Foro de Rava Bursátil

srv1239 escribió:Uno más...este de "Kredit":

Black Friday. Earlier in the year, we had upgraded Petrobras to Outperform predicated on an inflection points on three fronts: (1) production growth, (2) management's credibility and early achievements to turn Petrobras around, and (3) the possibility of a more benign government attitude with surprise price increases. Of those three, production growth is very much intact, but the latter two were significantly impaired after last Friday's announcement in our view. Timid price increases and an opaque pricing methodology deteriorate corporate governance perception, weaken the position of a strong, technical management team, have a significant impact of earnings and valuation, and leave the balance sheet extremely fragile amidst a 2014 full of uncertainties. We downgrade to Underperform, TP $14/ADR.

Beware 2014. 2014 now seems an incredibly delicate year for PBR. An opaque pricing formula does not show the hoped progress over the previous methodology. It also raises the question of how one can be confident on further price increases in 2014, an election year with increasing concerns about inflation and depreciation of the BRL. All these issues have a tangible impact on PBR. Without further meaningful price hikes, it only takes a 10% BRL depreciation to make PBR a 12.5x PE stock, with a $30bn funding gap and all-time high leverage of 4.4x. This leaves little room for any operational disappointments or eventual monthly delays to production. Furthermore, a pricing policy that is more attached to balance sheet than to oil prices is inconsistent with the PBR's business needs and competitive environment.

See you in 2015. What needs to happen in 2015 for the stated pricing policy to reach is objectives of a 2.5x ND/EBITDA? If there are no hikes in 2014 and if the BRL does not depreciate further, Petrobras would have to raise prices by more than 20% in each fuel. If such increases took place, the shares would look cheap at 5.0x PE. Those would be the highest single price hikes ever in Brazil. How likely would that be? See you in 2015.

srv1239 escribió:Estoy totalmente afuera de acá pero les comparto un reporte del "Doichbank", una primera impresión del aumento de precios:


Petrobras - Price increase: inadequate solution for a structural issue

Price increase: inadequate solution for a structural problem
We expect the market’s reaction to the price adjustment to be negative, despite the benefits of the increase. The main reasons are: (1) the increase is below what Petrobras needs to close the gap to international prices and end losses, and (2) the market will likely be concerned that this could be the last price increase until the 2014 Presidential election. We note that the impact on final consumer should be even more subdued than the 4% (gasoline) and 8% (diesel) price increase, reinforcing the view that the government remains unwilling to have fuel prices impact inflation and to raise disapproval among the population (hence the very limited increase in gasoline price).
What about the pricing mechanism?
Despite the wording on the press release: “Petrobras informs of the implementation of its pricing policy” and “following the recommendation of its board of directors, for commercial reasons, the parameters of the pricing methodology will be strictly internal to Petrobras”, it is clear that company’s proposal of a pricing mechanism that improves visibility of convergence to international parity was not accepted by the government. We do note the statement made by Petrobras that the company aims at lowering debt ratios to targets within 24 months, and that the board will monitor the company’s ratios, raising the possibly of new price increases. However, the 24 month time frame is a bit too long for the market to price any improvement at this point.
What is next for the stock?
Despite the announcement, gasoline and diesel prices locally remain below parity as well as the prices of other refined products. With losses expected to remain, domestic oil production growth should be the main driver for the shares over the next months. However, stronger domestic demand of refined products and the strengthening of the USD should deteriorate the company’s balance sheet and limit stock performance. In the event of lower oil prices and the government’s decision to allow Petrobras to maintain gasoline and diesel prices unchanged, the company should improve refining results and even recover past losses (estimated at USD33bn since 1Q08). However, lower oil prices should not bode well for the sector’s performance.