Foro de Rava Bursátil

pablo9494 escribió: Igualmente la parte "dinamica" es un 30% de la tenencia...se entiende?

martin escribió:Mi deseo es que la suba sea gradual.....
No estoy ansioso porque vuele.....

pablo9494 escribió:Igualmente la parte "dinamica" es un 30% de la tenencia...se entiende?

Arucho escribió: Como lo van a entender si algunos no saben sacar el 30% de 100

pablo9494 escribió:Fijate que no hay ventas casi hasta 12.70, con unos palitos de nominales llegamos a los 12.70...ahora...es real ese 12.70?

pablo9494 escribió:Igualmente la parte "dinamica" es un 30% de la tenencia...se entiende?

apolo1102 escribió:Recien salido del horno:


Credit Suisse
FIXED INCOME RESEARCH & ANALYTICS

Research Notification

Argentina: Switch from EUR to ARS GDP warrants, currency partially hedged


This is a redistribution of EM Fixed Income Views, published on 31 January 2012, with the Argentina trade excerpted here for your convenience.



ARS warrants have lagged and look cheap compared to the expected payout. Our recommended long EUR-denominated GDP warrant position (6 December 2011) has returned approximately 21.65%, outperforming USD and ARS warrants, which returned 9.8% and 13%, respectively, in their own currencies. We still like the warrants because of the high potential upside, but suggest switching into ARS warrants with the market value of the warrants hedged via one-year NDFs. Peso warrants look attractive because they trade on only a small premium to their 2012 expected coupon. In comparison, the price of EUR or USD warrants approximately equals the sum of their 2012 and 2013 coupons. The 2013 coupon is based on this year’s GDP growth, and its value is uncertain (see Exhibit 1). The peso warrants, however, carry additional foreign exchange risk, which we recommend hedging. Note that it is only a partial hedge because of potential convertibility issues. We recommend closing out the long EUR GDP warrants at 11.80 euros and opening a new long ARS GDP warrants at 2.63 (USD price) with a target at 4.65 and a stop loss at 2.25. We also suggest selling ARS one year forward in the NDF market at USDARS 5.15.

Cost of hedging the peso has declined. NDF-implied yields have come down sharply since last year (Exhibit 2). In our view, markets moved from pricing in a one-off devaluation to pricing in a gradual depreciation of the peso, more consistent with the central bank’s apparent strategy. As a result, the one-year NDF yield has fallen to around 18% after trading at above 35% in November. Based on our model, we can calculate the internal rate of return on the expected cash flows of the warrants. The IRR is about 31% for USD warrants, 36% for EUR warrants, and 62.5% for ARS warrants. If we amortize a nearly 18% one-year hedging cost for the price of the warrants, the IRR on the peso warrant drops to 47.8%, still attractive compared to the return on the other warrants. We think these returns are comparable to those on CER bonds, as warrants are essentially a peso inflation-linked instrument. The real yield on Bogar 18s is 13.4%, below that on the warrants. There are two risks to this position, in our view. One is common to all warrants – the probability a slowdown or even a hard landing in Argentina would result in growth dropping below the 3.26% threshold. The risk pertaining to ARS warrants is convertibility risk for the peso.

Tapir escribió:gente necesito un consejo compre a 11,98.. me conviene salir ahora y despues volver a entrar?? o es muy mediocre lo mio?

apolo1102 escribió: Creo, y esto es una opinion, que Pablo esta operando asi... queriendo ganar mas, es como el año pasado pero diferente, le puede salir bien, espero que le salga bien, porque es un amigo.

La conviccion en esto de las inversiones, vale poco, podes estar convencido que se va a 11$ y vender todo, y errarle como el mejor, no ?

AMB escribió: Claro, quiere ganar mas, y hace todo lo posible. Pero cuando vende no lo hace porque ve un techo, sino que se conforma con que le valga una menor expocision al recorte o a la baja pronunciada. En ese sentido veo una conviccion sumamente destacable, quiere ganar mas pero tiene principios de operatoria muy validos en los tiempos que corren ...
lo mio es solo una apreciacion .