Mensajepor Mr_Baca » Vie Sep 23, 2011 3:22 pm
DJ SURVEY: Argentina's 2Q Current Account Surplus Seen At $1.8B
22-Sep-2011
By Ken Parks
OF DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--Argentina likely ran a current account surplus during the second quarter thanks to favorable terms of trade for its grain exports.
The national statistics agency, Indec, is expected to report a current-account surplus of $1.80 billion, according to the median estimate of nine economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.
If correct, it would mark a turnaround from the $673 million deficit reported in the third quarter, though it would be considerably smaller than the $3.16 billion surplus in the second quarter of 2010.
Indec is scheduled to release its estimate of the current account, a broad measure of a country's transactions with the rest of the world, on Friday at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
"We suspect that despite a robust soft commodity harvest and the associated exports, the loss of competitiveness as Argentina's real exchange rate appreciates (via inflation) is leading to a significant run-up in imports and erosion of the current account surplus," Morgan Stanley economists said in a note.
Argentina's peso has firmed in inflation-adjusted terms because the central bank has been weakening the currency at a much lower rate than inflation, which is widely believed to be running at more than 20% a year.
Up until just a few months ago, Argentine manufacturers were shielded from inflation and a strong peso by the rapid appreciation of Brazil's real. Brazil is Argentina's largest trading partner, and a major buyer of automobiles and industrial goods produced in Argentina.
But the real has reversed course and has now weakened about 12% versus the U.S. dollar so far this year, which will put pressure on President Cristina Kirchner to speed up the depreciation of the peso if she wins reelection in October, as is widely expected.
"The recent real weakness is putting pressure on Argentina's bilateral competitiveness. This is relevant for Argentina as 40% of its exports to Brazil are vehicles and vehicle parts which are price sensitive," Nomura Securities strategist Boris Segura said in a note.