Foro de Rava Bursátil

yo pregunto esos super bancos que pagan y pagan, no les gusta llevar barato? que bueno, a mi me encantan las ofertas.

tordo75 escribió:Muy bueno la verdad puma... simple pero motivador a la vez..

sobre todo cuando dice que tanto al exito como al fracaso debemos tratarlos como lo que verdaderamente son : dos impostores

jcrivas49 escribió: Si puedes llevar la cabeza sobre los hombros
bien puesta,... cuando otros la pierden y de ello
te culpan;
Si puedes confiar en tí cuando todos de tí dudan, ...
pero tomas en cuenta sus dudas;

Celebro que compartan mi placer por la historia del letrero, en cuanto a Kipling...mi viejo me colgó en mi habitación su "IF" cuando yo tenía 8 años. Es una brújula en el medio de la niebla...

Les paso un informe recién salidito del horno acerca de los cupones en USD.

Argentina: USD Warrants Enter Vulnerable Territory beyond USD12


Historical data indicates that at current levels USD warrants are no longer massively cheap as has been the case for most of this year.

Recent buyback stories shouldn't have a long-lasting effect on markets, as we assign a low probability to such a transaction in coming months.

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In recent days, USD warrants have reached new record highs, trading near US$12.00 and accumulating an impressive 70% gain return since late May. During August's spike in global risk aversion, USD warrants lost almost 10% in price terms, but their subsequent recovery has proven to be particularly steep, exhibiting a US$2.5 rally in just five weeks.

Adding fuel to market sentiment, last week we have had market reports about the possibility of the government repurchasing GDP warrants in significant scale, and also the release of official 2Q10 GDP data confirming that Argentina's economy is likely to grow near 8% this year. In this context, we decided to check our warrants' valuation model and review our fair-value estimates.

In summary, we find USD warrants fairly well valued at current levels, at least against dollar sovereign bonds. If market sentiment in EM remains positive, warrants will likely rally further, but at this point we believe that dollar bonds like Boden 15s or Discounts may offer better risk-adjusted returns.

Buyback talks

According to the 2011 budget bill the government sent to Congress, there is a ARS8.7 billion provision for the "repurchase of GDP-linked debts," which the market took as an indications of official plans to buy back warrants in a public offering or similar transaction. However, Secretary of Finance Lorenzino later clarified that the government in fact was also considering the repurchase of other type of debts, including GDP warrants.

After taking a look at some of the spreadsheets included in the budget bill, our impression is that chances of a formal repurchase offer for warrants in 2011 look a bit slim, for a variety of reasons:

(1) The budget item "repurchases of GDP-linked debts" is probably a provision for next year's warrant coupon payment due December 15, 2011, as the two basic conditions for payments will surely be fulfilled (real growth higher than 3.3% and actual real GDP well above base case real GDP). There is no other mention of warrants' coupon payments in the rest of uses of funds included in the budget bill, leading us to the conclusion that the warrants repurchase story is likely to be a misunderstanding.

(2) Now that the government cannot count on a majority in Congress, negotiations with opposition groups promise to be tough. In this context, we believe that chances of key budget guidelines being materially changed in the legislative process are high, which would also affect original government strategy on the financing front. Furthermore, some local political observers believe that the entire 2011 budget bill might be rejected by Congress, which means that authorities would have to extend this year's budget into 2011. In this context, the legal background behind an eventual debt buyback proposal today appears a bit fragile.

(3) In the budget bill, the government reckons it might have a financing gap of US$7.5 billion had it not tapped Central Bank foreign reserves by that amount. This suggests that the government's cash position may be not sufficiently comfortable to enable it to launch an aggressive debt buyback program, especially in a year in which key presidential elections are taking place, with public works and social benefits being at the top of spending priorities.

Warrants valuation: Where will the rally go?

Our short-term valuation model basically consists in getting an estimate of the NPV of the next three coupons (NPV3), and assuming that the difference between this measure and actual market prices is a negative function of country risk (proxied by Argentina's EMBI spread index). After the latest official GDP data (especially the 13.8% y/y increase in GDP prices, also a key variable for the calculation of warrants' payout), we have adjusted our NPV3 estimate by 5% to US$7.5, which means that the residual value of warrants is now around US$4.5 (12 minus 7.5). Historical data suggests that this number is fairly consistent with an EMBI level of 600 bps, and allows us to believe that USD warrants have stopped being massively undervalued as was the case during most of this year. In the same direction, a relative value analysis against local equities also indicates that the days of very cheap warrants are probably gone.

That said, warrants have proved to be an excellent vehicle to express upbeat growth views on EM in general and Argentina in particular, which means that external markets will continue to be a key driver in this market. Our main point is that in order to obtain expected returns of 15%-20% (a reasonable reward for its very high beta status), our model indicates that this would require EMBI spreads south of 525 bps, real GDP growth above 6% in 2011, an stable FX rate over the next 15 months, or a combination of these factors. Up to this point, we think that such a scenario probably looks a bit overambitious, thus leading us to the conclusion that USD warrants positions above the 12 mark should be handled with care.

consulta;
como vendra el dato del EMAE. ¡?
este viernes... no ¡?

Gracias Puma.