http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarket ... -overhang/
After meeting with management, J.P. Morgan agrees, but is more constructive than street expectations, saying Petrobras may pick up production in a year. J.P. Morgan has a Neutral rating on Petrobras.
Here are analysts Caio M Carvalhal and Felipe Dos Santos:
Production is set to grow in 2014, and it should be the main stock trigger going forward. In our opinion, as opposed to the negative consensus view for Petrobras next year, production growth and new refining capacity arriving by late 2014
should create an entry point by mid-2014.Apart from fuel prices, Petrobras has another overhang, which is a potential credit downgrade on Brazil. Here is J.P. Morgan again:
The main risk we see for Petrobras in the short term is the risk of Brazil being downgraded by the rating agencies and dragging Petrobras down together.