paisano escribió: ↑
Y a sé que no entrega nada, lo que digo es que es sobre ese precio del petroleo, es sobre el precio que esta el petróleo que si se entrega.
No, no es asi y es mucho mas complejo el tema y tiene que ver con lo que se anuncio ayer. Esta nota lo explica perfectamente y es la razon por la cual ya no conviene invertir este producto, ya que como estamos viendo hoy ya no va poder trakear correctamente la variacion de los contratos cortos que es basicamente de lo que este fondo esta empapelado. Y otra de las razones por las cuales va seguir perdiendo valor es el monstruoso contango que hay en el presente en la curva. La diferencia hoy por hoy entre el contrato corto y el de Julio es de 7 USD. Esto significa que si empezaran a rollear los contratos de Junio a los de Julio (el otro 80% que aun no rollearon teoricamente) van a tener que pagar un peaje monstruoso 50% de diferencial una locura. Por eso digo, si uno entiende como funciona realmente este fondo no deberia poner un mango aca, a menos como inversion a unos meses, ya que de corto plazo es una quimera esto. Hay una estimacion segun una nota que lei ayer que indica que este fondo es el tenedor del 25% de todos los contratos de Junio, una wasada.
https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/trad ... f-collapse
For starters, USO, which invests in forward oil futures contracts, is down 78% year-to-date. While the fund's price has been cratering, investors and speculators have moved in adding $3 billion to the fund's total asset base in about a month and a half. USO was recently at just $1 billion, so the fund has quadrupled in size. This has put a lot of strain on the fund to operate effectively.
USO only has a fixed number of shares available to buyers.
That wasn't a problem before, but now that money has poured in, all of those shares got snapped up. The fund hit its max earlier today and was forced to announce that it is halting all new share creations until the SEC is able to step in and approve a new issuance.
The ETF industry's share creation/destruction mechanism helps ensure that the fund almost always trades at or very near its underlying NAV.
Now that this mechanism effectively no longer exists, USO essentially has begun trading like a closed-end fund, a portfolio that only has a fixed number of shares and trades based on supply and demand. Like CEFs, USO has begun disconnecting from its underlying NAV and now trades at a massive 20%+ premium.
La nota de seking alpha es de hace un par de semanas, pero explica perfectamente los conceptos. Antes de poner un mango aca recomiendo leer esto:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/433615 ... de-oil-etf
Though we would not jump to the conclusion, especially when considering buying the crude oil ETF (USO) which suffers from price erosion resulting from negative roll yield during times of contango. Using the spread between CL3 and CL1 as a measure of the contango, below regression analysis shows that USO tends to underperform the front-month futures by nearly 6% over a 4-week period for every +10% increment in the CL3 - CL1 differential:
As such, with the CL3-CL1 spread as elevated as 30% 2 weeks ago and remains above 10% today,
the reward-to-risk heavily weighs against the crude oil ETF as it is expected to underperform between 6-18% relative to CL1 over the coming weeks.
Cuando esta nota fue escrita el diferencial era mucho menor. Ahora estamos hablando de +50%, esto va hacer percha al fondo y cuando mayor sea el spread peor.
