PiConsultora escribió:The path of least resistance...
Over the last years, we’ve been talking about the rising risk that Petrobras might have
to go through another capital increase to address its rising leverage and we’ve often
been faced with significant investors pushback before we explained the why’s and the
how’s of our reasoning. In essence we see a capital increase as one of the possible
paths that Brazil’s government can follow to address Petrobras’ balance sheet.
The underlying assumption of our belief is that, at some moment, credit markets and
credit rating agencies will see their degree of leniency towards Petrobras’ high and
rising leverage fall and will demand more aggressive action from the company to
either continue to finance its vast capital expenditure program, or to simply keep the
company’s investment grade rating.
Our belief from that moment on is simple. Of all the possible courses of action that
the government might chose, a capital increase is in fact the least painful, least
economically costly and most effective. We do not believe the capital increase will
come because it is the only possible course of action, but rather that the government
will chose that course of action.
Los caminos citados por BTG son:
1) Elevar precios
2)Reducción Capex
3) Venta de activos
4) Capitalización
La única que siempre me dio miedo es una nueva capitalización...en el plan de negocios de PBR y en cada reunión, afirman y reafirman que no habrá nueva emisión de acciones; pero también es cierto que los números no cierran.. si genera 30 e invierte 45; tiene que tomar deuda por 15 y ya deuda le sobra... Veremos que dicen en la conference call del lunes.
