Mensajepor Kubrick » Mar Dic 06, 2011 5:06 pm
Argentina Macro Watch
Emerging Markets
Continuity in Cristina Kirchner's cabinet
Link to full report including important disclosures*
Argentina Macro Watch
Hernán Lorenzino was appointed as finance minister
Announced:
Tuesday, 6 December
Bottom line
n In a press conference, the presidential spokesman Alfredo Scoccimarro announced the Cabinet that President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner appointed for her second term. The current secretary of finance, Hernán Lorenzino, will replace future vice president Amado Boudou in the ministry of finance. Mercedes Marcó del Pont will continue as president of the central bank, as Julio De Vido (ministry of planning), Timerman (foreign affairs) and Nilda Garré (defense). Juan Manuel Abal Medina will be the new chief of cabinet. The only changes will then take place in the ministry of finance, at the chief of cabinet (as Aníbal Fernández left for Congress) and at the ministry of agriculture (Yahuar instead of Dominguez). Diego Bossio will remain as head of ANSeS.
Why it matters
n The announcement of the new minister of finance is clearly positive as it diminishes the probability of a further radicalization of policies in our view. It also keeps alive the probability of the government improving its relationship with creditors (Paris Club, ICSID, holdouts). In line with our view, it does not signal any strong change in policies. We expect a combination of orthodox policies (e.g., fiscal) and hetherodox ones (e.g., ad-hoc controls in various markets) in coming months.
n We believe that the appointment of Lorenzino as finance minister also signals that policymaking will continue to be fragmented and often-times contradictory, by contrast to what would be the case if Cristina Kirchner had appointed a minister of the type of Roberto Lavagna, with a more centralized decision process in the hands of the finance minister. This fragmented and contradictory process is not optimal, in our view, to face the challenges that the government has to face in coming months.
n The announcements do not change our view that activity will decelerate sharply in 2012E, to 1% from 5.5% in 2011E, but will avoid a crisis as commodity exports provide some cushion. The appointment of Lorenzino opens some upside risk to growth if he is able to pursue an agenda that puts Argentina back in capital markets.