TVPP TVPA TVPY Cupones Vinculados al PBI

[martin]

JP Morgan:

Argentina: Previewing March activity: partial data suggest economy is bottoming

Sectoral data available early in the month are volatile and March was no exception. Auto output stumbled (-4.0%oya) while cement sales bounced (+5.2%oya)—the exact opposite patterns seen in February (see first and second chart below).

Meanwhile, March activity-linked tax collections looked a bit softer (3.0%oya in real terms, down from 5.0%oya in February). But March revenues appears to have genuinely rebounded (11.6%oya vs 8.9%oya in February) when the data is adjusted for its import component (because the drag from import-related revenue reflects supply problems—the binding nature of import controls—rather than softness of demand). See third chart.

Taken together this partial data provides a preview for a more comprehensive and reliable reading of the economy later in the month when a broader set of indicators, used in J.P. Morgan's Argentina activity model become available (see fourth chart).

All in all, March's available data is sending a similar message to the February data: the economy appears to be bottoming out towards the end of 1Q12. Indeed, JPMorgan's narrow activity indicator for Argentina (which anticipates the J.P. Morgan activity model estimate used to track activity trends in the absence of reliable official statistics) was up 3.4%oya in March. That metric is already adjusted for distortions produced by import controls (which are worth 0.2%-pts).

J.P. Morgan's activity model estimates for January (3.6%oya), February (3.8%oya, adjusted for import controls) alongside March's preliminary indications (also adjusted for import controls) describe an economy that slowed visibly from 4Q11 (6.1%oya) to 1Q12 (3.6%oya) while displaying a relatively steady monthly performance throughout the 1Q. This stabilization of monthly activity data offers points to a bottoming out of the economy at the end of 1Q12.

Note that these figures approximate genuine activity and that the over-reporting gap of INDEC (official statistics) averages almost 2%-pts (i.e. in January INDEC suggested 5.5%oya vs JPMorgan model estimate 3.6%oya).

Muy interesante. Hacen un análisis muy similar al que hicimos algunos acá. Además excelente como tienen en cuenta los 2 puntos que agrega el indec sobreestimando el crecimiento.
Coincido definitivamente con lo que dicen sobre lo que se ve que está sucediendo en el primer trimestre del 2012 y como parece que a fines del 2011 la economía tocó un piso y a partir de ese piso se estabilizaron los datos.
Yo que sigo con atención todos los datos que van a apareciendo observo exactamente lo mismo.

[faivel]

Bue... solo un detallecito menor, che..

[HerrX]

Herrx tenes las puntas del otc? te agradezco por los informes

warrant USD 12.350- 12.900
warrant ARS 2.370- 2.480

[Lotero21]

Herrx tenes las puntas del otc? te agradezco por los informes

[criacuervos]

El pp cotiza apenas 1 Boudou Calcografico mas, que el año pasado a esta misma fecha ... y pensar que habia una encuesta a 23 .. el plesbicito Paparrucho...

[HerrX]

JP Morgan:

Argentina: Previewing March activity: partial data suggest economy is bottoming

Sectoral data available early in the month are volatile and March was no exception. Auto output stumbled (-4.0%oya) while cement sales bounced (+5.2%oya)—the exact opposite patterns seen in February (see first and second chart below).

Meanwhile, March activity-linked tax collections looked a bit softer (3.0%oya in real terms, down from 5.0%oya in February). But March revenues appears to have genuinely rebounded (11.6%oya vs 8.9%oya in February) when the data is adjusted for its import component (because the drag from import-related revenue reflects supply problems—the binding nature of import controls—rather than softness of demand). See third chart.

Taken together this partial data provides a preview for a more comprehensive and reliable reading of the economy later in the month when a broader set of indicators, used in J.P. Morgan's Argentina activity model become available (see fourth chart).

All in all, March's available data is sending a similar message to the February data: the economy appears to be bottoming out towards the end of 1Q12. Indeed, JPMorgan's narrow activity indicator for Argentina (which anticipates the J.P. Morgan activity model estimate used to track activity trends in the absence of reliable official statistics) was up 3.4%oya in March. That metric is already adjusted for distortions produced by import controls (which are worth 0.2%-pts).

J.P. Morgan's activity model estimates for January (3.6%oya), February (3.8%oya, adjusted for import controls) alongside March's preliminary indications (also adjusted for import controls) describe an economy that slowed visibly from 4Q11 (6.1%oya) to 1Q12 (3.6%oya) while displaying a relatively steady monthly performance throughout the 1Q. This stabilization of monthly activity data offers points to a bottoming out of the economy at the end of 1Q12.

Note that these figures approximate genuine activity and that the over-reporting gap of INDEC (official statistics) averages almost 2%-pts (i.e. in January INDEC suggested 5.5%oya vs JPMorgan model estimate 3.6%oya).

[puma.ar]

Y sí, hay que hacer una cirugía para apartar los culebrones. En otro sitio creo que eso esta depurado. Abrazo!

Augusto, de acuerdo.
Silverado, interesante la nota de tu link
Abrazo a ambos.

[AUGUSTO]

Augusto...aquí? no hay mucho ruido en ésta biblioteca? No abundan algunos libros anarquistas???
Temo lo puedan confundir...

Y sí, hay que hacer una cirugía para apartar los culebrones. En otro sitio creo que eso esta depurado. Abrazo!

[puma.ar]

Aquí, no creo que encuentres otro mejor; ....lo único vas a tener que comperte con paciencia varias páginas para entender un poco del tema. Pero respecto de lo que puntualmente preguntas, vas a encontrar varias respuestas. Suerte.

Augusto...aquí? no hay mucho ruido en ésta biblioteca? No abundan algunos libros anarquistas???
Temo lo puedan confundir...

[Lotero21]

como abrioooo??

12.80 y 12.90 las puntas. 12.83 operado.

[ramifur]

como abrioooo??

[murddock]

Ya contra el min. del 29/2 de 12.78. Es make or break. Sino aparece la papa..

[AUGUSTO]

Buen dia, alguien sabe de algun lugar como para entender bien que es lo que influye a la cotizacion de los TVPP?? que esten abajo de 13 es muy preocupante?? no entiendo mucho del tema y toy interesado. Gracias.

Aquí, no creo que encuentres otro mejor; ....lo único vas a tener que comperte con paciencia varias páginas para entender un poco del tema. Pero respecto de lo que puntualmente preguntas, vas a encontrar varias respuestas. Suerte.