CRES Cresud

[Polaco]

Gaston89 sos vos??!!
Este es groso.

[damianp]

la venta fuerte en estos dias esta en 17.50usd

[Gaston89]

MS - IRSA

We increased our PT from US$20 to
US$25 (+40% return) based on a reduction
of discount to NAV (~50% to ~40%), driven
by : 1) increasing demand for residential and
commercial real estate; 2) a prospective
increase in capital availability for real estate
through a tax amnesty program; 3)
government initiatives to spur investment


We do not know if IRSA will get building
permits for Solares in BA; however, it could
be transformational and likely worth far
more than the market thinks. Permitting
should add US$ 13/share to IRS landbank.

IRSA owns 68% of IDBD, which is
currently going through bankruptcy
protection proceedings and has a debt load
of +US$6bn. IRSA has so far invested north
of US$545mm into IDBD. We ascribe zero
value to IDBD, given the opaqueness and
uncertainty of the value creation
opportunity in this investment.


Price Target $25
All cases below use Net Asset Value analysis. Major assumptions include 1) FX of 16.9 ARS
per USD, 2) a 7.3% Portfolio Cap Rate, 3) Lipstick (NYC Office Building) Ground Lease
Capitalized at 4%.
Bull $45
30% Discount to Bull Case Net Asset Value
We are valuing the mall assets at 7.5% and the office assets at 8.5%. Even in the bull case
we assume an important discount to NAV of ~30% due to the complexity and
transparency issues, but we assume a higher asset valuation driven by Solares de Santa
Maria's permits being approved, and also we assume that IRSA recovers US$545 of equity
value (similar to the capital invested) from IDBD. We arrive at an NAV almost US$ 62 and
apply a ~30% discount to arrive at US$45.

[Javierdib]

Me preguntan si queremos mas o guardan algo para el lunes.

me gustan las subas parejas, pero creo que si esperan al lunes pagan peaje

[ElCoco]

Raro que no salto el personaje de siempre para cargar a HerrX, ahora que esta 27.

[Polaco]

Dicen mis amigos los Argenyonies que no sean tan maracas y que ya van ver lo que hacen en un rato.

Me preguntan si queremos mas o guardan algo para el lunes.

[Fulano de Tal]

Rompioooooo

[Javierdib]

se corre la venta en la local, vamos-!!

[boquita]

guachiguauuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu

[dabalanso]

Wowwwwww

[Javierdib]

coopere a la causa, y lleve a 27, nos vamos

[Polaco]

Entrando los Argenyonies del rioba

[el tabano]

Da el 94 que es el que pago aquella vez bastantese asique si nos guiamos X su timing seguramente pegara un zapatazo
aunque de largo esta el paísa los garchin

[dabalanso]

[dabalanso]

nadie vende arriba de 27... me gusta