CRES Cresud

[boquita]

maravillosoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo




gracias bienvista!!

[NuevoPobre]

Excelente esto Herr! Para seguir sumando si tan solo tuviera liquido

Enviado desde mi LG-H815 mediante Tapatalk

[HerrX]

Acaba de salir hoy un excelente analisis (e inicio de cobertura) de P.uente Hnos sobre IRSA-IRCP. Le dan un upside mayor a 100%, usan mucho de nuestra tesis (que se vuelve a validar) y si bien analizan IRSA, piensen que en el caso de Cresud se suma la subvaluacion de campos y negocios adicionales (ej FYO) ademas:


Initiating coverage of IRSA and IRSA CP

A valuation no-brainer: IRS trades at significant discount to NAV

We are initiating coverage of IRSA (NYSE: IRS, BCBA: IRS) with an OUTPERFORM rating and a fundamental target price of USD35.6 per ADR. We are also initiating coverage of IRSA Commercial Properties (NASDAQ: IRCP, BCBA: IRCP) with an OUTPERFORM rating and a 12-month target price of USD50.8 per ADR.

Unlike IRCP which is a pure real estate play in Argentina, one can think of IRSA as a diversified holding with interests not only in real estate, but also in some other opportunistic investments. We believe the market is not pricing in correctly IRSA’s land bank in general and Santa Maria del Plata in particular. We are also of the idea that fears over IRSA’s investment in IDBD are exaggerated. Even if one considers IDBD as a distress bet, we believe that IRSA has a solid chance of restructuring the conglomerate and unlocking value without injecting additional capital.

IRCP, on the other hand, is undoubtedly the most important real estate play in Argentina, with a unique and in some locations impossible to replicate portfolio of shopping malls and office buildings. Even though we apply a 15% discount to our target price mainly on liquidity and less on intercompany financing or corporate governance concerns, we believe that IRCP is poised to continue creating value in a context in which new demand for office space and a rebound in retail activity will take place if macro-economic imbalances are corrected.

IRSA’s shares at potential fire sale prices, even applying a 25% holding discount

We have prepared three NAV scenarios for IRSA: a downside, a base and an upside case. As detailed later, our downside case implies a price per ADR of USD20.3. We refer to this value as our “fundamental bottom”, which currently implies at least a 15% upside with a 25% holding discount. It is interesting to note that IRSA’s proportional stake in IRCP (94.74%) is worth more than IRSA’s current market cap. This means that investors who buy IRSA at current prices are getting IRCP’s upside and the rest of the assets for free. Needless to say, IRCP is the backbone of IRSA’s value.

In our view, it really does not make sense for IRSA’s shares to trade below that price. We are practically not making any analysis in this scenario; we are just taking market values for IRCP, Banco Hipotecario and Condor, USD book values for land bank (except for Santa Maria, which we valued at a more than conservative USD250/sqm), USD acquisition prices for hotels and our estimated fair value for Lipstick. Our target price of USD35.6 per ADR is derived from our base scenario, implying a 101% upside to fair value. Although an upside of this magnitude may seem too good to be true, we believe our assumptions are reasonable.

IRCP looks poised to buck the trend

At a LTM EV/EBITDA and FY17E EV/EBITDA multiples of 11.3x and 9.1x respectively, IRSA Commercial Properties’ current valuation metrics show a significant discount to those of its peers. More specifically, when looking at FY17E values, the company trades at a 33% discount vs. the median valuation of its relevant comps. Our 12-month target price of USD50.8 per ADR implies a 30.4% upside to fair value.

IRSA secures a lock, stock and barrel deal with IDBD

IDBD ended up being a wholly owned entity of the Elsztain group through several restructuring steps which culminated with the final proposal approved in March 2016, by which the remaining free float was acquired by Dolphin and the company was delisted from the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. IRSA’s investment in IDBD has been controversial, at least from the investment community point of view. Some investors feared and continue to fear that IRSA will keep funneling funds to IDBD. Although it is true that IRSA has invested so far USD515mn in the Israeli holding (around 50% of IRSA’s market capitalization), we think that IRSA will try and focus on restructuring IDBD without injecting additional funds, and we are inclined to believe that management will do whatever is in their power to transform their vision into real value for IRSA’s shareholders.

