BPAT Banco Patagonia S.A.

[aleelputero(deputs)]

Event

Banco Patagonia confirmed in a note sent to the local SEC today that Banco do Brasil (BBAS3 BZ; R$30.50; Not Rated) is in advanced negotiations to acquire a participation in the Argentine bank, which could include a controlling stake in the entity. According to the note, an agreement could be reached in the coming days. Simultaneously, Banco do Brasil sent a note to the Brazilian SEC.



Analysis

Banco do Brasil will need to launch a tender offer for 100% of the shares, if it seeks more than 51%. According to Banco Patagonia’s bylaws, if an investor wanted to acquire a stake representing between 35% and 50% of the shares, he would need to launch a tender offer for up to 50%. But if the investor aimed at acquiring more than 51% of the shares, he should launch a tender offer for 100%. Although Banco do Brasil would need to maintain top management to run the bank in the transition period given its small operation in Argentina , we believe that, sooner or later, Banco do Brasil would seek full control of the bank.

According to our estimates, Banco do Brasil should offer approx. AR$5.00 per share if they seek control. We use a Gordon growth model to value Banco Patagonia. According to our estimates, the P/BV target multiple for Patagonia should be 1.6x. Adding premium control of 25% we believe the acquisition price should be at around 2.0x P/BV, which would result in an offering price of approx. AR$5.00 per share.

The price could pullback if the transaction fails, but Banco Patagonia will continue to price a potential takeover. The stock has rallied 50% since rumors hit the market at the end of last year, pricing a potential full tender offer by Banco do Brasil, so the price could suffer if the transaction fails. Nevertheless, we believe Banco Patagonia will continue to price a potential takeover. The bank is the perfect fit for a newcomer or for a local player aiming at increasing its share. Banco Patagonia combines a clean balance sheet, an attractive market position, a healthy loan portfolio, a well structured distribution network, and an efficient operation.



Conclusion

We see highly probable Banco do Brasil will reach an agreement with Banco Patagonia ’s current controlling group to


seria mucho pedir la traduccion




acquire a controlling stake in the bank. Depending on the stake they seek, they will need to launch a tender offer for 50% or up to 100% of the shares. The price should be close to AR$5.00 per share, 13% above current price.

[cid_gambit]

cid:
Si se incluye al minoritario en la operación, recibiremos lo mismo que el grupo de control, en caso de vender nuestras acciones. Si vos decidis convervarlas, porque crees que luego seguirá subiendo, no recibirás nada en este intercambio.
Si no se incluye al minoritario probablemente baje el día que se sepa. Y ahí, o vendes muy rápido, o si baja mucho, conservarlas pensando en su revaluación bajo el mando del Banco do Brasil.
Un tercer escenario posible, es como han hecho varios en este foro...tomar las ganancias, y ver de afuera. Clin caja, y que se preocupe otro.

Gramar te agradesco mucho tu explicacion. la verdad me aclarate mucho el panorama. Yo por ahora voy a esperar hasta el jueves a ver que es lo que pasa =)

[arcangel100]

Se viene un achique, o sigue directo a los 5$
los que saben ocmo la ven?

gracias

[Gramar]

Leí lo que se posteó acá, y no parece ser muy convincente aunque da la pauta de que sí. Que debería ser extensible, peero te la pueden dibujar también, si quisieran creo. Fijate el post de "Herni" un par de páginas atrás.

[Gramar]

cid:
Si se incluye al minoritario en la operación, recibiremos lo mismo que el grupo de control, en caso de vender nuestras acciones. Si vos decidis convervarlas, porque crees que luego seguirá subiendo, no recibirás nada en este intercambio.
Si no se incluye al minoritario probablemente baje el día que se sepa. Y ahí, o vendes muy rápido, o si baja mucho, conservarlas pensando en su revaluación bajo el mando del Banco do Brasil.
Un tercer escenario posible, es como han hecho varios en este foro...tomar las ganancias, y ver de afuera. Clin caja, y que se preocupe otro.

