Re: VALE Vale
Publicado: Jue Mar 23, 2017 11:43 am
RECORD MARCH IRON ORE IMPORTS?
On the data front, it appears that China's iron ore imports will be high again in March, continuing their recent strength.
Vessel-tracking and port data compiled by Thomson Reuters Supply Chain and Commodity Forecasts show that an estimated 97.79 million tonnes of iron ore is due to, or has already, arrived at Chinese ports in March.
If the actual number is close to this estimate, it would be a record for monthly imports, and above the customs figures of 83.49 million tonnes in February and 92 million in January.
The vessel-tracking data typically comes in below the customs numbers, but even if the final numbers are below the current estimate, it's still likely that March will be an exceptionally strong month.
The point of concern in the prevailing market narrative is the level of port stockpiles in China, which rose to 131 million tonnes in the week to March 17, up from 113.9 million at the start of this year, and 65 percent above the low of 79.4 million recorded in mid-2015.
The level of inventories has been one factor regularly cited by market analysts as to why iron ore prices must inevitably decline, a process that finally appears to be underway.
While it's always difficult to predict how far prices will drop, it does seem the ongoing correction is likely to be steeper for the DCE futures than for the spot price, and the Singapore Exchange contracts, which are based on the spot assessments.
The SGX futures curve <0#SZZF:> is indicating a price of $65.89 a tonne for the contract expiring in December this year, a level closer to what many analysts would deem fair value.
But a measured decline to those levels would be unusual, given the recent history of price spikes and slumps in iron ore.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN16U0FE
On the data front, it appears that China's iron ore imports will be high again in March, continuing their recent strength.
Vessel-tracking and port data compiled by Thomson Reuters Supply Chain and Commodity Forecasts show that an estimated 97.79 million tonnes of iron ore is due to, or has already, arrived at Chinese ports in March.
If the actual number is close to this estimate, it would be a record for monthly imports, and above the customs figures of 83.49 million tonnes in February and 92 million in January.
The vessel-tracking data typically comes in below the customs numbers, but even if the final numbers are below the current estimate, it's still likely that March will be an exceptionally strong month.
The point of concern in the prevailing market narrative is the level of port stockpiles in China, which rose to 131 million tonnes in the week to March 17, up from 113.9 million at the start of this year, and 65 percent above the low of 79.4 million recorded in mid-2015.
The level of inventories has been one factor regularly cited by market analysts as to why iron ore prices must inevitably decline, a process that finally appears to be underway.
While it's always difficult to predict how far prices will drop, it does seem the ongoing correction is likely to be steeper for the DCE futures than for the spot price, and the Singapore Exchange contracts, which are based on the spot assessments.
The SGX futures curve <0#SZZF:> is indicating a price of $65.89 a tonne for the contract expiring in December this year, a level closer to what many analysts would deem fair value.
But a measured decline to those levels would be unusual, given the recent history of price spikes and slumps in iron ore.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN16U0FE
