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[HerrX]

Info del JPMorgan sobre como interpretar los datos actuales de crecimiento. Estan viendo un crecimiento real de 2.5% para 2012, traducido a 4.5% para el INDEC.


Cross-currents affecting February's partial activity data look extreme

Amid a generalized slowing of the economy partial February activity indicators released early in the month are painting a mixed—if not outright confusing—picture of activity trends early in the year.

Cement sales fell sharply 6.2%oya (see first chart) while auto output rebounded 28.8%oya (see second chart) and tax revenues suggest truth lies somewhere in between (nominal tax revenues were up 28.7%oya, implying that activity-linked revenues were up 3.3%oya in real terms).

These cross-currents are not the only obstacle to making sense of the data flow. Monthly volatility of the cyclically-sensitive sectors has been particularly severe recently. Short-term performance is being affected by regulatory measures, extreme weather, ad-hoc retooling, and energy bottle-necks—making it difficult to distinguish supply and demand factors and disentangle temporary from permanent shocks.

Adding insult to injury, more comprehensive official economic activity releases from INDEC are unreliable while private sector estimates from multiple sources are prone to significant revisions or are less timely.

The 2012 economic downsing—cushioned by controls

Evidently, the economy is slowing but its current pace is highly uncertain. And what the current pace of activity implies about the path going forward is highly debateable since February's data still reflects the economy's transition from last year's severe monetary tightening and slowdown in Brazil and the lags with which the impact of these shocks are now fading varies.

Our forecast implies a genuine slow down of real GDP to 2.5% in 2012 from 7.0% in 2011. That outlook probably translates to 9.2% and 4.5% in the official statistical language of INDEC.

The 2012 forecast reflects expectations that capital controls are effective in reducing capital flight and that downside tail-risks to the agro sector have been dispelled thanks to recent rainfall and a rebound in global prices (see Argentina: the outlook in the aftermath of BoP "lockdown", GDW, Feb 17).

It goes without saying that some policies providing a cushion for the short-term cycle should be expected to be detrimental to medium-term economic prospects—particularly in an economy digesting nominal policy inconsistencies and real microeconomic bottlenecks.

Tracking the forecast: (genuine) activity likely at 3.2%oya in February

In tracking the forecast we rely on a model estimate of activity based on a large set of reliable sectoral data. The output of the model suggests a genuine 4.0%oya pace for the economy in January, compared to 6.4%oya in 4Q11 (see third chart). Whereas this model tracked INDEC's economic activity reading closely until 2007 (when distortions in official statistics became evident), it has thereafter provided a needed contrast to INDEC's official activity readings.

We complement this framework with a separate indicator that uses a small set of partial activity reports readily available early in the month (like cement sales, autos and tax revenues) to anticipate the likely performance of our broad model estimate of economic activity (see fourth chart). Using partial data for February we anticipate that (genuine) economic activity as proxied by our model estimate was running at a 3.2%oya pace that month, or 0.8%-pts less than January.

Assuming no error between both indicators, the economy (which was trending -0.3% 3m/3m, saar through January, see fifth chart) appears to be running at an annualized pace of -1.8% 3m/3m on a seasonally adjusted basis through February. This is not surprising given the magnitud of monetary and fiscal tightening and slowing in external demand that affected the economy at the end of last year but which is in the process of either reversing or moderating now.

Second-guessing INDEC: on average, expecting 2%-pt over-reporting

Finally, what INDEC should choose to publish as its official economic activity is highly uncertain. What can be observed in the historical data is that typically, the gap (representing official over-reporting) in over-year-ago terms between INDEC's measure and our model estimate is 2.0%-pts (see sixth chart below). Thus, a model estimate of 3.2%oya would be expected to anticipate an official performance of 5.2%oya as measured by INDEC.

True, the actual gap varies widely: in the 2008 expansion it was 2.5%-pts; in the 2009 recession it widened to 3.8%-pts while in the 2010 recovery it was negative 0.8%-pts; and in the 2011 expansion it was 2.0%-pts. Averaging the results during the 2009 down-swing and 2010 up-swing results in a 1.5%-pt gap for that period—thus, suggesting that on average the 2.0%-pt estimate provides a reasonable assumption.

Since INDEC's industrial production is always reported ahead of INDEC's activity, in times of high uncertainty as today the former could generate a more significant impression on the market's growth expectations than usual. This was the case when the soft 2.1%oya reading for January IP (INDEC). That impression, however, needs to be viewed with the understanding that measurement of IP (INDEC) tends to trace a downswing more closely than does activity (INDEC), even as it over-reports actual industrial performance when contrasted with private estimates for that sector. Thus, IP (INDEC) a sharp dowswing reported in IP (INDEC) should not be mistakeen for an inclination of the government to more accurately reflect weakness in overall economic activity (see last chart below).

Sldos.

[bullbear]

Fito cobro 100K verdes...(MERCENARIO).

Angola:
1. El Presidente es un dictador y asesino que está en el poder hace 30 años (uuuups los derechos humanos por el upite)
2. Es el País mas corrupto del mundo 1º puesto en el ranking (uuups II)
3. La misión comercial incluye empresarios de "La Salada" (ups III que seriedad...)

Mirá que hay paises mas serios en el mundo eh...pero desesperados por petróleo barato dejamos el discurso de lado? es impresentable por donde se mire...jate jodeeeeeeee

Alto Post !

[Pascua]

Fito cobro 100K verdes...(MERCENARIO).

Angola:
1. El Presidente es un dictador y asesino que está en el poder hace 30 años (uuuups los derechos humanos por el upite)
2. Es el País mas corrupto del mundo 1º puesto en el ranking (uuups II)
3. La misión comercial incluye empresarios de "La Salada" (ups III que seriedad...)

Mirá que hay paises mas serios en el mundo eh...pero desesperados por petróleo barato dejamos el discurso de lado? es impresentable por donde se mire...jate jodeeeeeeee

A fito le pago el gobierno de santa fe...

[fenixio2011]

BLOOMBERG
Ask: 13.60/65
Offer: 13.25/40

Bono muchisimas gracias !

[CIRUZZO EL MILLONARIO]

Fito cobro 100K verdes...(MERCENARIO).

Angola:
1. El Presidente es un dictador y asesino que está en el poder hace 30 años (uuuups los derechos humanos por el upite)
2. Es el País mas corrupto del mundo 1º puesto en el ranking (uuups II)
3. La misión comercial incluye empresarios de "La Salada" (ups III que seriedad...)

Mirá que hay paises mas serios en el mundo eh...pero desesperados por petróleo barato dejamos el discurso de lado? es impresentable por donde se mire...jate jodeeeeeeee

[de_a_poquito]

Les dejo un e-book titulado Innovative Financing for Development, donde en el Capítulo 4 (pág.79) se trata el tema GDP Indexed Bonds -Warrants-

Innovative Financing for Development

Gustavo, muchas gracias!

[martin]

C5N

[Gramar]

Ahí C5N

[Gramar]

Está hablando del Pont.

La sacaron de TN. Dónde se puede ver de corrido?

[martin]

Está hablando del Pont.