Mensajepor Gaston89 » Vie Ene 30, 2015 10:27 am
Petrobras risk lingers, weighs on sovereign
We remain of the idea that Petrobras’ risk would continue to weigh on Brazil’s
CDS – which otherwise seems too wide vs. the country’s improving
fiscal/monetary outlook. Petrobras’ state of denial reflected in its 3Q financial
report, in which the board did not include the (corruption related) write-offs,
suggest risk will likely linger. Hedge fund Aurelius is claiming that Petrobras
remains in breach of financial reporting bond covenants relative to its 3Q14
financials by arguing that the 3Q14 unaudited financials (reported on
Wednesday) do not comply with IASB rules due to the failure to recognize
write-offs related to corruption practices being investigated. Petrobras’
unaudited 3Q14 financial statements claims they are in accordance with the
IASB, except for the errors in the carrying amount of certain property, plant
and equipment, which could not be corrected by the Company as of the date
of issue of these financial statements (in the so-called “Note 2”). As Petrobras
did not even mention corruption, it does seem that they opened an important
flank for litigation. According to bond indentures, Petrobras had until 29 Dec
2014 (with a 60-day cure period) to publish its unaudited 3Q14 results. The
cure period starts to count once holders of 25% or more of a bond series sends
a technical default notice to the trustee. If Petrobras remains in denial about
the need to restate its 3Q14 results by the end of its cure period (as early as 27
Feb 2015) and assuming bondholders sent a default notice, it is exposed to
litigation. The risk there is that Petrobras could see virtually all of its debt
(USD136bn) accelerated through cross-default provisions on its bonds and
loans should the court decide that the company failed to comply with IASB
rules on the preparation of its 3Q14 financials. Even if everything goes well on
this front, the credit is still exposed to the risk of BRL and – to a lesser extent -
oil. The combination of oil below 50 and USD/BRL above 3.15 would
significant increase the downgrade risk (see chart) – this is not our baseline,
but does not seem a trivial risk either. As we go to print, Moody’s has just
downgraded Petrobras to Baa3 and kept it on review for further downgrade,
citing “deepening scope of the investigation of improper payments, which
Moody's believes heightens uncertainty about the timely delivery of audited
financial statements and could lead to significant liquidity pressures.”