Foro de Rava Bursátil

mr18 escribió:Hola, parece querer despegar el ADR

martin escribió: Eso es incorrecto. La tasa fue de 8,75%.

If you want cheap exposure to the shale gas revolution, Argentina‘s YPF (YPF) is it, according to Morgan Stanley. YPF trades at 4 times 2014 EBITDA, a “~50% discount to global oil companies exposed to shale plays, mostly in the US,” wrote analyst Bruno Montanari in a recent research note.

YPF’s management is confident that Vaca Muerta is a world class asset, combining the beast features of US shale plays. Here is Montanari:

Looking at the three key characteristics that define a prolific shale play, Vaca Muerta combines i) total organic carbon (TOC) of 3–10%, similar to the Marcellus’ 2–12%; ii) an unparalleled thickness of 30–450m, with the Wolfcamp being the closest at 200–300m; ii) reservoir pressure of 4,500–9,500 psi, comparable to the Eagle Ford and Haynesville.

YPF may be able to cut its well cost and increase its project return:

YPF was candid in admitting they are taking the initial steps in the shale development and success will depend on an improvement in productivity and well economics. Current well cost is $7.5M, but it could likely come down to $6.5M in 12-24 months, which would increase IRRs by ~500bps. This shall be achieved with a higher scale and availability of higher quality drilling rigs.

The company has already come a long way, having reduced well costs by over 30% from the initial $11M in 2011 to $7.6M currently. The bulk of the reduction has come on the well completion costs, despite the increase in the number of frac stages per well, which has gone from 3.1 to 5 at present.

Argentina itself is a risk, but Morgan Stanley seems to think YPF is operated professionally and the government is leaving it alone:

The government, including opposition senators, is pleased with the way in which YPF has been professionally managed.

Morgan Stanley has a price target of $49. YPF opened at $29.7 this morning.

martin escribió:En serio están pensando que lo del incendio puede pegar en el precio ??...
Es joda ??...
Si la acción llega a bajar será por otras razones pero precisamente no por esa.....

Coloso2 escribió:YPFD el martes EXPLOTA
DIOS MIO............ no pegamos una !!!!!!!!!!! esperemos NO repercuta este accidente en la Bolsa. Pèrdidas MILLONARIAS.