TVPP TVPA TVPY Cupones Vinculados al PBI

[Arucho]

La soja sigue imparable. Estos precios creo que desde los máximos del 2008 que no se lo veía.

No recuerdo donde vi la nota, pero esta en maximos de 43 meses

[martin]

La soja sigue imparable. Estos precios creo que desde los máximos del 2008 que no se lo veía.

[murddock]

Puntas del azulejo?

.10 tomador

[Arucho]

Que cupon de miercolesssssssssssssssssss

El cupon no es una mie***, en tal caso la mie***) es uno mismo que no sabe operar

[Arucho]

Puntas del azulejo?

[Hielasangre]

Si Si, gracias...

Este, el "Mago Matematico"

[Fisther]

gracias Josef

Si Si, gracias...

[erni903]

Tengo expectativa de que el cupon pagara en el 2013 por lo tanto toda mi cartera sera 100% al tvpp siempre y cuando pueda conseguir unos put de proteccion adecuados

[Arucho]

Arucho.. te noto cambiado.. te pusiste las t...@s?? ja, ja
Cuando bajó desde 13.5 lo hizo sin volúmen... y bajó.. asi que puede llegar a 14 mangos con 70 palos de nominales al día tranquilamente

Cambiado? mmmm puede, ser, digamos que estoy muy cauteloso.

[Fisther]

Buenas y santas !!!

Guarda con el empome, la onda E, del Kuperno !!!

Este año crecemos al 1.5-1.8% segun Josef (que debe ser algun tipo de mago para dibujar esos nros)...

El mago Josef, que tul?? te dibuja lo que quieras....

[Arucho]

trece

-picado fino o picado grueso????

veremos

Hasta que no aparezca volumen no se define

[salvatuti]

We expect local and external demand for the Boden ’15. The bond has sponsorship from local investors who use it as a way of dollarizing portfolios. Unlike the short end, the belly of the curve runs the risk of additional supply. The public pension fund appears to have been selling Bonar ’17s and the government recently issued 2018 and 2019 dollar bonds to the ANSES, which could start selling them to the market. The long end remains illiquid and has little support from either foreign or local investors. In our view, the continued external risks and the deterioration of prospects for the economy will keep investors reluctant to take duration risk and focused on short-dated bonds.

For leveraged investors, we recommend GDP warrants. We estimate that, barring a default, USD and EUR warrants will pay out approximately 50% of the upfront cost in December of this year (almost 70% for ARS warrants). Next year’s payment is uncertain, as economic growth could fall below the 3.26% threshold. However, we still assign a low probability to that happening. The latest monthly GDP proxy data supports our view that growth will surpass the 3.26% threshold for a warrant payment in 2013. Our economists believe that, based on February’s monthly GDP proxy, which came out at 5.2% yoy, the official data will likely show Q1 real GDP growth of at least 5% yoy. If this were the case, then for the whole year GDP growth rate to fall below the 3.26% threshold, GDP growth would have to average 2.6% yoy in the next three quarters. While actual growth may well fall below those levels, we think the government will be highly unlikely to admit to such deceleration. In our view, the political price for acknowledging a sharp economic downturn is incurred immediately, while the budgetary savings of avoiding about $4bn payment on the warrant will be realized only in December 2013. Still, we believe is important to monitor high frequency data that is likely to result in continuing volatility in Argentine assets, particularly GDP warrants (for example, weak consumer confidence and shopping center sales recently released confirm this view).

EUR warrants look the most attractive. As shown in Exhibit 2, EUR-denominated warrants presently offer a higher discount to theoretical value than other currency-denominated warrants. Additionally, the expected cumulative payment on EUR warrants in 2012 and 2013 is €12.59, or almost 116% of today’s price, which is higher than the USD warrants. We prefer to avoid peso warrants for now given the continued pressure on the blue chip swap exchange rate market and the very high cost of hedging additional ARS risk. We therefore recommend buying EUR warrants at €11, and target a price of €13, with a stop-loss of €9.

Fuente: credito suizo

abrazo
salva +4