Re: TVPP TVPA TVPY Cupones Vinculados al PBI
Publicado: Mié May 11, 2011 10:15 am
RBS Securities
Argentina | RV across USD bonds.
Colombia | Monetary tightening to continue despite lower inflation Mexico | Short-term market themes dominate.
Venezuela | Increasing oil dependence.
ARGENTINA | RV ACROSS USD BONDS. On scaling back on the GDP warrants (capturing the 14.7% gains from 15.0 to 17.2) and unwinding the exposure to the ARS Discount bonds, we reassess opportunity across the USD curve. We still hold a structurally long position in the GDP warrants, and our core view is that the GDP warrants will hit the payment cap sooner as opposed to later. However, it is also important to trade around the market directionality, with an opportunity to book some profits after impressive gains. Part of these gains were clearly market directional with ideal timing in the context of the credit spreads retracing from the high end of the range to the low end of the range. We still believe that fair valuation is around 20-25 (dependent upon whether 2-4 upfront payments), however the market typically trades with a significant discount (which on most conservative scenario coincided at 17.0 market prices). We also adopted a slightly more conservative strategy on return from our recent trip, realizing that it would be difficult to expect a recovery in the CER Discount bonds on the slim prospects of regime change or policy shift (Indec reform). The widespread perception of "status quo" is also adding some pressure on the blue chip FX rate with no support from local investors on the view of an eventual FX adjustment from the high growth/high inflation imbalance. This cautious investor view can also be seen through the increasing trend of USD curve steepening with less appetite for higher cash price or illiquid bonds. The front end of the USD curve should also benefit from limited supply risk with officials prioritizing local funding sources to reaffirm their low reliance on external funding sources. We assume that the Boden'15 will benefit more from its short duration than suffer from its onshore status (now trading expensive to the Global USD'17). There is also a liquidity overhang on the EUR bonds with hedge funds still looking for an exit strategy post debt re-offer and the officials not signaling any intentions to offer a EUR into USD exchange for the Discount bonds. Therefore, we would expect the EUR spread premium to persist against the USD Discount and Par bonds. [Siobhan Morden]
abrazo
salva +3
Argentina | RV across USD bonds.
Colombia | Monetary tightening to continue despite lower inflation Mexico | Short-term market themes dominate.
Venezuela | Increasing oil dependence.
ARGENTINA | RV ACROSS USD BONDS. On scaling back on the GDP warrants (capturing the 14.7% gains from 15.0 to 17.2) and unwinding the exposure to the ARS Discount bonds, we reassess opportunity across the USD curve. We still hold a structurally long position in the GDP warrants, and our core view is that the GDP warrants will hit the payment cap sooner as opposed to later. However, it is also important to trade around the market directionality, with an opportunity to book some profits after impressive gains. Part of these gains were clearly market directional with ideal timing in the context of the credit spreads retracing from the high end of the range to the low end of the range. We still believe that fair valuation is around 20-25 (dependent upon whether 2-4 upfront payments), however the market typically trades with a significant discount (which on most conservative scenario coincided at 17.0 market prices). We also adopted a slightly more conservative strategy on return from our recent trip, realizing that it would be difficult to expect a recovery in the CER Discount bonds on the slim prospects of regime change or policy shift (Indec reform). The widespread perception of "status quo" is also adding some pressure on the blue chip FX rate with no support from local investors on the view of an eventual FX adjustment from the high growth/high inflation imbalance. This cautious investor view can also be seen through the increasing trend of USD curve steepening with less appetite for higher cash price or illiquid bonds. The front end of the USD curve should also benefit from limited supply risk with officials prioritizing local funding sources to reaffirm their low reliance on external funding sources. We assume that the Boden'15 will benefit more from its short duration than suffer from its onshore status (now trading expensive to the Global USD'17). There is also a liquidity overhang on the EUR bonds with hedge funds still looking for an exit strategy post debt re-offer and the officials not signaling any intentions to offer a EUR into USD exchange for the Discount bonds. Therefore, we would expect the EUR spread premium to persist against the USD Discount and Par bonds. [Siobhan Morden]
abrazo
salva +3
Aunque nuestro mercado, mucha bola no le da. 
