel Investments in Montpelier, Vermont, which manages $23 billion. “If the hedge funds are taking any position in it, it’s a feeling that there might be some value to be had.”

Citigroup stock bought by hedge funds outnumbered the amount sold by a ratio of more than 10 to 1 in the October-to- December period, with about 1.2 billion shares added on a net basis, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings compiled by Bloomberg.



Tepper, Berkowitz, Loeb



David Tepper’s Appaloosa Management LP increased its stake by 73 percent, adding 58.4 million shares during the fourth quarter. Tepper, whose flagship Appaloosa Investment LP I fund achieved a 117.3 percent return for the nine months through Sept. 30, began buying bank-related securities early last year, saying people were “in a panic,” driving the stocks to underpriced levels. Appaloosa Management wasn’t available by phone and didn’t immediately respond to an email.

Fairholme Capital Management LLC run by Bruce R. Berkowitz, named U.S. stock mutual-fund manager of the decade last month, bought 214.7 million shares valued at $710.7 million. Hedge fund manager Daniel Loeb’s 15-year-old Third Point LLC also took a new position, adding 25 million shares worth $82.8 million. Soros Fund, Fairholme Capital and Third Point didn’t respond to messages left after normal business hours yesterday.



Average Price



The shares traded for an average of $4.10 in the quarter, 24 percent above its closing price yesterday of $3.31, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The company had 28.5 billion shares outstanding as of Dec. 31, the data show. Citigroup gained 3 percent to $3.41 in New York trading today.

Paulson, who earned about $2 billion last year in part by betting the housing market would collapse, started buying his Citigroup stake in the third quarter. His New York-based firm manages about $32 billion overall. Armel Leslie, a spokesman for Paulson, declined to comment.

Eton Park, the New York-based firm founded in 2004 by former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. executive Mindich, said its stake in the bank was valued at $457 million as of Dec. 31, according to a filing. Mary Beth Grover, a spokeswoman for Eton Park, declined to comment.



45 Days



Money managers who oversee more than $100 million in equities must file a Form 13F within 45 days of each quarter’s end to list their U.S.-traded stocks, options and convertible bonds. Hedge funds are mostly private pools of capital whose managers participate substantially in the profits from speculating on whether the price of assets will rise or fall.

Citigroup posted a $7.6 billion fourth-quarter loss on costs to exit the U.S. bailout program, giving the company its second straight unprofitable year. Chief Executive Officer Vikram S. Pandit booked an $8 billion pretax charge when he repaid $20 billion of bailout funds in December. Revenue missed analysts’ estimates as trading results fell from the third quarter, helping push the shares down 9.3 percent from their 2010 high.

“The stock has been beaten up,” said Matt McCormick, a banking-industry analyst and portfolio manager at Bahl & Gaynor Inc. in Cincinnati, which oversees $2.7 billion. “The bad news has been priced in.”

Taxpayers still own 7.7 billion Citigroup shares, and Pandit failed to restore the bank to profitability in his second full year in the top job. The 53-year-old took over in December 2007 following the ouster of Charles O. “Chuck” Prince.



Profit Growth



Citigroup is forecast to earn 9 cents a share this year, or 2 percent of what it made in 2005, based on Bloomberg’s analyst survey. That’s partly because Citigroup has had to issue almost 23 billion new shares to bolster a weakened capital base. Investors who were shareholders prior to the financial crisis were left with about one-fifth their original stakes.

Hedge funds may be speculating on a break-up of Citigroup into individual businesses, according to Diane Garnick, a New York-based investment strategist at Invesco Ltd., which manages about $400 billion.

“The sum of the parts is worth less than each individual part,” said Garnick. “It is easier for investors to assign value to a company if it is broken up into its many component parts. In this market environment people are starting to reward single business unit companies.”




--Editors: Chris Nagi, Daniel Hauck



To contact the reporters on this story: Nikolaj Gammeltoft in New York at +1-212-617-1061 or ngammeltoft@bloomberg.net; Whitney Kisling in New York at +1-212-617-7904 or wkisling@bloomberg.net.



To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at +1-212-617-5919 or nbaker7@bloomberg.net.

[Darth Trader]

Interesante comentario sobre los fondos y las gentes que se estan subiendo a citi, siguen llegando y como ustedes saben cuando ellos llegan es que la fiesta va a iniciar.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-0 ... ulson.html

[El rosarino]

Entiendo murddock, en eso estoy de acuerdo... vos decis que comparando valores relativos entre bancos y financieras, GS esta relativamente mas barato q Citi.... es verdad, coincido (con condiciones de ahora)... ahora si le metemos expectativas, ahi cambia obviamente.

A condiciones de hoy, conviene pagar GS en vez de C.

Muy buena la discusion

Buenas noches a todos

[murddock]

Si por supuesto, es cuestion de expectativas, como decis.