Investment risks

Given the importance of IRCP’s shopping malls’ results for both IRCP valuation and IRSA’s NAV analysis (IRCP represents 63% of GAV in our downside case and 62% of GAV in our base scenario) we believe the most relevant risk is uncertainty regarding the success of the corrective macroeconomic policies that the current administration is taking. The shopping malls segment is the most important one when looking at IRSA Commercial Properties, as it accounts for around 85% of pure rental revenue for that company. This segment depends on private consumption and retail activity, which has been hit since the beginning of the year. Although the outlook for economic activity as a whole is favorable looking forward, if retail activity and private consumption takes longer to recover, our main assumptions could be challenged. On another note, although we feel confident that IRSA’s shares should trade at least at our fundamental bottom of USD20.3 per ADR, we do acknowledge that street estimates for IRSA’s land bank (which in our view is being incorrectly valued by the market) and investors’ fears regarding IDBD may prevent IRSA’s shares to reach our target price in the short term.

Equity & Bonds Valuation

For IRCP, we decided to derive our target price through a blended valuation. We performed three valuation methods: a DCF analysis, a target EV/EBITDA multiple and a NAV analysis based on cap rates. For IRSA, we performed three NAV analyses and we chose our base case to derive our target price. We think that a 25% holding discount should satisfy even the more skeptic investors. Regarding IRS or IRCP bonds, even though we like IRSA’20, liquidity is scarce and our preferred pick is IRCPAR’23. We believe IRCP’23 is offering an interesting entry point with a yield spread to the sovereign ARGENT’21 of 215bp (170bp over the interpolated curve) and a higher liquidity than IRSA’20. The spread vs. ARGENT’21 widened from an average 150bp in April-May. We maintain our OVERWEIGHT rating on IRCP’23.



A comprar.

[EmBel]

Muy poco volumen a la baja, no le queda mucho tiempo en esta zona, tendria que empezar a salir

[Trapiche]

Si es B como hablan del ADR, (que técnicamente tiene toda la pinta pero me niego a leerlo estrictamente por la situación y el interes que hay por la empresa que puede hacer que modifique su comportamiento) es cuestión de días para que transite la C y despues se dispare, va a ser oportunidad de compra, va a impulsar mas la acción al alza, no se duerman amigos! y si no es B va a salir caro el peaje para los bajistas de CP que quieren comprarla bien abajo pero lo vale de todas formas
Saludos y buena semana!

[Tornado882]

Es en semanal, ya hizo el pullback (las dos últimas velas en realidad son una sola ya que son las de esta semana, yahoo tomó la última vela como solo la rueda del viernes).

Otra vez se va a meter en el canal u otro pullback creen que va a hacer ? yo no

Pipa disculpame pero está mal trazado ese canal, mira la diferencia y la cantidad de apoyos.
.

[MiguelS]

Si. Ja. Raro que GS haga movimientos diminutos. Igualmente en la nota figura un link con la posición al 31-03 de distintos fondos en Cresud. Tal vez sirva para tener como previa e ir viendo si hay movimientos al pasar los meses.

[Gramar]

Hola gente:
No sé si ya lo postearon, pero Goldman Sachs incrementó posición en Cresud


https://twitter.com/inversorzen/status/ ... 2228440064

Compró 88 adrs en el trimestre, se jugaron.

[PAPU07]

Coincido que se va a 30, previa escala por los 23.30.

$ 23,30 seguro en el cortisimo ( y mas abajo tambien, tipo 21 / 22 mangos)

30 mangos ? ? ESPERALOS EN EL 2017

[MiguelS]

Hola gente:
No sé si ya lo postearon, pero Goldman Sachs incrementó posición en Cresud


https://twitter.com/inversorzen/status/ ... 2228440064

[aleelputero(deputs)]

Los de Israel si... de los de acá, hay de todo.

gracias Mariano. Siiii. Son muchas. Tengo anotado pero no puedo encontrar donde

[murddock]

Como estas
Pampa me dio buenos frutos le entre debajo de 13 y sali arriba de 16 pesos. Volveré cuando el adr llegue aprox a los 25 dol.
Venite para acá que se va arriba de los 30 pesos.

Abrazo

Coincido que se va a 30, previa escala por los 23.30.

[PAPU07]

En U$ va claramente a buscar los 16 ( verdes) En el grafico se lo ve claramente

[elpipa]

Es en semanal, ya hizo el pullback (las dos últimas velas en realidad son una sola ya que son las de esta semana, yahoo tomó la última vela como solo la rueda del viernes).

Otra vez se va a meter en el canal u otro pullback creen que va a hacer ? yo no

[aleelputero(deputs)]

Una consulta a la muchachada. Los balances de las empresas en la cual esta tiene participación presentan sus trimestre ahora no? En agosto digo.