Foro de Rava Bursátil

DJ Fitch: Argentina Policy Options Narrow With Forex Restrictions
02-Nov-2011
BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--Fitch Ratings said Wednesday that Argentina's implementation of stricter foreign-exchange controls might reduce the government's policy options as it tries to limit capital flight and defend the peso.
"Fitch Ratings sees the potential for a continuation of unorthodox economic policies as a growing risk for Argentina as it seeks to avoid a disorderly currency depreciation and rising inflation," the ratings firm said in a statement.
The government on Monday tightened controls on the local foreign-exchange market by requiring individuals and businesses to receive prior approval from the tax authority before buying foreign currency.
The new control is the latest in a series of measures announced in recent days by the administration of President Cristina Kirchner to stem capital flight that has become a slow but steady drain on Argentina's international reserves.
Last week, the government ordered foreigners buying Argentine companies and real estate to deposit the full amount of the transaction in Argentina. Oil and mining companies now must also repatriate the proceeds of export sales, while insurance companies have to bring all offshore investment home before the year's end.
The Central Bank of Argentina regularly intervenes in the local foreign-exchange market to gradually weaken the peso against the U.S. dollar to help exporters and limit inflation that is widely believed to be running above 20%.
The exchange rate is a politically sensitive issue in a country whose citizens still view the dollar as a safe-haven currency due to Argentina's long history of violent devaluations and financial crisis.
After winning re-election last month with 54% of the vote, Kirchner faces a challenging second term amid a sluggish global economy and high inflation at home.
Argentina's economy is expected to grow at least 8% this year, though economic activity will slow next year, with the government forecasting a 5.1% expansion.
Fitch expects Argentina to report its first current account deficit this year since 2001 due in part to a shrinking trade surplus.
With the outlook for agricultural commodity prices and global growth weakening, Fitch said Argentina faces a more difficult export situation that could exacerbate external imbalances and declines in dollar reserves over coming months.
Fitch said it continues to view any shift to a more pragmatic policies as generally supportive of Argentina's ratings.
"However, ratings remain heavily constrained and could become vulnerable if a disorderly exchange rate adjustment or a significant ramp up in inflationary expectations destabilizes the macroeconomic environment," the ratings firm said.

--Argentina pledges to trim its huge subsidy bill
--Planning Minister announces elimination of subsidies for a number of industries
--Energy subsidies have become especially onerous in recent years
(Updates throughout with background and comments by ministers)

