Foro de Rava Bursátil

todos no,
algunos dirás, probablemente la gran mayoría.
No generalices[/quote]

PiConsultora escribió:Estimados...gracias a Dios, mi niño a nacido en perfecto estado de salud y ya está en casa....

Felicidades!!!

The path of least resistance...
Over the last years, we’ve been talking about the rising risk that Petrobras might have
to go through another capital increase to address its rising leverage and we’ve often
been faced with significant investors pushback before we explained the why’s and the
how’s of our reasoning. In essence we see a capital increase as one of the possible
paths that Brazil’s government can follow to address Petrobras’ balance sheet.
The underlying assumption of our belief is that, at some moment, credit markets and
credit rating agencies will see their degree of leniency towards Petrobras’ high and
rising leverage fall and will demand more aggressive action from the company to
either continue to finance its vast capital expenditure program, or to simply keep the
company’s investment grade rating.
Our belief from that moment on is simple. Of all the possible courses of action that
the government might chose, a capital increase is in fact the least painful, least
economically costly and most effective. We do not believe the capital increase will
come because it is the only possible course of action, but rather that the government
will chose that course of action.

Empirico escribió:claro, ahora falta poco, pero cuando lo dije, todos cuestionaban .
había alguien que en su momento me cristicaba porque para llegar debía bajar un 16% en ese momento.

siga... siga....

Dejá de mirarte el ombligo y aprovechá a llevar en tu target
Acá no hay que tener razón, acá hay que ganar guita. Podes tener razón y esperarla en 60... el papel llega a 60,5 y decidís esperarla un poco más.. de repente se vuela a 100 y no tuviste ni razón (casi) ni plata

Hoy cierra arriba de usd 11 ---

Miren si será complicada de analizar y cuanta incertidumbre genera que los escenarios son 30% abajo o 100% arriba..... Los analistas están tan a la deriva como nosotros, o al menos es lo que indican en sus informes...

Still a Neutral on our hopes for improvement...
As Petrobras’ stock now trades close to our weighted average target price, we are
maintaining our Neutral rating unchanged. We are aware that the most likely scenario
that we see for the stock could bring about a further 30% of so downside to the stock.
But we believe that its 100%+ potential upside, in the event that Petrobras does
address its balance sheet, is not ignorable.
To a certain extent, we are betting on either...
The possibility that Petrobras is given “license to kill” Brazil’s somewhat tenuous
monetary stability, by raising prices by some 25-30% next year to fund its strong
Capex and appease debt markets;
The possibility that Petrobras is allowed to significantly slow down its Capex
program, or is willing to face multiple years of core asset sales that could lead to
further deceleration of economic activity or “privatization” branding; or
The possibility that major supply disruptions in global oil markets push oil prices
high enough that even if Petrobras is not charging parity pricing, debt markets
can believe that its balance sheet is solvable at the flick of a pen.
We understand all three are tall orders. But in them rests our Neutral rating.

PiConsultora escribió:
3.220

Empirico escribió:claro, ahora falta poco, pero cuando lo dije, todos cuestionaban .
había alguien que en su momento me cristicaba porque para llegar debía bajar un 16% en ese momento.

siga... siga....

todos no,
algunos dirás, probablemente la gran mayoría.
No generalices

discrepo con vos.
Hoy las noticias son buenas: le dieron aumento de precios, hasta septiembre viene aumentando la producción muy bien, ahora en noviembre abre la nueva refinería y hasta se están iniciando investigaciones por la corrupción asociada a la empresa.

Lo que si le sigue pegando y muy duro es el mal humor para con Dilma y su gobierno.[/quote]


Ojala, Luis.....veo que los que cortan el bacalao aun no decidieron ponerle fichas. en algun momento seguramente lo hatran....ojala sea lo antes posible.

claro, ahora falta poco, pero cuando lo dije, todos cuestionaban .
había alguien que en su momento me cristicaba porque para llegar debía bajar un 16% en ese momento.

siga... siga....

Lupo escribió:Me alegro mucho Pi felicitaciones ! Cuànto pesò ?

Meten miedo, suba inminente

PiConsultora escribió:3.220

Feliciationes Pi!!!!!

Lupo escribió:Me alegro mucho Pi felicitaciones ! Cuànto pesò ?

Meten miedo, suba inminente

3.220

Me alegro mucho Pi felicitaciones ! Cuànto pesò ?

Meten miedo, suba inminente

Empirico escribió:YA VAN A ENTENDER INFIELES QUE ESTO VA A
9.60

Falta 9 % Empírico
no es tanto

Estimados...gracias a Dios, mi niño a nacido en perfecto estado de salud y ya está en casa....

por el lado de PBR está bien pesimista todo...

copio informe de BTG Pascual y los riesgos que ven de nueva capitalización...

Are we just too irrational to think of capital increases?
Last night, Petrobras announced a price hike for inflation sensitive gasoline and
economy sensitive diesel that was its first in almost a year, after months of significant
refining losses.
Yet, on the back of the price increase we are cutting our target for the company to
$11.2/ADR from $15.5/ADR and reiterating our Neutral rating even if the stock is fairly
close to its lows.
The price increase was not the only driver behind our forecast changes. Lower oil
prices and a weaker currency played a large part in our forecast cuts and new target
calculation.
But the magnitude of the price increase and government official statements that
preceded it made up the bulk of our target setting thought process – effectively
leading into our target price cut.
We understand we are somewhat off consensus in our views. We believe that at
present Petrobras’ balance sheet is more important than the short term earnings
kicker that we see from the price increase.
Petrobras can address the balance sheet in many ways... It can raise prices much
more, but that would lead to significant inflation. It can cut Capex significantly but that
would lead to lower economic activity. It could sell core assets but politics blocks that.
Our lower target and Neutral rating rest on our view that given the choice, Brazil’s
government will not do any of those things and will actually pick the path of least
resistance to address the issue and still get low inflation and high Capex.
We believe the lower oil prices and weaker currency have made the potential for a
capital increase at Petrobras rise. In this report we go through both why we think so
and how we see it playing out with minimal fiscal impact.
Such a scenario, could potentially be very negative for well-intended minority
investors. We believe Petrobras might have to price such a “solution” at around a
30% discount to current valuations and that investors won’t want to be there...
But we are maintaining our Neutral rating nonetheless. On the one hand, we do so
because at present the weighted average of our capital increase scenario (80% at
$8.5) and our muddle through scenario (at $22) is not far from the current share price.
But in part, we do it hoping for real change: (i) the potential that Petrobras is allowed
to raise prices a lot in spite of inflation; (ii) that it is allowed to cut Capex in spite of the
GDP implications; or (iii) the potential that oil prices rally a lot.