Comentarios sobre los informes de producción
https://seekingalpha.com/article/409007 ... 3b743&dr=1
Vale
Vale reported that it produced 91.8 million tons of iron ore in 2Q17. This is 5.8% higher than in 2Q16 and 6.6% higher compared to 1Q17. Nevertheless, the company stated that full-year iron ore production in 2017 will be within the lower end of the previous 360 million – 380 million tons guidance range. The reason for this is the company’s ongoing strategy to maximize margins. Vale also reiterated its long-term base case production target of 400 million tons of iron ore per year.
Worst fears did not materialize. Vale ramps up S11D while reducing production from other mines. The massive S11D project has been one of the main hopes of iron ore bears. In case Vale did not cut production from other mines and ramped up S11D irresponsibly, the negative impact on the iron ore market would have been enormous. However, it looks like Vale have learned lessons from the previous iron ore slump and is not ready to sacrifice iron ore price in self-destructive battle for market share.
BHP
BHP reported production of 60 million tons in 2Q17. This is 8% higher than in 2Q16 and 12% higher compared to 1Q17. Guidance for FY2018 was increased to 239 million – 243 million tons from 231 million tons in FY2017. At the mid-point of the new guidance, BHP expects to increase production by about 4%.
In my view, BHP is running out of steam with production increases. The company now has other things to focus on, like the involvement of the activist fund Elliott Management or hot debate about the future of its major potash project. Shareholders have learned the lessons of overspending on iron ore production growth and the management is under pressure to deliver real results instead of volume growth numbers.
Rio Tinto
Rio Tinto reported 2Q17 production of 79.8 million tons, down 6% from 2Q16 and up 1% from 1Q17. Shipments were even lower at 77.7 million tons, impacted by accelerated rail track maintenance. Rio Tinto stated that further rail maintenance will continue in the second half of this year. The company’s shipments guidance for 2017 is 330 million tons, down from the previous guidance of 330 million – 340 million tons.
“Accelerated rail track maintenance” that affects Rio Tinto’s shipments is a sure sign that the company understands that the iron ore market does not need additional tons now. With just a few major players in the market, iron ore prices depend heavily on these companies’ ability to keep their ambitions at bay and act responsibly. In my view, the industry has learned the tough lessons of overproduction years and another self-imposed catastrophe is unlikely.