OF DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--Argentina's federal government said Wednesday it will overhaul expensive energy and transportation subsidies that have become a growing burden on public finances.
"We are starting a new stage in the personalization of subsidies...no one should receive a subsidy they don't need because at the end of the day everyone else pays," Planning Minister Julio De Vido said in a televised press conference.
De Vido said public utility rates that consumers pay will remain unchanged.
Effective immediately, he said financial companies, mobile operators and resource extraction firms, among other sectors, will no longer receive water, gas and electricity subsidies for annual savings of 600 million pesos ($142 million).
The federal government also start talks this week to hand over the Buenos Aires subway system, which requires about ARS700 million a year in subsidies, to the city government, De Vido said.
Economy Minister Amado Boudou said the government will set up a commission to review and recommend changes to the subsidy regime that will be implemented "as soon as possible."
Boudou said local factors and an international backdrop colored by slow growth and volatility made a review of the subsidies necessary.
It remains to be seen if the government's pledge to trim its subsidy bill is a one-off measure or part of a broader fiscal stabilization program aimed at bringing down double-digit unemployment.
The government's fiscal surplus has largely evaporated due to elevated spending on social programs, subsidies and infrastructure.
Government spending and the central bank's loose monetary policy have contributed to annual inflation that most private-sector economists say is running between 20% and 25%.
"The elimination and/or reduction of some of the subsidies will add pressure to the already challenging high inflation picture, but this is still a necessary step in the right direction for budgetary and economic reasons," Goldman Sachs economist Alberto Ramos said in a note.
Cheap utility services and public transportation are a key pillar of President Cristina Kirchner's economic program that favors high growth. Those subsidies have allowed consumers to spend more, while industry has benefited from low-cost gas and electricity.
Argentina's economy is expected to grow about 8% this year, after expanding at an average annual rate of 7.6% between 2003 and 2010.
"Subsidy policies have played a role in the success of Argentina's economic development in those years," Boudou said.
But government outlays on energy subsidies have exploded in recent years as a booming economy and capped natural gas and electricity rates have led to a surge in energy consumption.
ASAP, a non-governmental organization dedicated to improving public-sector finances, estimates energy subsidies totaled ARS19.2 billion in the first half of the year alone, or about 10% of total government spending. Those subsidies were ARS26.0 billion for all of 2010, and just ARS2.1 billion in 2005.
Natural gas price caps have discouraged investment in local production and forced the government to import growing volumes of much more expensive gas from Bolivia and Trinidad & Tobago even though Argentina is thought to hold some of the largest untapped reserves of shale gas in the Americas.
The supply situation has become so precarious that in the cold winter months the government rations gas to industrial users to make sure residential demand is met.
At the same time, energy imports have become a major drag on the trade surplus. Argentina swung to a trade deficit in energy and fuels of $3.0 billion in the January-through-September period, compared with a $1.1 billion surplus a year ago.
Argentina's Merval index of leading shares was recently trading 0.2% higher, led by gains in electric utility stocks. The peso was quoted trading on Argentina's MAE wholesale foreign exchange market at ARS4.2500 to the U.S. dollar, compared to ARS4.2380 at Tuesday's close.
-By Ken Parks, Dow Jones Newswires; 54-11-4103-6740; ken.parks@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 02, 2011 12:44 ET (16:44 GMT)
DJ CORRECT: Argentina's Government To Overhaul Costly Subsidy Regime
(The item "UPDATE: Argentina's Government To Overhaul Costly Subsidy Regime" published at 16:44 GMT incorrectly said unemployment instead of inflation in eighth paragraph)
By Ken Parks
OF DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--Argentina's federal government said Wednesday it will overhaul expensive energy and transportation subsidies that have become a growing burden on public finances.
"We are starting a new stage in the personalization of subsidies...no one should receive a subsidy they don't need because at the end of the day everyone else pays," Planning Minister Julio De Vido said in a televised press conference.
De Vido said public utility rates that consumers pay will remain unchanged.
Effective immediately, he said financial companies, mobile operators and resource extraction firms, among other sectors, will no longer receive water, gas and electricity subsidies for annual savings of 600 million pesos ($142 million).
The federal government also start talks this week to hand over the Buenos Aires subway system, which requires about ARS700 million a year in subsidies, to the city government, De Vido said.
Economy Minister Amado Boudou said the government will set up a commission to review and recommend changes to the subsidy regime that will be implemented "as soon as possible."
Boudou said local factors and an international backdrop colored by slow growth and volatility made a review of the subsidies necessary.
It remains to be seen if the government's pledge to trim its subsidy bill is a one-off measure or part of a broader fiscal stabilization program aimed at bringing down double-digit inflation.
The government's fiscal surplus has largely evaporated due to elevated spending on social programs, subsidies and infrastructure.
Government spending and the central bank's loose monetary policy have contributed to annual inflation that most private-sector economists say is running between 20% and 25%.
"The elimination and/or reduction of some of the subsidies will add pressure to the already challenging high inflation picture, but this is still a necessary step in the right direction for budgetary and economic reasons," Goldman Sachs economist Alberto Ramos said in a note.
Cheap utility services and public transportation are a key pillar of President Cristina Kirchner's economic program that favors high growth. Those subsidies have allowed consumers to spend more, while industry has benefited from low-cost gas and electricity.
Argentina's economy is expected to grow about 8% this year, after expanding at an average annual rate of 7.6% between 2003 and 2010.
"Subsidy policies have played a role in the success of Argentina's economic development in those years," Boudou said.
But government outlays on energy subsidies have exploded in recent years as a booming economy and capped natural gas and electricity rates have led to a surge in energy consumption.
ASAP, a non-governmental organization dedicated to improving public-sector finances, estimates energy subsidies totaled ARS19.2 billion in the first half of the year alone, or about 10% of total government spending. Those subsidies were ARS26.0 billion for all of 2010, and just ARS2.1 billion in 2005.
Natural gas price caps have discouraged investment in local production and forced the government to import growing volumes of much more expensive gas from Bolivia and Trinidad & Tobago even though Argentina is thought to hold some of the largest untapped reserves of shale gas in the Americas.
The supply situation has become so precarious that in the cold winter months the government rations gas to industrial users to make sure residential demand is met.
At the same time, energy imports have become a major drag on the trade surplus. Argentina swung to a trade deficit in energy and fuels of $3.0 billion in the January-through-September period, compared with a $1.1 billion surplus a year ago.
Argentina's Merval index of leading shares was recently trading 0.2% higher, led by gains in electric utility stocks. The peso was quoted trading on Argentina's MAE wholesale foreign exchange market at ARS4.2500 to the U.S. dollar, compared to ARS4.2380 at Tuesday's close.

DJ Argentina October Vehicle Sales +32% On Year; -14.5% On Month
02-Nov-2011
BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--Vehicle sales in Argentina rose 32% on the year to 72,068 units in October, thanks to a booming economy and high inflation that has spurred demand for automobiles, according to an industry trade group.
However, vehicle sales fell 14.5% from September, auto dealer association Acara said in a statement.
Car sales rose 32% on the year to 55,829 units last month, while light commercial vehicle sales increased 30% to 12,912 units.
Consumers are flocking to buy cars and trucks amid an economy that is forecast to grow about 8% this year with unemployment reaching multiyear lows.
However, inflation that most private-sector economists say is running above 20% also explains some of the voracious demand for cars.
Historically, Argentines buy real estate and consumer durable goods like cars to protect the purchasing power of their savings during times of high inflation.
Acara said total vehicles sales during the January-October period rose 32% to 753,150 units, of which 63% were imported vehicles.

