Esta es la segunda parte de uno de los analisis hecho en SA sobre VALE, ahora mencionando las perspectivas con los dividendos:
Vale will benefit from several positive developments in the current year. First, after completion of the S11D project, capital expenditures will decline by $1.1B to $4.5B. Second, the ramp-up of S11D will bring Vale's average unit costs down. Third, Vale's other business segments are likely to see substantial improvements as well. Base metals will benefit from lower production costs and higher prices for nickel and copper, and Vale's loss-making coal business should finally become EBITDA positive in 2017.
During 2016, Vale's adjusted EBITDA increased quarter by quarter, and the company became free cash flow positive which enabled it to reduce debt. After net debt had climbed to $27.5B at the end of Q2, it was lowered by $1.5B in the third quarter, and it will fall further in Q4.
In the December investor presentation Vale showed that analysts were expecting the company to end up with $2.2B of free cash flow on $10.3B of EBITDA in the year 2017.
Even the more optimistic scenario in blue is based on an iron ore price which is $20 below today's actual level, so if prices remain firm, there is significant additional upside potential. If we assume that 2017 FCF comes in at $5.0B and a 75/25 split between debt reduction and dividends, the 2017 payment would increase five-fold.
Despite the great 2016 performance, I remain bullish on the mining industry in general and on iron ore in particular. The free cash flows of the major producers are about to increase significantly which should translate into higher dividends again.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4042857 ... -dividends