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Articulo del Wall Street Journal:
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-201 ... 13869.html
Sky-High Yields Draw Investors To Argentina GDP Warrants
--GDP warrants offer some of the highest yields among emerging-market bonds after recent declines
--Warrant prices have plunged with other Argentine assets in broader market selloff
--Volatility means GDP warrants aren't for the faint of heart
By Shane Romig
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--Argentina's GDP warrants, a novel fixed-income security tied to the country's economic growth, are back on investors' radar following recent price declines and the prospect of hefty payouts in coming years.
"They provide a lot of value. You are buying the [chance to gain from] future Argentine growth...for free," Barclays Capital economist Sebastian Vargas said in an emailed response to questions.
The warrants offer "one of the highest yields in emerging market external debt today," BofA Merrill Lynch said in a report.
The 2035 dollar-denominated GDP warrant is trading at a discount of around 40% to its theoretical value, yielding about 27.8%, according to BofA Merrill Lynch.
The warrants haven't been immune to the recent selloff in emerging-markets assets as investors fret that a recession or default in developed countries would have dire implications for fast-growing emerging-market nations like Argentina.
Friday was no exception, with the 2035 dollar warrants closing 2.9% lower at ARS66.00 ($15.70) during a session marked by broad declines in global markets. The warrants are up nearly 39% on the year, but have fallen 19.5% from their 52-week high of ARS81.95 on Aug. 3.
The warrants were initially tacked on as "sweeteners" to the country's $100 billion global debt restructuring offer at the end of 2004.
Payouts are triggered when inflation-adjusted GDP growth exceeds 3.2%. The warrants--denominated in euros, pesos and dollars--payout until 2035, or until payments reach 48% of the face value outstanding.
"It's reasonable to think that Argentina's long-term growth is greater than [3.2%]," Vargas said.
The government expects the economy to expand about 8% this year, and the 2012 budget bill submitted to Congress forecasts 5.1% growth next year.
Payments are made each December based on the reported GDP growth of the previous year. In the budget bill, the government forecast GDP warrant payments of ARS15.3 billion next year and ARS18.9 billion in 2013.
According to BofA Merrill Lynch calculations, the payout on the U.S. dollar warrant this December will be 29% of its current price, rising to 68% with the 2012 payout, 86% in 2013, and 107% by 2014. After that, future payouts are all gravy.
But investors tempted by those juicy payouts need to be prepared for a wild ride as price movements tend to be greater than those of benchmark indexes, analysts warn.
"When the S&P [500 equity index] goes down, these go down sharply as well," Vargas said. "But if you can stomach the volatility of these securities, I do believe that they provide a lot of value."
Despite signs of a slowing global economy, Barclays still expects Argentina's economy to grow 4.4% next year, enough to trigger a payout in 2013.
