YPFD YPF S.A.

[gusso2007]

Nota completa,

Bill Newman: Get Over Your Fear And Go For Black Gold In Argentina

Production of both oil and natural gas in Argentina has been declining for years. At the same time, demand has been increasing.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Argentina has the fourth-largest technically recoverable shale oil resource and the fourth-largest technically recoverable shale gas resource in the world.
The EIA estimates that the Neuquén Basin alone holds a recoverable resource of 16 billion barrels and 308 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, so that's a massive prize.
It's been a long time since the Repsol fiasco in Argentina, and the oil-rich nation has been making steady efforts to encourage foreign investment in its energy sector. Bill Newman, vice president of international oil and gas with Mackie Research Capital, insists investors should focus less on political risk and more on the world-class Vaca Muerta shale play. In this interview with The Energy Report, Newman names oil and gas majors and junior explorers making progress, and recommends a few names that are taking advantage of Argentina's production incentives.

The Energy Report: Let's talk about the macro-economic picture for Argentina in terms of energy. What is the story there with the country's growing deficit, the devaluation of the peso and the reliance on energy imports?

Bill Newman: Production of both oil and natural gas in Argentina has been declining for years. At the same time, demand has been increasing. This is accelerating Argentina's energy deficit. The Argentina government understands that in order to slow production declines and eventually return to energy self-sufficiency, a substantial increase in investment will be required, and a large portion of that capital will have to come from foreign investment. The bottom line is that the government knows it needs to attract capital, and that could translate into modest improvements to the energy sector in order to promote that investment.

In January 2014, we saw a rapid devaluation of the peso. The peso has subsequently stabilized, but there is still some risk of further devaluation. Oil and gas is priced in U.S. dollars, which somewhat mitigates the impact of the falling peso. Producers could have lower operational costs in the short term, as most expenses are paid in pesos. Inflation remains a problem in Argentina, and the government is actively taking measures to prevent social unrest by negotiating with unions for higher wages to compensate for the weaker peso. But the government understands that increased foreign investment is one tool that could help to resolve the issue.

TER: Is Argentina increasingly attractive to foreign investors?

BN: It's no surprise that the expropriation of Repsol's 51% holding in Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales (YPF) in April 2012 jolted investor confidence. But ever since then, the government has been trying to repair the damage by introducing new incentives to promote investment by energy companies. Argentina has also been working toward improving its reputation on the international stage through negotiations with the debt holdouts, and successfully negotiated a compensation settlement with Repsol (OTCQX:REPYY) for the expropriated shares. This really is a complete turnaround from the direction the government was taking in early 2012. We think these efforts have reduced the perceived investment risk of Argentina, and that is starting to be reflected by increased investment. If Argentina holds the course, investors should start to focus less on political risk and focus more on the world-class Vaca Muerta shale play.

TER: What is the significance of the YPF $5 billion [$5B] settlement with Repsol?

BN: A large portion of the land that is prospective in the Neuquén Basin of the Vaca Muerta is held by YPF, so major oil companies looking for a meaningful position in the play might have to complete a deal with YPF. Before the settlement, most companies that were hoping to joint-venture with YPF put their plans on hold. The $5B settlement is a signal to the market that the government is serious about repairing its reputation on the world stage, and the move should open the door for new joint ventures in 2014. With the improving outlook, many companies have announced expanded plans for Argentina.

TER: What is the story behind the $1.6B joint venture Chevron Corp. (CVX) recently announced with YPF?

BN: The $1.6B investment is the second stage of the joint venture between Chevron and YPF to develop the Vaca Muerta shale play on the Loma Campana block. The first phase, which was a $1.24B investment, was completed early this year, and production from the Vaca Muerta shale is now about 20,000 barrels per day [20,000 bbl/d]. The second investment includes 170 wells, and longer-term plans could include up to 1,500 wells and an increase in production up to 50,000 bbl/d and 100 million cubic feet per day [100 MMcf/d] of natural gas. We see the second Chevron/YPF investment as another vote of confidence for the Vaca Muerta shale play in Argentina.

TER: Who is drilling in the Vaca Muerta play, and with what kind of success?

BN: According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Argentina has the fourth-largest technically recoverable shale oil resource and the fourth-largest technically recoverable shale gas resource in the world, most of which is located in the Neuquén Basin. The EIA estimates that the Neuquén Basin alone holds a recoverable resource of 16 billion barrels and 308 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, so that's a massive prize. The supermajors currently appraising the shale include Chevron, Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Total S.A. (TOT), and BP Plc (BP) also has holds a significant interest. The three Canadian-based junior oil and gas exploration companies that we cover with operations in Argentina are Americas Petrogas Inc. (OTCPK:APEOF), Madalena Energy Inc. (OTCPK:MDLNF), and Crown Point Energy Inc. (OTCPK:CWVLF).

Americas Petrogas holds a very large land base in the Neuquén Basin, which the company acquired many years before the shale play took off. There has been a lot of activity by the supermajors on blocks directly offsetting its Los Toldos blocks. Chevron also plans to drill four wells targeting the Vaca Muerta shale on the El Trapial block. A lot of money is being spent on lands very near to America Petrogas' lands, which could help derisk the play. In September of last year, Americas Petrogas announced a formal strategic review process to attract new joint venture partners or buyers, and we think the $5B settlement to Repsol and the increase exploration activity can only help with the process.

