TVPP TVPA TVPY Cupones Vinculados al PBI

[DarGomJUNIN]

No , la baja es porque nos encontramos en recesion con alta inflacion, y el cupon no paga en esas condiciones y ademas se derrite como un helado al sol.

La actual crisis economica por la que atravieza el pais es la peor desde 2001. Es peor que la de 2008/2009 porque es endogena, en cambio la anterior fue inducida por el exterior.

De esta crisis no se puede salir como en 2009/2010.

Hace falta un cambio de rumbo, y eso esta muy lejos.

Nuestro rumbo actual de la mano de los irresponsables, corruptos y dementes elegidos en Octubre, es un rumbo de colision.

Tener cupones en esta situacion es suicida.

-La distribución del ingreso es la base fundamental del modelo económico. Néstor Kirchner lo explicaba así: “El PBI se conforma de consumo, inversión y comercio exterior. En los noventa, se probó la teoría del derrame y no funcionó."

-"Ahora lo armamos como se arman los buenos equipos de fútbol: de abajo para arriba. Tenemos que lograr que los cuarenta millones de argentinos sean consumidores plenos. El crecimiento del consumo demanda una mayor inversión."

-"Estos dos ítems, consumo e inversión, impulsan las exportaciones: el consumo te da mayor escala de producción y la inversión, mayor eficiencia. Ambos bajan los costos y permiten competir a nivel internacional."

-"Así crecen consumo, inversión y exportaciones y la economía vuela”."

Estoy desasnando a Josef, "el maestro de Siruela que no sabe leer y puso escuela" (dicho del refranero español).

[JSBach]

Comparto este informe de Barclays de hoy

Argentina: Why is today's GDP release so important?

The deceleration of economic activity in Argentina in the past few months has caused some market participants to worry about the possibility that the administration could alter its pro-growth reporting policy to avoid a 2013 GDP warrant payment. The payment could total close to $3.8bn in 2013, most of it hard-currency-denominated.

We think that if the administration were planning to de-emphasize growth, Q4 2011 numbers would show a significant deceleration, or a tweak to the series, to avoid leaving a high growth carry-over for 2012. That would likely involve front-loading the 2011 GDP series toward the first half - leaving a lower tail, lowering the 2012 growth carry-over, but at the same time posting growth consistent with monthly GDP statistics that showed 8.8% growth in 2011. Figure 1 provides an example of how this would work.

In fact, monthly GDP series (we have data up to December) actually point to a low carry-over for 2012 (Figure 2). Thus, if the administration posts a Q4 2011 number that leaves a strong growth carry-over for 2012, we would consider it an indication that, contrary to investor concerns, the pro-growth INDEC reporting policy continues in March 2012. Thus, as a consequence of an unchanged INDEC reporting policy, we would expect monthly GDP series for January, February, and March to come in on the strong side relative to private estimates. This would provide support to GDP warrants, even if actual privately estimated data are rather weak.

An inspection of the data shows that most of the time, the March release of Q4 GDP leaves a lower carry-over than would be inferred from an examination of the December release of the monthly GDP series. And according to the data, it would be rather easy to push growth carry-over lower this time around, because the monthly GDP series leaves a carry-over that is the second lowest in GDP warrant history. Thus, it will be informative see if there is an effort to boost carry-over in today's release - which would point to a continuation of pro-growth reporting - or not.

In terms of our expectations, we are not of the view that the administration will attempt to push growth lower in 2012 in order to avoid paying the warrants in 2013. A Q4 2011 GDP release of above 7% y/y should be evidence that pro-growth reporting will continue in 2012. Concurrently with Q4 2011 GDP, January monthly official GDP (EMAE) will be reported and we are expecting a 5.3% y/y increase, while private indicators are pointing to around 3% growth in January. For 2012, we are expecting growth at 4.7%, and growth in Q1 2012 at 5% y/y.

Leeeendo optimismo de Barclays... Esperemos que sea asi

[volatil]

No puede venir menos de 5%. ¿fundamentos economicos? ninguno. Conozco como trabaja la psiquis de este gobierno, jamás admitirían una desaceleración mayor . Este es el momento de comprar algo mas y no con la noticia – Ahora, tengo la oportunidad de hacerlo ya, pero no tengo ese otro algo (huevos) que me ayude a tomar la decisión

[Rama]

Comparto este informe de Barclays de hoy

Argentina: Why is today's GDP release so important?

The deceleration of economic activity in Argentina in the past few months has caused some market participants to worry about the possibility that the administration could alter its pro-growth reporting policy to avoid a 2013 GDP warrant payment. The payment could total close to $3.8bn in 2013, most of it hard-currency-denominated.

We think that if the administration were planning to de-emphasize growth, Q4 2011 numbers would show a significant deceleration, or a tweak to the series, to avoid leaving a high growth carry-over for 2012. That would likely involve front-loading the 2011 GDP series toward the first half - leaving a lower tail, lowering the 2012 growth carry-over, but at the same time posting growth consistent with monthly GDP statistics that showed 8.8% growth in 2011. Figure 1 provides an example of how this would work.

In fact, monthly GDP series (we have data up to December) actually point to a low carry-over for 2012 (Figure 2). Thus, if the administration posts a Q4 2011 number that leaves a strong growth carry-over for 2012, we would consider it an indication that, contrary to investor concerns, the pro-growth INDEC reporting policy continues in March 2012. Thus, as a consequence of an unchanged INDEC reporting policy, we would expect monthly GDP series for January, February, and March to come in on the strong side relative to private estimates. This would provide support to GDP warrants, even if actual privately estimated data are rather weak.

An inspection of the data shows that most of the time, the March release of Q4 GDP leaves a lower carry-over than would be inferred from an examination of the December release of the monthly GDP series. And according to the data, it would be rather easy to push growth carry-over lower this time around, because the monthly GDP series leaves a carry-over that is the second lowest in GDP warrant history. Thus, it will be informative see if there is an effort to boost carry-over in today's release - which would point to a continuation of pro-growth reporting - or not.

In terms of our expectations, we are not of the view that the administration will attempt to push growth lower in 2012 in order to avoid paying the warrants in 2013. A Q4 2011 GDP release of above 7% y/y should be evidence that pro-growth reporting will continue in 2012. Concurrently with Q4 2011 GDP, January monthly official GDP (EMAE) will be reported and we are expecting a 5.3% y/y increase, while private indicators are pointing to around 3% growth in January. For 2012, we are expecting growth at 4.7%, and growth in Q1 2012 at 5% y/y.

[martin]

Muy bien MAM !!. Así se hace !!

[lumar]

ni le contesto guillermo, que insulte solo

[bullbear]

ale AAPL y garpan TVPP........Alguien sabe la relaciòn Manzanita / EL PEPE ?

Steve todo lo puede !! Debe ser una aplicación de itunes para ver el TVPP o algo asi

[martin]

si el forista TANINGA sigue posteando es porque este foro se dsmadro, se la pasa insultando en forma reiterada, espero que el moderador tome cartas en el asunto

guillermo justo vos lo decís que un momento te parecías mucho.......
Ahora admito que estas más tranquilo ....

[Arucho]

compre 300 lotes de 13.50 Abril a 0.38

[bullbear]

Cerré lo lanzado en MA, veremos que sale de la cocina de Botana

[ElGranDiego]

Que tufillo a devaluacion, todas las acciones nacionales para abajo, los bonos en dolares para arriba muy fuerte

[volatil]

cuanto falta hacés apolo es este momento.-