DIA Dow Jones 30 (ETF)

[MrGekko]

Respecto de BP, acá va una parte de un artículo que discute los costos posteriores (limpieza, juicios, etc.). También habla del posible corte de dividendos (yo creo que hay un 60% de probabilidades que lo corten/reduzcan, lo que amplificaría la caída de las acciones.

Como le están dando duro y parejo a muchas otras compañías petroleras y de servicios, creo que sería mejor fijarse en alguna otra que esté cayendo pero que no tengo los futuros daños por juicios. En mi lista están RIG (Transocean), APC (Anadarko, tenía 25% del pozo que reventó), NOV (no tiene nada que ver con el desastre, es una compañía de servicios petroleros, pero le están dando lindo también.
BP la veo muy riesgosa en este momento: una caída de 12% con un volumen muy alto no es buen augurio.


Exxon comparison

The nearest cleanup comparison would be the Exxon Valdez, which is now the second worst in U.S. history.

Fadel Gheit, an analyst at Oppenheimer Research, notes Exxon originally set aside $5.4 billion to cover legal settlements and paid $3.4 billion in cleanup costs. The Exxon legal settlement was eventually reduced to just $507.5 million with $500 million in interest payments.

Under the Oil Pollution Act passed since the Exxon spill, damages are capped at just $75 million. Even if Congress retroactively boosts that cap to $10 billion, as some analysts are speculating, BP would be on the hook for just $6.5 billion, because it owns 65% of the concession.

That cap on damages goes out the window, however, if BP is shown to be negligent.

As for its ability to pay, the company generated $27.7 billion in cash from operating activities during 2009, and at the first-quarter's conclusion, it had a debt-to-equity ratio of just 19%, a level that BP has previously said it would be willing to stretch to as high as 30%.

BP's annual dividend costs $10.4 billion and it spends over $20 billion on capital spending.

Its dividend yield is nearly 9%, by far the biggest for the oil majors -- but that number is potentially misleading if BP scales back or eliminates its dividend.

"Questions about BP's ability to maintain its dividend are now surely beginning to be asked," said Westhouse's Hart.
The complicated calculus goes beyond even the damages and cleanup costs, however, because of President Obama's newly announced moratorium on Gulf of Mexico drilling.

Lucas Herrmann, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, points out that Gulf of Mexico accounts for 14% of BP's estimated 2010 production.

A 1% rise in Gulf of Mexico royalties, a six-month drilling moratorium and a 20% increase in drilling and completion costs add up to a hit of $1.95 billion to BP's bottom line for 2010, he says.

More worrisome for BP would be if the U.S. deepwater restrictions were to go beyond six months, and if other countries also were to make moves to curb deepwater activity.

The European Commission already is examining this issue.

Westhouse's Hart also questioned BP's future in Russia, where its joint venture accounts for about a quarter of production.

"BP's stewardship of the environment will now become a major issue for the company as it attempts to operate elsewhere in the world as a preferred partner by governments and national oil companies, not least in Russia, where the TNK-BP joint venture represents nearly a quarter of the group's output," he said.

[El rosarino]

Los fierros bancando al DOW, JNJ, WMT y T .... si XOM e IBM despiertan, el rebote se hace realidad.

[PAC]

otro ??????



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eso no es un HCH es un jorobado de notredam

si esto es un HCH yo soy Mariano R

[PAC]

mira de corto no la analice todavia esto puse el 30 de abril

http://pacinversor.blogspot.com/2010/04 ... -long.html

despue hago una mirada mas corta de como la veo.

[CHIQUI1]

A BP la estan enterrando, lo mas bajo en 10 años fur niveles de U$S 34 en el2003 y 2009, estamos cerca 37.70 veremos...

[chrisdelboca]

GS ta limpiando en DO gap de 3 dolares y HAL gap de 2 dolares como modifican todo terrible las dos con un gap de inicio que deja un desfasaje en el movimiento cuando acomode dejan un desastre

Estos guachos van a limpiar a todos y vuelan solos

conseguir maximos o minimos es suerte..
23 el HAL adentro
59 en DO adentro ..

las aguanto 1 semanita. veremos ( no me sigan)

Que suicida!..

[PAC]

GS ta limpiando en DO gap de 3 dolares y HAL gap de 2 dolares como modifican todo terrible las dos con un gap de inicio que deja un desfasaje en el movimiento cuando acomode dejan un desastre

Estos guachos van a limpiar a todos y vuelan solos

conseguir maximos o minimos es suerte..
23 el HAL adentro
59 en DO adentro ..

las aguanto 1 semanita. veremos ( no me sigan)

[PAC]

el silencio es salud.. cuando mas de uno tiene miedo y panico eso es cuando el mercado va a amagar y sale bull

[0zK]

in SCO 14.99

cuando el oil estaba en 75.35 entre .. ahora ...73.35 . 2usd en cuestion de 1hra ... querian volatilidad ? aca tenés !!! :110:
tampoco ver un oil por encima de 75 usd es de creer .. por eso es que sigo mentalizado en operar en el rango 9.800 / 10.200
sigan a papeles de oil, que se pueden hacer cosas muy lindas