Mensajepor Phantom » Jue Ago 01, 2013 3:23 pm
BofAML views on the Argentina Economy
We think there were some positive factors recently:
First, the midterm elections. Polls indicate that the government coalition is likely to lose in all the main electoral districts, including the province of Buenos Aires. But, given base effects, it will most likely not lose many seats in Congress. So the outcome is likely to be one in which Cristina Kirchner neither gathers enough support to pass a Constitutional reform, nor one in which she completely loses power. We think this is probably the less adverse scenario for the next two years.
Second is that activity has picked up in the second quarter, as expected due to the better harvest and more government spending, among other factors. But, does this mean the economy is headed toward a growth rate much higher than 3%? We do not think so. We still believe growth as measured by the private sector will stay below 3% this year.
In terms of government statistics and the payment of the Warrant, the story is different. INDEC numbers, with growth rates about 7% yoy in April and May, make the Warrant payment more likely. The government would have to make revisions to past data and show a marked slowdown in 2H to put growth below 3.22% and avoid paying the Warrant next year. But it can be done. The government has time up to 1 November 2014 to make changes. It is important to note that National Accounts use 1993 as base year, so they are outdated, and hence changes to the base year are not unlikely. Paying the Warrant in 2014 would put Argentina in a difficult position with its reserves.
And this brings us to the point that, despite these positives, the trend continues to be very bad for Argentina. We expect activity to contract in 2014. If the government pays the Warrant next year, even under optimistic assumptions, net international reserves would drop to about 24bn at the end of 2014. Add to that the fact that soybean and corn prices, after being very well behaved in recent weeks, are dropping fast in recent days. So the conclusion that we took in our 12 April piece (Argentina: A presidential election too far) that capacity to pay will be imperiled by the end of this administration under many scenarios still holds.
Fuente: No puedo.
e igualmente tambien gane y mucho mas que alla aca, y eso sin necesidad de perderlo todo con AUSO. Inversor cinico, cuenta los 10 pesos que gana en el año olvidandose de los 100 que perdio 
