Mensajepor Mr_Baca » Mar Nov 08, 2011 1:50 pm
DJ Uruguay's GDP Growth Seen Slowing To 4% In 2012 - Central Bank
08-Nov-2011
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--Uruguay's economy will likely grow about 4% in 2012, down from an estimated 6% this year due to a slowdown in the economies of its main trading partners, a top policy maker said Tuesday.
Speaking at a conference in Buenos Aires, Central Bank of Uruguay President Mario Bergara said the country's stable economy, strong demand for its commodities exports, and reduced dependence on neighboring Argentina will provide a cushion for the economy next year.
"Uruguay is not the same as in 2001-02, when the economy was devastated" by Argentina's economic crisis and sovereign default, he said.
Today, Argentina buys 6% to 7% of Uruguay's exports, down from 20% to 25% in 2001, according to Bergara.
Brazil is now the destination for 20% of exports, which are mostly commodities like beef that can easily find other buyers if Brazilian demand were to wane, he said.
The economies of Argentina and Brazil are expected to grow at a slower pace in 2012 due to domestic factors as well as a more sluggish global economy.
Also playing in Uruguay's favor is a well regulated and capitalized banking system, Bergara said.
Argentina's 2001-02 crisis triggered a wave of bank failures in Uruguay due to chaotic deposit outflows and the interdependence of the two economies.
Argentina's decision to impose limits on foreign currency purchases in the last two weeks has spooked Argentines who can still remember the country's recent history of violent devaluations and financial crisis.
President Cristina Kirchner is seeking to stem capital flight that is slowly draining the Central Bank of Argentina's international reserves, which stood at $47.1 billion on Tuesday.
Argentines have an estimated $3 billion stashed in Uruguayan banks, but "if Argentines want to withdraw all their deposits, it won't hurt our banks," Bergara said.
