Fabricio escribió:Pero si miras la película del frac de USA es una de terror. Las operadoras están con márgenes muy exiguos, si suben la producción les baja el precio y el wti no llega nunca a precios sustentables para ellos (mínimo arriba de 70 dólares). Tampoco pierdas de vista las compañías de servicios, básicamente mundialmente manejadas por 3. Halliburton fue la peor del S&P 500 el año pasado, GE se quiere desprender como sea de Baker Hugues y SLB prevee revenues a la baja (y cuello de botella en la producción de piel porque no tienen que hacer con el gas las operadoras). Esto te demuestra que ya están en piso para optimizar costos, más barato para construir los pozos no se puede pagar en USA.
Gazprom más gas le pedís lo puede producir y transportar muy barato. Tiene a Alemania en el top five de mayores productores de carbón a nivel mundial, puaj de publicidad, sí o si necesita el NS2. China, socio con mayor potencial, sus 2 petroleras más grandes incrementaron un 10 % su producción de gas Y/Y. Encima me la juego que el power of Siberia está listo para comerciar por fuera del dólar, más criptomonedas más emisión intensiva de billetes verdes abajo el dólar y por ende arriba el oil en esta moneda. Fundamentos que me dicen que Gazprom a estos precios siguen de regalo. Claro que la fuerza bruta puede matar fundamentos, nunca se sabe con los del norte.
Estaba viendo este informe de ayer de Kayrros...
Kayrros, the leading data-driven analysis company serving the energy markets, disclosed today that hydraulic fracturing activity (fracking), the process for producing light tight oil, was underreported by more than 20% in the Permian, the most prolific US basin, in 2018.
Using optical and synthetic aperture radar imagery tracking together with proprietary algorithms to identify rigs and frac crews, Kayrros found that in 2018 alone, more than 1,100 wells were completed in the Permian basin but not reported through state commissions or FracFocus, a public repository for information on the chemicals used during fracking. The total figure of 6,394 completed wells counted by Kayrros for 2018 represents a 21% increase on the FracFocus estimate of 5,272 wells as of June 20, 2019.
US light tight oil (commonly referred to as “shale oil”) has been the world’s fastest growing source of oil supply in the last 10 years, turning the United States into the largest liquids producer and a major exporter of crude oil and refined products. Experts rely their analysis of the sector on data submitted by operators to state commissions and FracFocus.
Kayrros measurements reveal that public data fail to capture the full scale of fracking. The macroeconomic implications of this underreporting are far-reaching. For one thing, the backlog of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells is considerably smaller than thought. In any given month, Kayrros evaluates the Permian DUC inventory at just around 1,000 wells. Most of this rolling inventory results from regular drilling and completions operations. Over time, the number of wells drilled generally matches that of wells completed, leaving DUC inventories relatively unchanged.
The prevalent view that shale operators sit on a large backlog of DUCs that could be quickly brought to production in the event of an oil crisis even without further drilling is thus deeply misleading. There is just no such inventory.
The findings also transform the perception of light tight oil economics. In light of these measurements, the average well is both less productive and higher-cost than reflected in public data.
Commenting on the discovery, Andrew Gould, former Chairman of BG and Chairman CEO of Schlumberger and Kayrros advisory board chairman, said: “Misperceptions about shale oil in general and the Permian in particular have consequences, hence the importance of these measurements that show Permian production per well has been substantially overestimated. By the same token, average production costs per well are understated. With far more wells contributing to Permian and US oil production than accounted for, current shale oil production is substantially more water- and sand-intensive than is commonly believed.”
Kayrros Chief Analyst and Co-Founder Antoine Halff added: “For all its revolutionary impact on the oil industry, shale remains poorly understood. Publicly available data based on old-fashioned company reporting have their limits. Hard measurements unlocked by new data technologies show that contrary to public belief, there is no great buildup of DUCs just waiting to be brought online. The whole idea that the market can rely on this sort of de facto spare production capacity is an illusion. The industry is actually running on a much tighter leash than that.”
The findings have significant implications for the assumed efficiency of the Permian Basin. The analysis revealed that while oil production is accurately measured in monthly US statistics, it took many more wells to account for that production in 2018 than were reported. Assuming a cost of $5 million per horizontal completion, 2018 operator capex is also underestimated by as much as USD 4.1 billion. Further, the sand and water intensity of Permian tight oil production in 2018 was 23% greater than previously recorded with sand demand being underestimated by 9.2 billion pounds and water by 12.5 billion gallons.