TER: Are there any other energy firms that you have your eye on in Argentina?

BN: I've been watching a company call Apco Oil & Gas International Inc. (APAGF), which is 69% owned by WPX Energy Inc. (WPX). Apco really has a large land position in the oil window of the Vaca Muerta shale play.

TER: Bill, thank you for joining us today with this overview.

BN: My pleasure.

[elushi]

Sii paga... Unos 450 millones de pesos. No se cuando pero pronto. Son chirolas igual teniendo en cuenta la capitalizacion bursatil superi a los 100 mil millones de pesos.

despues de adelanto de bienes personales y/o imp a las ganancias te quedas con centavitos
personalmente me parece coherente con la situacion actual de la empresa que no reparta muchos dividendos. esta enduedandose a tasas altas afuera y no va a estar despilfarrando en dividendos...
sin embargo dar aunque sea un poco esta bueno porque es mas un mensaje de confianza "no nos olvidamos de los accionistas"

[gusso2007]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2206413 ... -argentina

[iglejav]

Alguien sabe si este año puede o no pagar dividendos ?

Sii paga... Unos 450 millones de pesos. No se cuando pero pronto. Son chirolas igual teniendo en cuenta la capitalizacion bursatil superi a los 100 mil millones de pesos.

[locura_22]

Alguien sabe si este año puede o no pagar dividendos ?

[el_intrepido]

Tiene recursos, potencial,apoyo estatal (caballito de batalla), un tipo al frente que es serio... que mas quieren?

[boquita]

67 dolares en manos gallegas--que no invirtieron un mango y solos servia para repartija
a los repsoleros-
67 dolares y sin vaca muerta
67 dolares y sin Galuccio

y siguen la nuevas buenas...
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1689357-reto ... -argentino

[mrleinad]

si en una semana aumentara 30% no la vendo..esta es como TS Y STD para tenerlas..
suben ,bajan pero cuando en años necesitas la plata allí esta y bien actualizada..

no se en el caso de ypf si se dan cuenta en todos los frentes que se avanza..costaba 67 dolares en manos de Repsol y sin vaca muerta y hoy gallucio negocia con total,, Shell a un nivel que rapsol nunca alcanzó..
la plata busca flujos futuros.,

Yo no me volví fundamentalista del papel, pero me gusta que la empresa crezca por el bien de todos. No mezclo el crecimiento de la empresa con su evolución en la bolsa, porque esto último tiene más que ver con la psicología de masas que con el crecimiento puro y duro de la compañía.
Dicho eso, yo creo que los 290 ahora son piso de diamante (y si me apurás los 300). Desde acá solo tiene un solo camino:

[danianto62]

Se acuerdan cuando disparaba con el blue?, bueno, ahora hay que bancarla......

[alfil]

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1689357-reto ... -argentino

si en una semana aumentara 30% no la vendo..esta es como TS Y STD para tenerlas..
suben ,bajan pero cuando en años necesitas la plata allí esta y bien actualizada..

no se en el caso de ypf si se dan cuenta en todos los frentes que se avanza..costaba 67 dolares en manos de Repsol y sin vaca muerta y hoy gallucio negocia con total,, Shell a un nivel que rapsol nunca alcanzó..
la plata busca flujos futuros.,

[mrleinad]

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1689357-reto ... -argentino

[PABLON_GM]

Cerramos apoyados sobre el techo del triángulo. Hasta el lunes. Buen fin de semana!

Excelente... Respeto a un AT bien analizado


Enviado desde mi iPhone con Tapatalk

[gentleman]

Cerramos apoyados sobre el techo del triángulo. Hasta el lunes. Buen fin de semana!

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ypf&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

[shanispur]

Notapor el_intrepido el Jue May 08, 2014 6:11 pm
Mañana agarrensennn los cinturones otra vez...


Petrolera argentina YPF dice gana 2.787 mln pesos en 1er trim 2014

BUENOS AIRES, 8 may (Reuters) - La petrolera estatal argentina YPF reportó el jueves una ganancia recurrente de 2.787 millones de pesos (348,3 millones de dólares) en el primer trimestre del año, nivel que se ubicó por encima de lo estimado por analistas.

http://article.wn.com/view/2014/05/08/P ... _1er_trim/

shanispur el Jue May 08, 2014 9:40 pm

Yo pienso que el balance ya estaba descontado. Ojala suba, estoy comprado en calls. Ahora GGAL trajo un balance de put madre y derrapo con -4%, al igual q muchas del resto del merval. Espero que YPF se la siga bancando. Tambien estoy lanzado cubierto por el total de papeles que tengo (obio en una base distinta a la q tengo comprada). Lo unico que me deja digamos tranquilo es el espectacular volumen que metio ayer, y los papeles los sigo teniendo con horizonte a largo plazo, minimo 1 año mas. Saludos y buenas inversiones.

Bueno se cumplió lo mismo que pasó en GGAL. De todas formas la vela que dejó ayer con el impresionante volumen que metió... yo creo que esta corrección y si continúa en la semana es oportunidad de compra, ya que la veo UP

[gonzalopatagonia]

Buen finde!