Sr jr1929, buen dia, no se puede juzgar a foristas por un post, debes conocer su personalidad y contexto.
En lo particular no me interesa ni te consulte opinion, sobre mi persona o personalidad.
Solo te lo aclaro y no pretendo, intercambiar ideas u opiniones con Ud.

robertomartinp escribió:que verano de mie*** vamos a pasar..veraneando aca, con los negros,
todo por estos put.s que nos vaciaron de reservas,
pardos pardos y mas pardos, chorreando cebo por "mar del grasa".
motochorros, wachiturros, viendo a todo el humildaje paseando en autos nacionales que tienen mas plata metida en stereos que en el resto del auto.al ritmo de "tirate un face , tirate un paso"
me cagaron la vida.
este modelo NAC&POP me da un falso 1A1 pero no me permite disfrutarlo afuera.
cincuentones con cara de culo con la jermu toda gorda y reventada, las tetas caidas, con cinco pendejos maleducados y gritando,porque los negros tienen cinco hijos...peleandose entre ellos a los gritos,
ya me imagino la escena, la gorrda gritando "veniii braiiiaaaan veniii no cruces te dije, ayelen dejale la coca a tu hermano"
el pelado berreta con ojotas adilete al lado con cara de amargado empujando el carrito del mas chiquito que se llama tizziano.
que fetido dios mio..
hay que ir con snorkel a la costa este año...pero con filtro en la punta asi no me ahogo con la caca..

que ISpa de merda que me toco....
no puedo irme...tranquilo al exterior como dios manda

silverado escribió:Me hiciste reier, pero te digo una cosa dentro de todo, mal no nos va, demos gracias a Dios de haber nacido acá, mira si nos hubiera tocado, algún pais de Africa, India, Bolivia, ejemplos sobran, por último vas en febrero y se ve menos gente, hay playas lindas donde va poca gente, el glamour de afuera, y poco...

Tristísimos posteos, uno porque naturaliza la discriminación, a través de un intento de seudo comicidad y el otro por confirmar esta naturalización, al plantear su satisfacción por no haber nacido en el tercer mundo, con total desparpajo. Lamentables...
Hace algún tiempo escribí algo al respecto de la discriminación de la discriminación, posteos como estos creo que ejemplifican lo que expresé. Saludos y disculpas por el Off.

alvarez123 escribió:Algo que me preocupó: Esta mañana consulté las valuaciones de los fondos de inversión en dólares de mi banco. Todos bajaron entre 6 y 7 puede puntos hoy. No tengo plata ahí, pero me preocupó que hubiera algún cambio en la fórmula de cálculo al reconvertirlo en pesos. Llamé a consultas, y me dicen que si, que hubo un cambio en la fórmula de reconversión. Obviamente la chica que me atendió no me dió más detalles. A los que saben: Qué puede ser? Me preocupa porque si hacen algo con los fondos que tienen activos dolarizados, podrían hacer lo mismo con bonos en dólares, por ejemplo?

Buen día, quiero pensar que quien te informó, no estaba acertado, o bien puede ser que el fondo haya tenido un cambio.
Lo que si me parece que no deben quedar dudas es que la liquidación debe ser por el dólar oficial, una fórmula para el dólar sería un promedio, si es asi me parece una chambonada.

No quiso pasar a la historia como el que sumió al pueblo en la indignidad.

AUGUSTO escribió: Sí, y Papandreu con el.

Seba escribió:Papandreu se ha quedado solo...

El Gobierno de Grecia ha perdido la mayoría absoluta que tenía en el Parlamento para afrontar una moción de confianza que se votará mañana. Acto seguido ha convocado una reunión de su gabinete tras comprobar que muchos miembros de su propio partido le dan la espalda.

http://www.eleconomista.es/interstitial/volver/ebancop/

Se cae el referendum?

Los futuros

Algo que me preocupó: Esta mañana consulté las valuaciones de los fondos de inversión en dólares de mi banco. Todos bajaron entre 6 y 7 puede puntos hoy. No tengo plata ahí, pero me preocupó que hubiera algún cambio en la fórmula de cálculo al reconvertirlo en pesos. Llamé a consultas, y me dicen que si, que hubo un cambio en la fórmula de reconversión. Obviamente la chica que me atendió no me dió más detalles. A los que saben: Qué puede ser? Me preocupa porque si hacen algo con los fondos que tienen activos dolarizados, podrían hacer lo mismo con bonos en dólares, por ejemplo?

Estimados, les pido a aquellos que vienen a la reunión cuponera que se organiza en otro foro (ya que aqui esta estrictamente prohibido organizarla) que pasen por el topic respectivo y confirmen su asistencia, asi como tambien que me manden sus mails para indicarles el camino al lugar del encuentro (top secret pseudo masónico). Abrazo leproso

Seba escribió:Papandreu se ha quedado solo...

El Gobierno de Grecia ha perdido la mayoría absoluta que tenía en el Parlamento para afrontar una moción de confianza que se votará mañana. Acto seguido ha convocado una reunión de su gabinete tras comprobar que muchos miembros de su propio partido le dan la espalda.

http://www.eleconomista.es/interstitial/volver/ebancop/

Se cae el referendum?

Sí, y Papandreu con el.