Ahora yo creo que no hace falta que tomes ningun valor historico de referencia. Para mi los Bancos grandes son los que ponen la Bara para medir. Osea si GS a 157 vale 78 B y ponele el mercado se cae y te baja a 120, eso indirectamente te hace bajar el valor de capitalizacion de Citi. Osea dicho en otros Terminos, con un XLF arriba de 14 es una cosa, con un XLF abajo de 13.50 este papel puede ir directo a 2.70. Eso creo. Todo dependera de como se comporte el sector, esto va en bloque, no se va cortar solo el Citi ni para rriba ni para bajo.

[valiant]

mira,yo no creo que pueda valer mas de 4 dolares hasta que no empiece a ganar guita.
cuando empiece a ganar,si eso sucede,veremos.
nunca dije que me parecía que tenia que valer 6 o 7 o diez en estas circunstancias de hoy.

la suerte del precio de este banco está muy atada a la de la economia americana.

[El rosarino]

SI, ese valor de mercado es de burbuja... pero algun valor tenemos que tomar como referncia para trabajar... sino como hacemos para poner un valor de mercado logico? Para que sea logico tiene que partir de algun numero, a ese numero aplicarle un proceso y llegar a otro numero.

Yo creo que tomando como supeusto que los craneos del citi logran sacar el banco adelante como para tener una rentabilidad no historica, sino solo del 10% anual sobre ventas.... y considerando que las ventas que tiene ahora se mantienen.... 4 dolares puede valer la accion

Ahora, si unno piensa que los craneos del citi no van a poder lograr por lo menos un 10% de rentabilidad sobre ventas... ahi si, el banco vale 1 dolar. Eso es lo que creo que vos pensas murddock? Yo pienso que por lo menos un 10% tienen que ganar.....

Creo que la discusion esta planteada entre los que piensan q se puede lograr rentabilidad moderada y los que no.

[murddock]

NO.

GS a 157 no vale 128 B, vale 78 B, no es lo mismo.

Osea esta valiendo hoy 20 mil palos mas el Citi cuasi fundido que GS. Pero si queres no compares con GS, compara con JPM. Es absurdo por donde lo mires Valiant.

Te digo mas si el Estado no hubiera comprado el 37% del Bank este grupo ya hubiera ido a desguace. La unica razon x la que no se fue a la lona es porque le puso toda la Teca el Grone.

[valiant]

gs esta apenas por debajo de aquel precio de burbuja.
llego a valer en la cuspide 250 con capital de 6 = 150b
ahora ronda 160 con capital de 8=128 b

estoy buscando el capital de gs a ver cuanto es.
no tomen en cuenta los 8 que puse

[valiant]

gs esta apenas por debajo de aquel precio de burbuja.
llego a valer en la cuspide 250 con capital de 6 = 150b
ahora ronda 160 con capital de 8=128 b

[murddock]

Pero que sentido tiene comparar con los 50 del 2007?? En esa epoca todo el sector estaba valuado a precios de burbuja. Es como que me hables de los 100 de ABK que hoy vale menos de 1 USD o lso 70 mangos de Fannie Freddie o cuando AIG estaba en maximos antes del split. Eso ya fue es historia y nadie sabe cuantos años van a tener que pasar para volver a ver esas valuaciones.

[valiant]

estamos mezclando peras con manzanas.

[El rosarino]

Valiant, me da 260.000 millones de dolares (50 x 5.225 millones de acciones a ese momento)

Ahora tendria menos de la mitad del valor de mercado....murddock.... no suena muy loco para mi gusto ese valor de mercado de 100 mil palos... igual, es para pensarlo un rato... porque por otro lado, como vos decis, no puede tener mas valor de mercado q GS....es para pensar...

[valiant]

rosarino,cual era el valor de mercado del citi cuando valía 50 dolares?

[El rosarino]

Si murddock, en eso tenes toda la razon. Hoy por hoy te tendrian que pagar para tener acciones del citi

Pero si suponemos que el banco vuelve a operar normal (en lo referido a margenes sobre ventas, ingresos, etc.) tendria que valer 4 dolares.... pero como vos decis, en este momento el mercado paga 90% expectativas (el otro 10% es valor libros )

[murddock]

Pero Rosarino, si tener 28.8 B de acciones emitidas. Estas hablando de 100 Mil Palos verdes que esta valiendo hoy el C x mercado. Estas suponiendo demasiado. Porque si todo eso que decis no se da lo que se esta pagando hoy este Bank es pura expectativa.
Yo cometi un error veo, que algunos sites estan desactualizados y aun no toman en cuenta la ultima emision de 5 B de acciones, con lo cual el Shares Outstanding veo que es casi 29 B y no 23 B.

Yo solo digo que hoy x hoy, con el Grupo perdiendo plata 100 Mil palos verdes este Bank no puede valer ni en Joda. Pero bue, cada uno sabra lo que paga.