[cid_gambit]

alguien me podria explicar bien que pasaria si nos incluyen a los minoritas o no?
Yo entiendo esto:
En el caso de que si : nos pagarian parte de lo que vale la accion que compra el banco du brazil y seguimos conservando nuestras acciones (un poco mas bajas calculo)
En caso de que no: hay que vender rapido para aprobecha todo lo que subio
Disculpen mi ignorancia!

[jorgecolor]

Que ccomplicado que esta esto, mañana debería seguir la suba y capaz que llegue a tocar los $5 mangos pero hasta ahora tambien ha subido lindo, por ahí me dan ganas de vender.....o esperar un par de días más, para ver que pasa, por ahí me equivoco pero....me parece que las voy a aguntar unos días más, hasta el jueves hay tiempo....

[cid_gambit]

igual hasta ahora... bastante la suba =)

[Gramar]

Se quedan cortina con las estimaciones...

[All Ramon]

Event

Banco Patagonia confirmed in a note sent to the local SEC today that Banco do Brasil (BBAS3 BZ; R$30.50; Not Rated) is in advanced negotiations to acquire a participation in the Argentine bank, which could include a controlling stake in the entity. According to the note, an agreement could be reached in the coming days. Simultaneously, Banco do Brasil sent a note to the Brazilian SEC.



Analysis

Banco do Brasil will need to launch a tender offer for 100% of the shares, if it seeks more than 51%. According to Banco Patagonia’s bylaws, if an investor wanted to acquire a stake representing between 35% and 50% of the shares, he would need to launch a tender offer for up to 50%. But if the investor aimed at acquiring more than 51% of the shares, he should launch a tender offer for 100%. Although Banco do Brasil would need to maintain top management to run the bank in the transition period given its small operation in Argentina , we believe that, sooner or later, Banco do Brasil would seek full control of the bank.

According to our estimates, Banco do Brasil should offer approx. AR$5.00 per share if they seek control. We use a Gordon growth model to value Banco Patagonia. According to our estimates, the P/BV target multiple for Patagonia should be 1.6x. Adding premium control of 25% we believe the acquisition price should be at around 2.0x P/BV, which would result in an offering price of approx. AR$5.00 per share.

The price could pullback if the transaction fails, but Banco Patagonia will continue to price a potential takeover. The stock has rallied 50% since rumors hit the market at the end of last year, pricing a potential full tender offer by Banco do Brasil, so the price could suffer if the transaction fails. Nevertheless, we believe Banco Patagonia will continue to price a potential takeover. The bank is the perfect fit for a newcomer or for a local player aiming at increasing its share. Banco Patagonia combines a clean balance sheet, an attractive market position, a healthy loan portfolio, a well structured distribution network, and an efficient operation.



Conclusion

We see highly probable Banco do Brasil will reach an agreement with Banco Patagonia ’s current controlling group to acquire a controlling stake in the bank. Depending on the stake they seek, they will need to launch a tender offer for 50% or up to 100% of the shares. The price should be close to AR$5.00 per share, 13% above current price.

[cid_gambit]

hola! soy nuevo en el foro !! saludos a todos! y compre banco patagonia al enterarme por feed de lo del banco de brazil! los compre a 4,43 y ahora estoy viendo como esta subiendo... no soy muy bueno en esto y la verdad que leer todo lo que uds dicen me hace aprender banstante (sobre todo los que pegaron unos links los cuales lei atentamente sobre como operar en la bolsa y que son las opciones) buena la verdad es que pienso lo mismo que el ultimo... estan comprando mucha guita en accciones y para mi tambien algo saben. abria que ver cuando toda esa gente comienza a vender o si no lo hace.

[Gramar]

Y yo creo. Porque como bien observó julio, no se pone de lleno en la compra y que se caiga el mundo, sino que va llevando..trabajo de artesano.